• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern ENSO Updates

The GFS is also now picking up on the easterly trade wind burst near the dateline next week, check out the retrogression of the negative zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific (indicative of westward propagating Equatorial Rossby Waves)

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
 
whatalife said:
But we at lest have JB to pull us through......


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Honestly, from a nonphysical standpoint I feel better about my odds of an El Nino not verifying considering that's what Joe Bastardi is forecasting because almost all the time, he's dead wrong, so as long as you forecast the opposite you're okay lol... Rip our winter.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Honestly, from a nonphysical standpoint I feel better about my odds of an El Nino not verifying considering that's what Joe Bastardi is forecasting because almost all the time, he's dead wrong, so as long as you forecast the opposite you're okay lol... Rip our winter.
Click to expand...

LMBO! Nice...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Look at the SOI
318c6fa68f411a8c8daa08745238a2cb.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Though there have been two days of -SOI and though we may get another today, the SOI is headed for a resumption of positives shortly due to solidly above average Tahihiti SLPs being forecasted for several days. Then perhaps it will swing back toward neutral
to perhaps modest negatives as Tahiti falls back some followed by still another period of +SOIs due to high Tahiti SLPs. Bottom line: the chances of a solid -SOI July overall continue to drop and are now quite low. July MTD currently is averaging neutral but may very well end up rising to modest +SOI levels MTD as we get to near 7/22.
 
GaWx said:
Though there have been two days of -SOI and though we may get another today, the SOI is headed for a resumption of positives shortly due to solidly above average Tahihiti SLPs being forecasted for several days. Then perhaps it will swing back toward neutral
to perhaps modest negatives as Tahiti falls back some followed by still another period of +SOIs due to high Tahiti SLPs. Bottom line: the chances of a solid -SOI July overall continue to drop and are now quite low. July MTD currently is averaging neutral but may very well end up rising to modest +SOI levels MTD as we get to near 7/22.
Click to expand...

Yep. I'm not holding on to any hope of an El Niño developing this winter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife said:
Yep. I'm not holding on to any hope of an El Niño developing this winter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

IMO it's still really early. I'm leaning more neutral at this point . But , there is still time ................for things to get worse


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
^ Well, the good news for those wanting El Nino is that Nino 3.4 SSTs remain in weak Nino territory. In fact, even if they didn't warm any more (chances of that low imo), they could remain about where they are for the rest of the year and we still eek out a weak El Nino.
 
GaWx said:
^ Well, the good news for those wanting El Nino is that Nino 3.4 SSTs remain in weak Nino territory. In fact, even if they didn't warm any more (chances of that low imo), they could remain about where they are for the rest of the year and we still eek out a weak El Nino.
Click to expand...

Buttt if the trades continue to behave as they have been for the past 2-3 months, an El Nino will not develop because there wouldnt be much in the way of robust downwelling kelvin waves to reinforce those SSTAs
 
Fun times with all these ifs and butts and the reality is no one truly knows what will happen this winter.

For anyone to say they know is just crazy talk.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
i dont care if its weak el nino, neutral, they both have the southeast in pretty good shape to get a winter storm. At least its not stepping into la Nina.
 
accu35 said:
i dont care if its weak el nino, neutral, they both have the southeast in pretty good shape to get a winter storm. At least its not stepping into la Nina.
Click to expand...
I think what screwed us last winter was the positive QBO, we're entering a negative QBO this upcoming winter so we should be in a better shape.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top