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Pattern ENSO Updates

EPS Equatorial Pacific 850mb zonal wind forecast thru the end of August, strong easterly trades will continue to dominate the entire basin especially across the dateline. Chances even for a warm biased neutral ENSO winter are fading fast...
DHh3u3xXgAIf5hy.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS Equatorial Pacific 850mb zonal wind forecast thru the end of August, strong easterly trades will continue to dominate the entire basin especially across the dateline. Chances even for a warm biased neutral ENSO winter are fading fast...
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Webb,

Remind me not to dress you as Santa at the Christmas party! LOL ... ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS Equatorial Pacific 850mb zonal wind forecast thru the end of August, strong easterly trades will continue to dominate the entire basin especially across the dateline. Chances even for a warm biased neutral ENSO winter are fading fast...
View attachment 878
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So you are saying cancel winter. Wonderful


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Idk if la nina will happen or not. If we can see 1 good winterstorm or 2 ill be happen. Anything better than the last 2 years.
 
^ Actually, whereas I still feel that the chances of a cold SE winter went down solidly once El Nino failed and I'm not going to back down from that, I don't think that the rising chance of a weak Nina vs neutral makes those chances any lower.. If anything, they rise back to the avg for all winters. Here's why using KATL as a proxy for the SE as a whole:

Coldest 20% were: 1/7 of SEN, 1/3 of MEN to WEN, 1/8 of N, 1/5 of WLN, 1/7 of MLN, 1/14 of SLN

Clearly, one can see that MEN to WEN is the sweet spot. Once that is missed, the chance plunges from 1/3 to 1/8 when going to N. However, it actually is better to be in the WLN area vs N with 1/5 or average chance for all winters. Now, if it cooled further to MLN and especially SLN territory, chances would look worse again to have a top 20% cold winter.

Coldest 10% were: 0% of SEN, 1/4 of MEN to WEN, 1/18 of N, 1/8 of WLN, 1/16 of MLN, 0% of SLN

Similar pattern to top 20%. A WLN winter's chances of being very cold are pretty close to the chance for all winters, combined.

Summary: if we can't get a WEN/MEN, which is by far the best option, then I'd rather be at WLN than anything else for the best shot at a cold SE winter since it gives us a near average chance even though that chance is well below 50% since well under 50% of all winters are cold. All other ENSO have resulted in below average chances.


Note that I started SLN at -1.3 and MLN at -0.9 to even distribution out vs WLN
 
^ I forgot to mention this. For KATL, there were 3 of the 20% coldest winters that were WLN: 1894-5, 1903-4, and 1917-8. All 3 were huge there regarding wintry precip! Check you local area to see how you did. Even lowly SAV had wintry in all 3 and at least one high below 32, a rare thing!
 
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GaWx said:
^ I forgot to mention this. For KATL, there were 3 of the 20% coldest winters that were WLN: 1894-5, 1903-4, and 1917-8. All 3 were huge there regarding wintry precip! Check you local area to see how you did. Even lowly SAV had wintry in all 3 and at least one high below 32, a rare thing!
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Yeah in 1903-04 I actually have picked up on a winter storm that hit central NC a week before November... This is just plain bizarre...
October 24-25 1903 NC Snowmap.png
 
GaWx said:
^ I forgot to mention this. For KATL, there were 3 of the 20% coldest winters that were WLN: 1894-5, 1903-4, and 1917-8. All 3 were huge there regarding wintry precip! Check you local area to see how you did. Even lowly SAV had wintry in all 3 and at least one high below 32, a rare thing!
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There was a big dog in December 1917, arguably one of the coldest months on record in the Carolinas...
December 12-13 1917 NC Snowmap.png
 
La Niña chances (mainly weak) continue to increase based on recent trends.
 
Well ok then
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Webberweather53 said:
Anything from cold neutral to borderline strong NINA is legitimately on the table at the moment with a low-mid grade moderate event seeming to be the current consensus
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I'd like to see a weak Niña (say, a peak of -0.6 to -0.9) rather than a stronger Niña or a cold neutral for the best shot (which would mean avg shot) at a colder than normal SE winter. Whereas I still feel that the chances of a cold SE winter went down solidly once El Nino failed and I'm not going to back down from that, I don't think that the rising chance of a weak Nina vs neutral makes those chances any lower. If anything, they rise back to the avg for all winters. Here's why using KATL as a proxy for the SE as a whole:

Coldest 20% were: 1/7 of SEN, 1/3 of MEN to WEN, 1/8 of N, 1/5 of WLN, 1/7 of MLN, 1/14 of SLN

Clearly, one can see that MEN to WEN is the sweet spot. Once that is missed, the chance plunges from 1/3 to 1/8 when going to N. However, it actually is better to be in the WLN area vs N with 1/5 or average chance for all winters. Now, if it cooled further to MLN and especially SLN territory, chances would look worse again to have a top 20% cold winter. With the chances of MLN increasing per Webber, the near average chance for a cold SE winter would drop to below average chance. Should it go all of the way to SLN, the chance would drop down to very low. I'm still giving WLN a decent chance.

**Edit: These stats are based on defining weak Niña as -0.5 to just under -0.9 peak trimonthly. Moderate is -0.9 to just under -1.3. Strong is -1.3 and beyond. Generally, to get a weak Niña, the peak trimonthly pretty much needs to get to near -0.6 though a -0.5 peak trimonthly weak Niña isn't impossible.
 
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A little bit. La Niña usually get classified when it is below -.5 C for three months.
 
Nino 3.4 rose from -0.6 to -0.4 in today's weekly release. That's a little bit of good news for those who'd prefer any possible La Nina be weak. However, there's still a long way to go.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I didn't see that coming.... Good news for sure.
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In that this recent trend significantly reduces the chance for a moderate to strong La Nina, I agree 100% and I'm glad to see it. However, although a weak El Nino is most preferred based on history, that same history also says that a weak La Nina is somewhat better on average than neutral. Let's see where this goes.
 
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It looks like cooling in 3.4 has resumed in a big way per TAO & this is being supported by a solid +SOI & cool subsfc. So, we may very well be on the doorstep of La Niña. I can't yet eliminate even the chance for moderate Niña though I currently favor weak.
 
Today's report has Nino 3.4 having cooled a whopping 0.5 from the prior week down to -0.5, A one week cooling of 0.5 in Nino 3.4 is a big deal as there have been only two faster coolings in one week there since at least 1990, -0.6 last year during June and -0.7 during June of 1998. There was a 0.5 cooling in Oct of 2007.
 
GaWx said:
Today's report has Nino 3.4 having cooled a whopping 0.5 from the prior week down to -0.5, A one week cooling of 0.5 in Nino 3.4 is a big deal as there have been only two faster coolings in one week there since at least 1990, -0.6 last year during June and -0.7 during June of 1998. There was a 0.5 cooling in Oct of 2007.
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Not what we wanted to see, but thanks Larry for keeping us up to date. Can't deny, I am a little nervous now.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Not what we wanted to see, but thanks Larry for keeping us up to date. Can't deny, I am a little nervous now.
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Don't fret as a weak La Niña (peak under -0.9) for the trimonthly max could very well still be where we end up. That per history would give the SE US a decent shot at a cold winter along with the chance for normal or warm.
 
I've learned more about ENSO over the last two years from you and Webber and others. Thanks for the updates!!! I will say im getting a bit nervous because usually when things look good they end up bad and when things look iffy the end up bad as well. But with that said, the information is greatly appreciated and is hopefully being retained so that one day I'll know what a going on

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