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Pattern ENSO Updates

I'll be the first to say it...... If 3.4 doesn't warm up, or at least stay the same, we're doomed.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol saying we are doomed off of one factor is completely foolish. Every situation is different and I honestly can't see this winter being worse than last.
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I actually think were headed in the right direction. Cold is coming.
 
Amazing how water temps determines if our winter sucks or not. Dont make sense, but o well
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol saying we are doomed off of one factor is completely foolish. Every situation is different and I honestly can't see this winter being worse than last.
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It is near a statistical certainty that this winter won't be as warm in the SE as the last one, which was among the warmest 3 for many locations in the SE. That being said, I really hope the La Niña trimonthly Niño 3.4 peak doesn't get to -1.3 or colder. Fortunately, that's still a good ways off. The way these weeklies have worked in the past after two weeks of sharp cooling tells me there's a good chance there will at least be a temporary respite in the weekly cooling soon. In other words, it rarely keeps dropping fast for more than 2-3 weeks in a row.
One thing to keep in mind is that the max cooling from 10/4 to the winter cold peak since 1990 has only been 1.3C. If that were to
hold up in 2017-8, then the coldest the weeklies would go is -1.3C. A coldest of -1.3C for the weeklies would mean a trimonthly that is very likely no colder than -1.1C, which would be a middle grade moderate Niña rather than strong. (My moderate Niña cat starts at -0.9 and ends just before -1.3.) If we can get a cold Nov and a middle grade moderate or weaker Niña, we'd have more than a trivial shot at a cold winter based on history.

Edit: I respect CadWedge a lot. However, I don't think it is nearly that cut and dry. Yes, I'd much rather have a weak to moderate El Niño than anything else. But keep in mind that not even close to all of the cold winters were during weak to moderate El Niño even though they have a good percentage of them. Besides, if we can just get a near normal or even only a slightly warmer than normal winter, that would be a great improvement over the last 2.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Lol saying we are doomed off of one factor is completely foolish. Every situation is different and I honestly can't see this winter being worse than last.
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I think you misunderstood the context..... I was referring to the statistical probably of a cold winter with more than a weak La-nina in place. As you should be well aware of by now, the colder 3.4 gets, the less likely we are to have a cold winter. So when I say doomed, it means that our cold and snowy chances go way down as a stronger La-nina develops. Hope that helps you understand my post.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I think you misunderstood the context..... I was referring to the statistical probably of a cold winter with more than a weak La-nina in place. As you should be well aware of by now, the colder 3.4 gets, the less likely we are to have a cold winter. So when I say doomed, it means that our cold and snowy chances go way down as a stronger La-nina develops. Hope that helps you understand my post.
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You have a point, i just think that thats one factore against others. Who knows whats going to happen. One thing for sure models has been pretty strong with the cold, lets hope it continues through winter.
 
FYI, the moderate NINA composite using my ENS ONI index based on rankings is actually colder than the weak NINA or cool ENSO neutral composite...
 
Webberweather53 said:
FYI, the moderate NINA composite using my ENS ONI index based on rankings is actually colder than the weak NINA or cool ENSO neutral composite...
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Regardless, I would rather take my chances going into winter with a Weak Nina vs. Moderate / Strong Nina.
 
Largest weekly drop on record in Nino 3.4 (0.7) to -1.1!
 
East based NINAs are usually more conducive to North Atlantic blocking (especially early-mid winter) due to their alterations in mean heating center in the tropics although it's often nowhere near as profound as during NINO events... The current regime should favor at least some episodic blocking in the first half of winter, thereafter with descending EQBO regime, SE US ridge likely to becoming more prevalent esp in February and March
 
Webberweather53 said:
East based NINAs are usually more conducive to North Atlantic blocking (especially early-mid winter) due to their alterations in mean heating center in the tropics although it's often nowhere near as profound as during NINO events... The current regime should favor at least some episodic blocking in the first half of winter, thereafter with descending EQBO regime, SE US ridge likely to becoming more prevalent esp in February and March
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just curious, was 84-85 an east-based Nina?
 
Looks like my wish-casting might have worked this time.... lol. Seriously, this is certainly better news than last week's report.
 
GaWx said:
Today's 3.4 update was 0.3 warmer (-0.8), which increases the chance that the ONI peak (trimonthly) will only be weak Niña as opposed to moderate Niña vs how it looked last week.
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Yesterday's weekly 3.4 warmed very slightly from -0.8 to -0.7. But that is enough to continue to increase the chance even more that La Niña trimonthly will peak as weak to perhaps low level moderate (which I have starting at -0.9) vs higher level moderate.
 
Snowfan said:
The 12/11 update has it at -0.8 C.
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This only very slight cooling to -0.8, which is still 0.3 warmer than 3-4 weeks ago's -1.1, is even more encouraging news that supports that the Niña trimonthly peak will likely turn out to be only weak as by this time the weeklies are often either approaching or have already reached peak. Perhaps the weekly peak will turn out to be -1.1. If so, a -1.1 would favor a trimonthly peak of weak Niña. The TAO buoys and Cowan's graphs both pretty much support this idea. We'll see.
 
The 12/26 update goes down to - 1.0 C.
The 1/2 update goes up to - 0.6 C.
 
It still looks like a split between north of the equator and south of the equator. The south ( especially south east ) a moderate La Nina. the north is a slight El nino. I think the warmer North East has limited the effects of La Nina this year.
 
CPC says the La Niña will last until the spring then Neutral conditions.
 
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