• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern ENSO Updates

GaWx said:
Looking at the 12Z model consensus, I still do not yet see a clear indication of anything resembling the sustained solid -SOI streak of June returning. This takes us well into the first week of August. That's even after taking into account that my model consensus based Tahiti SLP estimates have been coming in about 1 mb too high at Tahiti.
Click to expand...

Ditto to the above. Another day with no change/no clear indication of anything resembling the sustained solid -SOI streak of June. So, the non-Nino friendly enhanced easterlies look to rule for the foreseeable future (say at least into the 1st week of August).
 
I am NOT trying to drive readers to drinking. And please put the guns down as I'm merely a messenger:

Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.
 
GaWx said:
I am NOT trying to drive readers to drinking. And please put the guns down as I'm merely a messenger:

Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.
Click to expand...

Well I have to pt the gun somewhere and this is not good news .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
I am NOT trying to drive readers to drinking. And please put the guns down as I'm merely a messenger:

Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.
Click to expand...
Sounds dead to me now. If no Nino, then what can we get with a neutral ENSO or at lowest a weak Nina? I just hope we can all score somthing at least once, but I am beginning to think another dry and cold winter is coming soon. Had far too many wet warm winters. Can we just get a cold Christmas?
 
Im still saying weak Nini/Neutral at best. You still can have incredible winterstorms out of it. Said it before, i rather take my chances at a Neutral than a strong Nino to fell us all.
 
Definitely can't rule out a NINA this winter tbh, transitions from NINO >>> NINA (even in the case of weak events where Bjerknes feedback is weak ) are typically much more swift than the other way around...
nino34.png
 
Your daily reminder that NINO 3.4 SSTAs are free falling and are about to go negative... Guess the Atmospheric ENSO Index (AEI) wasn't so far out in left field after all eh? :)
nino34.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Sounds dead to me now. If no Nino, then what can we get with a neutral ENSO or at lowest a weak Nina? I just hope we can all score somthing at least once, but I am beginning to think another dry and cold winter is coming soon. Had far too many wet warm winters. Can we just get a cold Christmas?
Click to expand...

Even though the best chance to get a major snow is with El Niño, most of the main active posters could easily score one major snowstorm (excluding Phil, wxdog, and myself of course since major snows there are pretty rare though certainly not impossible by any means) during any ENSO, especially if it isn't a moderate to strong La Niña. Actually, if it ends up cold neutral, that's historically the best ENSO for major ZR or sleet in ATL and vicinity.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Even though the best chance to get a major snow is with El Niño, most of the main active posters could easily score one major snowstorm (excluding Phil, wxdog, and myself of course since major snows there are pretty rare though certainly not impossible by any means) during any ENSO, especially if it isn't a moderate to strong La Niña. Actually, if it ends up cold neutral, that's historically the best ENSO for major ZR in ATL and vicinity.
Click to expand...
From what I have experienced for my area, Nina years seem to give dry and cold weather, but we end up scoring big if a storm comes. El Nino years we get snow, just not as much.
 
GaWx said:
Even though the best chance to get a major snow is with El Niño, most of the main active posters could easily score one major snowstorm (excluding Phil, wxdog, and myself of course since major snows there are pretty rare though certainly not impossible by any means) during any ENSO, especially if it isn't a moderate to strong La Niña. Actually, if it ends up cold neutral, that's historically the best ENSO for major ZR in ATL and vicinity.
Click to expand...
Larry,
Honestly, your honesty and candor are far more appreciated than you'll ever know, but with fingers crossed and some weird something or other none of us can see happening, maybe we won't be excluded ... someday ... maybe again ... LOL
But, I'll keep studying and if it does happen, hopefully I can see it coming and post it as it develops ... :p
Though odds on, and more power to you, my bet is that you alert me!
 
Last edited:
Despite the ENSO- neutral forecast lean, we still have a fair number of models forecasting at least a weak El Nino through the upcoming winter. Therefore, forecasters certainly are not ruling out the development of El Nino; in fact, they are calling for an elevated chance, relative to average, of El Nino onset."- NOAA
 
accu35 said:
Despite the ENSO- neutral forecast lean, we still have a fair number of models forecasting at least a weak El Nino through the upcoming winter. Therefore, forecasters certainly are not ruling out the development of El Nino; in fact, they are calling for an elevated chance, relative to average, of El Nino onset."- NOAA
Click to expand...

Source?
 
GaWx said:
With TAO and the weeklies having recently cooled 0.2+ and the July SOI headed for a sold +, I have no choice but to reduce the odds in my mind for an oncoming El Nino this year. Previously, I had said the chances were "very good".

If one wants El Nino, one cannot like how high Tahiti's SLP is going to end up this month. For 7/1-20. it is averaging 1015. I'm projecting it will approach or even reach 1019 tomorrow and still be near 1018 the day after. Here are my educated guesses for the rest of the month based on the 12Z models:

7/21: 1019
7/22: 1018
7/23: 1016.5
7/24: 1015
7/25: 1014.5
7/26: 1014
7/27: 1014.5
7/28: 1015
7/29: 1015
7/30: 1015

If the above projections were to come close to verifying, the full July 2017 Tahiti averaged SLP would come out to ~1015.2, which is a full mb above the longterm average for all years since 1950. That 1015.2 may even be a little conservatively low as the EPS would imply that it get up to ~1015.35. Here are some Tahiti averages for various oncoming ENSO:

Strong Nino: 1013.4
Weak to Mod Nino: 1013.9
Weak to mod Nina: 1014.3
Strong Nina: 1015.2

So, Tahiti's 2017 SLP is now projected to come in near the average for an oncoming strong La Nina. As a matter of fact, every single instance of Tahiti being 1015.0+ in July since 1950 (8 of them) was an oncoming La Nina year. OTOH, every single one of those 8 cases had an AMJ trimonthly Nino 3.4 that was negative vs 2017's +0.5. So, I'm not at all saying it means we're likely headed for La Nina. But I am saying that the chances for El Nino have dropped quite a bit in my mind over the last month. Consider this: for every El Nino since 1950 that was oncoming (24 of them), Tahiti's SLP was never higher than 1014.7!
Click to expand...

After being too low at Tahiiti by ~1 mb/day for the first few days, the last few days have come in higher by over 1 mb/day. Translation: the full July, 2017, average Tahiti SLP is once again aiming for a very unfriendly to El Nino ~1015.2.
 
GaWx said:
After being too low at Tahiiti by ~1 mb/day for the first few days, the last few days have come in higher by over 1 mb/day. Translation: the full July, 2017, average Tahiti SLP is once again aiming for a very unfriendly to El Nino ~1015.2.
Click to expand...
"Like" for the analysis, not for the report ... o_O
BTW - tropics half way around the world killed us last winter ...
 
accu35 said:
Despite the ENSO- neutral forecast lean, we still have a fair number of models forecasting at least a weak El Nino through the upcoming winter. Therefore, forecasters certainly are not ruling out the development of El Nino; in fact, they are calling for an elevated chance, relative to average, of El Nino onset."- NOAA
Click to expand...
chances of a nino are fadding pretty quickly.... in fact... better chance of a nina at the rate were going.... agree with eric....
 
tennessee storm said:
chances of a nino are fadding pretty quickly.... in fact... better chance of a nina at the rate were going.... agree with eric....
Click to expand...
im not saying we will have us a Nino this year, in fact im in agreement of what webb was saying. But you cant rule out the chance of an onset weak nino and you cant rule out a Nina. My thinking is and still will be is a Neutral. I said this many times before ill take my chances anyways with neutral than a strong El Nino to screw us up. If we get a cold neutral which is a very good possibility than we someone in the southeast could score big.
 
GaWx said:
Ok, I've seen enough model runs. Consistent with my recent posts, I'm now predicting near +7 for the full July SOI with a range of +5 to +9. This is based on a rough estimate of +11 for 7/17-31 combined with +3 for 7/1-16.

I'll need to reexamine my analogs. This will likely mean I reduce the Niño chance slightly from "very good" to "good" in deference to El Niño "cancel" analogs like 1932, 1993, and 2012 considering this month's rather solid +SOI combined with the continued model lean toward neutral positive. However, because the monthly SOI is often jumpy in summer in oncoming weak Niño years, Niño 3.4 is still in weak Niño range should it remain near there for several more months, and that same model consensus was too cool for June, I'm not likely to yet go anywhere near "Niño cancel".

As far as my 1"+ snow chances this winter, this doesn't change anything as it is still near the longterm average of 7% in my mind.
Click to expand...

Not only did 3.4 plunge from +0.4 to 0.0 last week per today's weekly release, but more significantly to me the upper ocean heat content plunged nearly 0.5 from +0.3 down almost to -0.2! I've decided to already go with El Niño "cancel" after thinking just a month ago that El Niño had a "very good" chance. As you can read above, I didn't think I was going to go all of the way to "cancel" as of just 15 days ago. It isn't just that 3.4 is down to 0.0, but also the combination of a 1015.2 July SLP at Tahiti and the upper OHC plunging to negative.

So, this is an absolute epic fail on my part. This looks similar to 1993 more than anything since 1950 and looks even more like Eric's 1932 analog as of this point. Though even Eric said as late as late June that he couldn't then eliminate a weak Niño since 3.4 was at that time already bordering on levels that could have attained a weak Niño were it to remain near there for several months (the weeklies got to as high as +0.7 for consecutive weeks in late June), he really obliterated me on this as he repeatedly said he thought no El Niño with ample backing for his reasoning vs my "very good chance" for El Niño as of just a month ago. There is minor consolation for me in getting very close to the full July SOI by predicting near +7 as per the quoted post from July 16th. It ended up at +6.51. But that is just minor consolation for this epic failure of mine in going "very good" chance for El Niño.
 
GaWx said:
Not only did 3.4 plunge from +0.4 to 0.0 last week per today's weekly release, but more significantly to me the upper ocean heat content plunged nearly 0.5 from +0.3 down almost to -0.2! I've decided to already go with El Niño "cancel" after thinking just a month ago that El Niño had a "very good" chance. As you can read above, I didn't think I was going to go all of the way to "cancel" as of just 15 days ago. It isn't just that 3.4 is down to 0.0, but also the combination of a 1015.2 July SLP at Tahiti and the upper OHC plunging to negative.

So, this is an absolute epic fail on my part. This looks similar to 1993 more than anything since 1950 and looks even more like Eric's 1932 analog as of this point. Though even Eric said as late as late June that he couldn't then eliminate a weak Niño since 3.4 was at that time already bordering on levels that could have attained a weak Niño were it to remain near there for several months (the weeklies got to as high as +0.7 for consecutive weeks in late June), he really obliterated me on this as he repeatedly said he thought no El Niño with ample backing for his reasoning vs my "very good chance" for El Niño as of just a month ago. There is minor consolation for me in getting very close to the full July SOI by predicting near +7 as per the quoted post from July 16th. It ended up at +6.51. But that is just minor consolation for this epic failure of mine in going "very good" chance for El Niño.
Click to expand...
You're candor (as Phil has pointed out before) is amazingly refreshing! Larry you're research and contribution is great, we were all hoping for your analog to come to fruition but that's weather.... I love reading your post, keep it up!!
 
Good ole JB
8d176b5aad891e80d8954856edc793b9.jpg


Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
To JB's credit and I do mean this sincerely, he is also being candid about the El Nino chances going bye bye. The JB of old tended to stubbornly hold onto his forecast ideas in the face of indicators going the other way and he may have even downplayed this major cooldown in Nino 3.4. However, assuming he really is saying El Nino cancel, will he warm his winter forecast for much of the E US, especially mid-Atlantic southward (especially SE) where El Nino's, especially weak ones, average chilly? I'm skeptical he will do so due to his strong cold bias for winter in the E US. He may use some other reason like latching onto the approaching deep solar minimum. I'm not saying this winter can't still be cold in the SE by the way though I feel its chances have gone down quite a bit from where I had thought they were due to the Nino cancel.
 
Geat job Larry. Idk i just hope we still can cash in on winterstorms and some cold spells regardless of what the outcome be. How many times have we called for a cold/snowy winter and failed, how many times we called for an warm/mild winter and failed and end up being the opposite. The point of this is no one really knows whats going to happen. I still think we will have a better winter than last 2 years. It really gets to me when ppl give up on winter just because we may not have a Nino.
 
pcbjr said:
IMHO it is far too early to start winter forecasting ... give it 7 or 8 weeks to begin to see where the stars align ... just my humble opinion ... :confused:
Click to expand...
Your right, and im thankful for the great ppl on here for giving us the up to date info analysis. Even if we end up with Neutral or Nina we still have pretty good chances as in cold and storms.
 
accu35 said:
Geat job Larry. Idk i just hope we still can cash in on winterstorms and some cold spells regardless of what the outcome be. How many times have we called for a cold/snowy winter and failed, how many times we called for an warm/mild winter and failed and end up being the opposite. The point of this is no one really knows whats going to happen. I still think we will have a better winter than last 2 years. It really gets to me when ppl give up on winter just because we may not have a Nino.
Click to expand...
Nino years have never seemed to work out for big storms around here. I would rather take my chances and have less precipitation and a huge storm than warmth in winter like the last Nino winters and the Nino like Nina-neutral. Opposites seem to happen a lot, so let's see lots of warm/ dry forecasts! :p
pcbjr said:
IMHO it is far too early to start winter forecasting ... give it 7 or 8 weeks to begin to see where the stars align ... just my humble opinion ... :confused:
Click to expand...
I would say give it to then as well. Until then, hope it stays cool! I think we will heat up again in September, then drop off for late fall.
 
accu35 said:
Geat job Larry. Idk i just hope we still can cash in on winterstorms and some cold spells regardless of what the outcome be. How many times have we called for a cold/snowy winter and failed, how many times we called for an warm/mild winter and failed and end up being the opposite. The point of this is no one really knows whats going to happen. I still think we will have a better winter than last 2 years. It really gets to me when ppl give up on winter just because we may not have a Nino.
Click to expand...
Another thing to keep in mind is the last 2 winters were very warm, yet parts of the southeast were only a warm nose away from cashing in both seasons.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Nino years have never seemed to work out for big storms around here. I would rather take my chances and have less precipitation and a huge storm than warmth in winter like the last Nino winters and the Nino like Nina-neutral. Opposites seem to happen a lot, so let's see lots of warm/ dry forecasts! :p

I would say give it to then as well. Until then, hope it stays cool! I think we will heat up again in September, then drop off for late fall.
Click to expand...
IKR.... About every year around Labor Day weekend summer goes on one last hurrah.
 
Storm5 said:
If JB says no nino we should all be jumping with joy. That means we smash record lows and have a 93 redux . Remeber , Reality will AlWAYS be opposite of what JB says

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

It'll be the one year he's right...SMH!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
If JB says no nino we should all be jumping with joy. That means we smash record lows and have a 93 redux . Remeber , Reality will AlWAYS be opposite of what JB says

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I agree lol, prepare for Glory
 
Amazingly enough, though La Nina looked extremely unlikely and way less likely to me than El Nino as of just 1.5 months ago, I think it has almost reversed with La Nina looking to me to be much more likely than El Nino. This is because El Nino looks just about totally dead now due to the current negative anomalies of OHC/surface coupled with momentum going in the La Nina direction. I'd say that IF it ends up being neutral that cold neutral is favored over warm neutral right now. Neutral is probably most favored right now per model consensus, but I really have to wonder if La Nina's chance is higher than one may think. Here's why:

The July 2017 Tahiti SLP ended up being 1015.4 mb. No July Tahiti SLP of 1015 mb+ since at least 1950 hasn't lead into La Nina and there were 8 of them. When considering that in combination with the recent plunge of SSTs and OHC as well as +SOI still being favored for the forseeable future, I have to wonder if a weak La Nina is coming even though I'm not predicting that. Could it end up being a late oncoming La Nina like 1967-8 or 1984-5? After this really bad "El Nino fail", I think weak La Nina needs to be considered a reasonable possibility even if not as likely as neutral.
 
ForsythSnow said:
How low could that go? Lol all those calls for a Nino are long gone. Drops like that are why analog forecasts issued before October fail.
Click to expand...
accu35 said:
whats this mean? Thanks
Click to expand...

It could feasibly enter moderate territory, as i mentioned on this thread a month or two ago, the transitions between NINO >>> NINA are often faster than NINA >>> NINO due to the greater efficiency of the bjkernes feedback in NINOs and other negative feedbacks that terminate El Ninos (esp strong events)...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top