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Pattern ENSO Updates

Webberweather53 said:
Not so fast... There's also very strong evidence that another failed event occurred in the spring and summer of 1932 which like 1993-94 faded to a warm neutral event by the boreal winter. In fact, using an experimental extended MEI index (MEI.ext) w/ COBE SST2 and HADSLP2 (which utilizes some of the adjustments I implemented in the NCEP-NCAR MEI, most notably 30-year sliding base periods that remove the long term warming signal in the data), I note that the MEI bi-monthly values virtually exceeded 1.0 for 4 successive bi-monthly periods from Mar-Apr 1932 thru Jun-Jul 1932...

Here's a bi-monthly MEI value table for Mar-Apr thru Jun-Jul with the latter (2017) adjusted w/ a 30-year sliding base period as was done in the COBE SST2+HADSLP2 MEI.ext index to remove the warming signal in the data... Note the sliding base period adjustment results in a very significant decrease in the recent bi monthly MEI.ext values, with 2017 potentially showing even less evidence for an El Nino than both 1993 and 1932...
Bi-Monthly Period Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul MEI Index
Year
1932 1.117 1.079 0.968 1.008 COBE SST2+HADSLP2 MEI.ext
1993 1.218 1.421 1.141 0.786 COBE SST2+HADSLP2 MEI.ext
2017 0.621 1.195 0.453 ??? ICOADS (Original MEI)
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Interestingly both 1932 and 1993, like this year came on the first full year removed from a preceding strong-super El Nino event (1930-31, 1991-92, and 2015-16) and failed to produce an El Nino in the subsequent winter despite exhibiting signs of an oncoming NINO in the spring and summer... I'm not saying we should automatically expect a similar result but this is very peculiar statistic that has some physical backing...
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Interestingly both 1932 and 1993, like this year came on the first full year removed from a preceding strong-super El Nino event (1930-31, 1991-92, and 2015-16) and failed to produce an El Nino in the subsequent winter despite exhibiting signs of an oncoming NINO in the spring and summer... I'm not saying we should automatically expect a similar result but this is very peculiar statistic that has some physical backing...
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Good info as usual.... so do we start looking toward winter 2018/19? Lol
 
GaWx said:
OK, but there's no need to get snappy about it. I was looking at an official MEI table that went back only to 1950:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html
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?? I wasn't getting snappy... Btw there's nothing "official" about that MEI index lol... I went to AMS in seattle and presented my work on an ensemble MEI/ONI index and talked with Klaus Wolter (who runs that index in real-time) and he like myself essentially said the index is becoming defunct and could use some serious revisions and upgrades and immediate application to climate models, etc.
 
Is it going to snow or not???LOL thats the main question for us southerns.
 
accu35 said:
Is it going to snow or not???LOL thats the main question for us southerns.
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My educated guess is no accumulation of snow for Phil and me, but we live where most years don't get it even during cold winters. However, a super cold SE outbreak does at least increase the chance for that rarity such as occurred at both places in 1989, 1977, and 1899 as well as in SAV in 1893 and 1895. SAV gets 0.1"+ of SN or IP 1 time every 5-6 years on avg. and 1"+ every 14 years on avg. The last 1"+ was in 1989. Decades with a documented storm having 1"+ of SN: 1980's (3), 1970's (2), 1960's (1), 1950's (1), 1890's (3), 1850's (2), 1830's (1+), 1800's (1+), 1740's (1). A few others in mid 1700's to early 1800's probably occurred based on CHS but finding documentation is tough. Decades with documented 0.5"+ IP and/or major ZR: 1 in each of 1930's, 1920's, 1910's. Of the 13 storms with sig wintry since the 1890's, only 4 were during El Niño, which is only about the same proportion as the % of winters with El Niño. 2 were during strong & 2 were during weak.
 
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GaWx said:
My educated guess is no accumulation of snow for Phil and me, but we live where most years don't get it even during cold winters. However, a super cold SE outbreak does at least increase the chance for that rarity such as occurred at both places in 1989, 1977, and 1899 as well as in SAV in 1893 and 1895. SAV gets 0.1"+ of SN or IP 1 time every 5-6 years on avg. and 1"+ every 14 years on avg. The last 1"+ was in 1989. Decades with a documented storm having 1"+ of SN: 1980's (3), 1970's (2), 1960's (1), 1950's (1), 1890's (3), 1850's (2), 1830's (1+), 1800's (1+), 1740's (1). A few others in mid 1700's to early 1800's probably occurred based on CHS but finding documentation is tough. Decades with documented 0.5"+ IP and/or major ZR: 1 in each of 1930's, 1920's, 1910's. Of the 13 storms with sig wintry since the 1890's, only 4 were during El Niño, which is only about the same proportion as the % of winters with El Niño. 2 were during strong & 2 were during weak.
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Larry,
What was 1899?
Phil

I'm resigned, but did voluntarily choose this lazy summer home ...

no-snow-for.jpg
 
GaWx said:
My educated guess is no accumulation of snow for Phil and me, but we live where most years don't get it even during cold winters. However, a super cold SE outbreak does at least increase the chance for that rarity such as occurred at both places in 1989, 1977, and 1899 as well as in SAV in 1893 and 1895. SAV gets 0.1"+ of SN or IP 1 time every 5-6 years on avg. and 1"+ every 14 years on avg. The last 1"+ was in 1989. Decades with a documented storm having 1"+ of SN: 1980's (3), 1970's (2), 1960's (1), 1950's (1), 1890's (3), 1850's (2), 1830's (1+), 1800's (1+), 1740's (1). A few others in mid 1700's to early 1800's probably occurred based on CHS but finding documentation is tough. Decades with documented 0.5"+ IP and/or major ZR: 1 in each of 1930's, 1920's, 1910's. Of the 13 storms with sig wintry since the 1890's, only 4 were during El Niño, which is only about the same proportion as the % of winters with El Niño. 2 were during strong & 2 were during weak.
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Wow!! Thanks man. Im regionally from Florida my self and its very hard to get snow there. I think a few times i seen accumulation snow growing up. One i believe in 1996, 7 hrs of snow but never stuck until the last 30 min of the event. A few other time ive seen sleet/snow but barley. Where i live at now in southwest Alabama, i seen more winter events than the gulf coast due to the away from the salted warm ocean prob has something to due with it. Im in area where i can get from winterstorm to hurricanes.
 
accu35 said:
Wow!! Thanks man. Im regionally from Florida my self and its very hard to get snow there. I think a few times i seen accumulation snow growing up. One i believe in 1996, 7 hrs of snow but never stuck until the last 30 min of the event. A few other time ive seen sleet/snow but barley. Where i live at now in southwest Alabama, i seen more winter events than the gulf coast due to the away from the salted warm ocean prob has something to due with it. Im in area where i can get from winterstorm to hurricanes.
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Lived through a snow'cane once - in South Bend, Indiana ... was awesome.
http://www.southbendtribune.com/mul...ion_b7f1f4c0-8cf2-11e3-a196-001a4bcf6878.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1978
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
What was 1899?
Phil
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Weak La Nina.

ENSO peak for the fall/winter for the 13 most significant winter events since the 1890s at SAV:

12/1989: N
2/1989: SLN
3/1986: N
1/1977: WEN
2/1973: SEN
2/1968: WLN
2/1958: SEN
2/1934: MLN
1/1922: N
2/1914: WEN
2/1899: WLN
2/1895: WLN
1/1893: MLN to SLN

- So, 4 EN, 3 N, 6 LN...so nothing clearcut ENSOwise though the sample isn't large.
- Of these 13 winters at SAV, only 1976-7, 1967-8, 1957-8, 1894-5 cold; Near normal: 1985-6, 1972-3, 1933-4, 1913-4, 1898-9, 1892-3; Warm: 1989-90, 1988-9, 1921-2. So, only 4 cold, 6 normal, 3 warm.
- For the 3 biggest storms at GNV, 1 SLN, 1 WEN, 1 WLN; 1 cold, 1 norm, 1 warm
 
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GaWx said:
Weak La Nina.

ENSO peak for the fall/winter for the 13 most significant winter events since the 1890s at SAV:

12/1989: N
2/1989: SLN
3/1986: N
1/1977: WEN
2/1973: SEN
2/1968: WLN
2/1958: SEN
2/1934: MLN
1/1922: N
2/1914: WEN
2/1899: WLN
2/1894: WLN
1/1893: MLN to SLN

- So, 4 EN, 3 N, 6 LN...so nothing clearcut ENSOwise though the sample isn't large.
- Of these 13 winters at SAV, only 1976-7, 1967-8, 1957-8 cold; Near normal: 1985-6, 1972-3, 1933-4, 1913-4, 1898-9, 1892-3; Warm: 1989-90, 1988-9, 1921-2. So, only 3 cold, 6 normal, 3 warm.
- For the 3 biggest storms at GNV, 1 SLN, 1 WEN, 1 WLN; 1 cold, 1 norm, 1 warm
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Speaks volumes, and thanks!
 
pcbjr said:
Speaks volumes, and thanks!
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YW. Yeah, it means there's no historical based evidence that having El Niño does anything to increase winter storm chances in our Deep South locations. Also, even having a cold winter doesn't appear to matter much in our areas even though they normally occur when it gets quite cold at least for a few days thus allowing for a far south storm track/cold enough. Therefore, my talking about a good chance for El Niño has zero to do with my desire to see a major winter storm since there's no evidence of a correlation in my area though it appears to help, especially if strong enough, in areas much further inland for major SN chances like ATL. It is not based on a personal bias. It is based on cold hard data/facts, which is my normal way of analyzing.
 
GaWx said:
YW. Yeah, it means there's no historical based evidence that having El Niño does anything to increase winter storm chances in our Deep South locations. Also, even having a cold winter doesn't appear to matter much in our areas even though they normally occur when it gets quite cold at least for a few days thus allowing for a far south storm track/cold enough. Therefore, my talking about a good chance for El Niño has zero to do with my desire to see a major winter storm since there's no evidence of a correlation in my area though it appears to help, especially if strong enough, in areas much further inland for major SN chances like ATL. It is not based on a personal bias. It is based on cold hard data/facts, which is my normal way of analyzing.
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I hate to take up bandwidth, but this is worth 10 or more likes - so here they are! ;)

+++++++++++ ++++++
 
SOI is leaning towards (most days) positive for the next 2 weeks. July will end up + barring something unseen. That doesn't mean I'm saying Niño cancel but it does decrease chances some from the very good chances I've been mentioning.
 
GaWx said:
SOI is leaning towards (most days) positive for the next 2 weeks. July will end up + barring something unseen. That doesn't mean I'm saying Niño cancel but it does decrease chances some from the very good chances I've been mentioning.
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Honestly love candor. Such a rare commodity.
Thanks, Larry!
 
GaWx said:
YW. Yeah, it means there's no historical based evidence that having El Niño does anything to increase winter storm chances in our Deep South locations. Also, even having a cold winter doesn't appear to matter much in our areas even though they normally occur when it gets quite cold at least for a few days thus allowing for a far south storm track/cold enough. Therefore, my talking about a good chance for El Niño has zero to do with my desire to see a major winter storm since there's no evidence of a correlation in my area though it appears to help, especially if strong enough, in areas much further inland for major SN chances like ATL. It is not based on a personal bias. It is based on cold hard data/facts, which is my normal way of analyzing.
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I know its very hard to get any frozen stuff where you and phil are, but hey theres always a chance. Just like south Florida freak snow they had several years back in Jan 19,1977. The day it snowed in Miami with a dusting of light snow on palm trees, grass and other hard surfaces. Not used to being seen but to know theres always a freak chance, especially little further up to north Florida. As for my area and places like Birmingham, Alt, Huntsville and Tn we have better chances because were so far inland. Good post Larry.
 
Ok, I've seen enough model runs. Consistent with my recent posts, I'm now predicting near +7 for the full July SOI with a range of +5 to +9. This is based on a rough estimate of +11 for 7/17-31 combined with +3 for 7/1-16.

I'll need to reexamine my analogs. This will likely mean I reduce the Niño chance slightly from "very good" to "good" in deference to El Niño "cancel" analogs like 1932, 1993, and 2012 considering this month's rather solid +SOI combined with the continued model lean toward neutral positive. However, because the monthly SOI is often jumpy in summer in oncoming weak Niño years, Niño 3.4 is still in weak Niño range should it remain near there for several more months, and that same model consensus was too cool for June, I'm not likely to yet go anywhere near "Niño cancel".

As far as my 1"+ snow chances this winter, this doesn't change anything as it is still near the longterm average of 7% in my mind.
 
The failed NINO winter of 1932-33 is definitely a good example of what Larry was talking about wrt the modest correlation between major southern US winter storms and average wintertime temperatures...

I just finished my analysis of this big dog from mid December 1932 in NC...

December 16-17 1932 NC Snowmap.png

January 13-14 1933 NC Snowmap.png

cd2606-a000-5084-66f0-842b-b2-5cda-9dbe.197.15.52.42.prcp.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
For the 2nd week in a row, OISSTv2 weekly NINO 3.4 SSTAs fall, now down to +0.5C...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for
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Even the TAO graphic shows that it cooled down rather significantly last week vs the prior week.

For 7/20-22, Tahiti's SLP is likely to come in 1017.5+ and may peak near 1019 on 7/21! Translation: I'm looking for SOIs of +20s to near +30 during 7/20-22! July is well on its way to a healthy +SOI as per my recent posts.
 
pcbjr said:
Don't know if you consider yourself "deep south" (as I guess that's a relative term), but being the eternal optimist, remember this exchange from a couple days ago: http://southernwx.com/community/threads/enso-updates.146/page-8#post-33870
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I was referring to our locations like Gainesville and Savannah, where it hardly ever snows with significant accumulations, regardless of ENSO. In other words, there's no evidence per history that the already very low chance is lowered any more if there's no Nino vs if there is one though obviously the sample size of significant snows is small and, therefore, statistical credibility is rather low. However, for areas much further inland where significant snowfalls are way more frequent than SAV/GNV, like the specified Atlanta as well as where most active posters live, it would be better to have El Nino than not have it per longterm snowfall stats for chances for a major snowstorm.
 
GaWx said:
I was referring to our locations like Gainesville and Savannah, where it hardly ever snows with significant accumulations, regardless of ENSO. In other words, there's no evidence per history that the already very low chance is lowered any more if there's no Nino vs if there is one though obviously the sample size of significant snows is small and, therefore, statistical credibility is rather low. However, for areas much further inland where significant snowfalls are way more frequent than SAV/GNV, like the specified Atlanta as well as where most active posters live, it would be better to have El Nino than not have it per longterm snowfall stats for chances for a major snowstorm.
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I know. Just trying to be upbeat ... :rolleyes:
 
So, maybe weak el nino or neutral? Even if a neutral were to happen, i though we could do pretty fair with cold/possible winterstorms in the southeast. Speaking inland occurs? I mean much better than last year i hope.
 
Well, even if no el nino, then i will still be happy of having a neutral. Better than la nina. I remember couple years ago we enter fall/winter with a strong Nino and ended up being the worse winter with no stroms. So ill take my chances with Neutral than Nino. I was always told that your Neutral winters are good for winterstorms in the south.
 
With TAO and the weeklies having recently cooled 0.2+ and the July SOI headed for a sold +, I have no choice but to reduce the odds in my mind for an oncoming El Nino this year. Previously, I had said the chances were "very good".

If one wants El Nino, one cannot like how high Tahiti's SLP is going to end up this month. For 7/1-20. it is averaging 1015. I'm projecting it will approach or even reach 1019 tomorrow and still be near 1018 the day after. Here are my educated guesses for the rest of the month based on the 12Z models:

7/21: 1019
7/22: 1018
7/23: 1016.5
7/24: 1015
7/25: 1014.5
7/26: 1014
7/27: 1014.5
7/28: 1015
7/29: 1015
7/30: 1015

If the above projections were to come close to verifying, the full July 2017 Tahiti averaged SLP would come out to ~1015.2, which is a full mb above the longterm average for all years since 1950. That 1015.2 may even be a little conservatively low as the EPS would imply that it get up to ~1015.35. Here are some Tahiti averages for various oncoming ENSO:

Strong Nino: 1013.4
Weak to Mod Nino: 1013.9
Weak to mod Nina: 1014.3
Strong Nina: 1015.2

So, Tahiti's 2017 SLP is now projected to come in near the average for an oncoming strong La Nina. As a matter of fact, every single instance of Tahiti being 1015.0+ in July since 1950 (8 of them) was an oncoming La Nina year. OTOH, every single one of those 8 cases had an AMJ trimonthly Nino 3.4 that was negative vs 2017's +0.5. So, I'm not at all saying it means we're likely headed for La Nina. But I am saying that the chances for El Nino have dropped quite a bit in my mind over the last month. Consider this: for every El Nino since 1950 that was oncoming (24 of them), Tahiti's SLP was never higher than 1014.7!
 
GaWx said:
With TAO and the weeklies having recently cooled 0.2+ and the July SOI headed for a sold +, I have no choice but to reduce the odds in my mind for an oncoming El Nino this year. Previously, I had said the chances were "very good".

If one wants El Nino, one cannot like how high Tahiti's SLP is going to end up this month. For 7/1-20. it is averaging 1015. I'm projecting it will approach or even reach 1019 tomorrow and still be near 1018 the day after. Here are my educated guesses for the rest of the month based on the 12Z models:

7/21: 1019
7/22: 1018
7/23: 1016.5
7/24: 1015
7/25: 1014.5
7/26: 1014
7/27: 1014.5
7/28: 1015
7/29: 1015
7/30: 1015

If the above projections were to come close to verifying, the full July 2017 Tahiti averaged SLP would come out to ~1015.2, which is a full mb above the longterm average for all years since 1950. That 1015.2 may even be a little conservatively low as the EPS would imply that it get up to ~1015.35. Here are some Tahiti averages for various oncoming ENSO:

Strong Nino: 1013.4
Weak to Mod Nino: 1013.9
Weak to mod Nina: 1014.3
Strong Nina: 1015.2

So, Tahiti's 2017 SLP is now projected to come in near the average for an oncoming strong La Nina. As a matter of fact, every single instance of Tahiti being 1015.0+ in July since 1950 (8 of them) was an oncoming La Nina year. OTOH, every single one of those 8 cases had an AMJ trimonthly Nino 3.4 that was negative vs 2017's +0.5. So, I'm not at all saying it means we're likely headed for La Nina. But I am saying that the chances for El Nino have dropped quite a bit in my mind over the last month. Consider this: for every El Nino since 1950 that was oncoming (24 of them), Tahiti's SLP was never higher than 1014.7!
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Dad gum, Man!
Fabulous analysis (except for the prognosis). ;)
Thanks, Larry!
Maybe something else will help us this year! I've been good, so Santa may yet reward ... LOL
Best as Always,
Phil
 
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pcbjr said:
Dad gum, Man!
Fabulous analysis (except for the prognosis). ;)
Thanks, Larry!
Maybe something else will help us this year! I've been good, so Santa may yet reward ... LOL
Best as Always,
Phil
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I'll take 2010/11 for the win. If I'm not mistaken that was a La Niña winter. Had two great winter storms for my area.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ECMWF ensemble suite is forecasting yet another major easterly trade wind burst, as strong or stronger than the current one, to take hold over the central Pacific near the end of the month and going into the first part of August

Screen Shot 2017-07-21 at 10.26.19 AM.png
 
Screen Shot 2017-07-21 at 11.34.20 AM.png BTW, ICYMI NOAA has just updated their global SST record from ERSSTv4 to ERSSTv5, that includes several major upgrades (including updated Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections (EOT) whose purpose is to essentially reconstruct the spatially and temporally complete SST fields from an often sparse, incomplete observational network, update from IOCADSv2.5 to ICOADS 3.0 that includes several million more observations in the tropical Pacific, inclusion of ARGO buoy data through 5m depth, updates to their sea ice via HADISST2.0, and reduction of optimal smoothing that improves the quality of their data, particularly in the modern era) all of which means their ONI data is likely to change yet again and there's liable to be some changes to my ENS ONI index when I update the QC criterion... I'll do my best to share the ONI data from ERSSTv5 thru 1865 asap.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/
 
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