Check out the latest weekly: 3.4 warmed a whopping 0.4 to +1.1!!
@Webberweather53 has been all over this
@Webberweather53 has been all over this
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Sure looks like we are headed for a summer/fall nino?
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif
snowlover91
Member
Noticed this when checking out the SST maps on tidbits. It appears there is some strong cooling ongoing in the EPAC, is this a data error or legit?
Here's the 7 day SST change.
The 1 + 2 region has showed an overall trend down.
I'm wondering if these are legit and if so what effect it could have on whether we see a full blown Nino developing or if it fades out over the next few months? Thoughts? Haven't really dug into things as I've had a lot going on lately with work.
Here's the 7 day SST change.
The 1 + 2 region has showed an overall trend down.
I'm wondering if these are legit and if so what effect it could have on whether we see a full blown Nino developing or if it fades out over the next few months? Thoughts? Haven't really dug into things as I've had a lot going on lately with work.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It'll likely have little-if any effect whatsoever, the NINO 1-2 region SSTAs are extremely noisy for one and two this is expected given where the far EP lies in KW phase space. Immediately in advance of a downwelling KW there's usually anomalous upwelling & that's what's currently affecting this area. SSTAs will dramatically rise in the NINO 1-2 region within the next few-several weeks once this downwelling KW reaches South America.
snowlover91
Member
It just seems like so far the Nino isn't really making much progress despite the strong WWB seen recently. The 1 + 2 region is in a downtrend since January, 4 is back down from the spike to levels seen the past few months, region 3 has dropped quite a bit and 3.4 is sort of in a holding pattern after the brief spike we saw.
And the overall 7 day change shows significant cooling over almost the entire region from the EPAC to CPAC.
Like I said though I don't typically follow Nino/Nina stuff all that closely and haven't done any digging into things, just on the surface so far it seems like the SST's as a whole are not making much if any progress at least based on the Tidbits maps... at the same time the subsurface heat anomalies are quite impressive and might indicate the potential for a mod to strong Nino forming too.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The recent cooling is related to subseasonal variability, the massive warming spike following the month-long WWB is not however and is a response to a lower frequency Kelvin Wave propagating across the Pacific. We're already virtually in a weak El Nino atm as most international agencies have already noted, virtually no progress beyond this point would still result in an El Nino this summer which is a detriment to the Atlantic hurricane season, especially when coupled w/ an active NE Pacific.
snowlover91
Member
Yeah the warming spike due to the WWB is pretty obvious but since then things have cooled off to about where they were previously. If we are going to get a mod to strong Nino we are going to need more of a sustained warming to take place rather than a brief spike that cools down to what temps were before the WWB (or even cooler in some regions).
I agree that we are in a weak Nino as well but whether that sustains, strengthens or weakens some is still not clear to me. I've heard a lot of chatter about a mod to strong Nino developing over the coming months on twitter and other sources, it'll be interesting to see if that does happen.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The temporary warming/cooling spikes are not unusual for borderline ENSO events but the underlying long-term tendency is for El Nino when the warming is being driven by low frequency variability while the subsequent cooling is not, that's really the point at I'm getting at here. The whole system is still clearly going towards El Nino and the warming spike, while temporary in space & time was attributable to changes that were shifting the entire system towards +ENSO, the cooling that's followed is occurring due to a modest easterly trade wind burst as most of the subeasonal forcing has shifted into the Maritime Continent (temporarily)
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Nino 3.4 is at 0.9 C.
snowlover91
Member
Subsurface heat is declining.
Not much in the way of WWB's to work with in the near future either.
The subsurface cooling is shown in this graphic pretty well, this region was much warmer a few weeks ago.
The Triton graphic is likely skewed too cold but it largely agrees with the one posted above with the general theme of colder subsurface SST's spreading and taking over in contrast with the warmer subsurface we saw last year at this time.
The CFSv2 is showing a decline into neutral territory.
As is this dataset
Overall I still remain quite skeptical of a full blown mod to strong Nino developing this year. In fact I myself am leaning towards the idea of a transition into a warmish neutral state by June or July, something in the .2 to .4C range. Obviously we are still in the spring barrier where things can change quickly but what I'm seeing so far leads me to believe we might have a neutral or weak Nina this upcoming winter. Many hurricane season outlooks are basing their predictions off an El Nino lasting through the peak of the season. If it actually weakens to neutral before then that could change things somewhat.. Still a long ways to go.
Not much in the way of WWB's to work with in the near future either.
The subsurface cooling is shown in this graphic pretty well, this region was much warmer a few weeks ago.
The Triton graphic is likely skewed too cold but it largely agrees with the one posted above with the general theme of colder subsurface SST's spreading and taking over in contrast with the warmer subsurface we saw last year at this time.
The CFSv2 is showing a decline into neutral territory.
As is this dataset
Overall I still remain quite skeptical of a full blown mod to strong Nino developing this year. In fact I myself am leaning towards the idea of a transition into a warmish neutral state by June or July, something in the .2 to .4C range. Obviously we are still in the spring barrier where things can change quickly but what I'm seeing so far leads me to believe we might have a neutral or weak Nina this upcoming winter. Many hurricane season outlooks are basing their predictions off an El Nino lasting through the peak of the season. If it actually weakens to neutral before then that could change things somewhat.. Still a long ways to go.
snowlover91
Member
Looks like an EWB is on the way if the GFS is correct.
pcbjr
Member
Larry,
Not exactly (as Bob Dylan might say) "my cup of meat." Big drop this time of year - please elucidate on probabilistic implications on 'Cane season.
Thanks!
Phil
snowlover91
Member
A neutral to weak Nina is one piece of the puzzle that can lead to more activity if other factors align as well. However there are quite a few other factors involved that will need to be watched as we approach hurricane season.
Nino 3.4 is back up to +0.7 C.
Nino 3.4 went up to +0.8 C.
Nino 3.4 went up to +1.0 C.
Tidbits and especially TAO buoys agree as both say El Niño has generally been restrengthening over the last couple of weeks:
And then consider the solidly -SOI, which has had 16 days in a row of negatives, whose 30 day average is down to
-9.24, and whose 90 day has dropped back down to -5.77, none of which is suggesting El Niño is likely ending anytime soon:
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
OTOH, the OHC has been cooling substantially for a number of months and is now neutral, itself not a sign of El Niño with legs:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt
But looking back at history via this above link, both 2002 and 1979 acted somewhat similarly with substantial cooling springtime OHCs before warming in summer and fall lead to El Niño for the subsequent fall and winter. So, the jury is still out for next fall/winter imo. In the near term, eq Pacific westerly winds are forecasted to abate, which in combo with this cooler OHC could easily mean at least a temporary cooling back down. If we have El Niño this fall/winter, a reasonable wild guess as of now would be a weak to low end moderate. But nobody really knows.
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New Nino 3.4 went down to 0.9 C.
snowlover91
Member
Nino seems to be hanging on, the recent WWB warmed the subsurface a bit and gave the Nino renewed strength to hang on. Currently an EWB is in progress but it doesn't seem to be affecting things much at this time.
Some very significant cooling over the ENSO regions over the past couple weeks.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Pulling for a Niña, winters really can’t get any worse! I’ve done well in Niñas
Fountainguy97
Member
El Niño is hurting.
I went back to the April and May period and this is the weakest heat signature we have seen and is also the strongest cold signature as Well.
I went back to the April and May period and this is the weakest heat signature we have seen and is also the strongest cold signature as Well.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've significantly updated and revised my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI), which now includes the brand new HADSST4 dataset in the analysis. The inclusion of this dataset helped improve the quality control constraints in the early part of the record, resulting in a very slight yet noticeable increase in the amplitude of pre-1950 ENSO events vs the previous version of this index. I suspect there's still some dampening occurring before 1950 due to the large spread between available datasets but I think this new version of the ENS ONI has taken another step in the right direction.
https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html
https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html
2010-11 and 2017-18 were Niña winters though, both produced above normal snowfall across most of the southeast. El Niño winters seem to be great for the NC mountains and mid-Atlantic, but suck for snow if you live south of I-85.Just like 2011-12!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
El Nino winters tend to benefit areas along/NW of I-85 the most like the Triad, western piedmont, etc. but I haven't seen much of a signal in either direction southeast of there in the Triangle and coastal plain. What really happens in most NINO winters is the seasonal gradients across the piedmont just get larger. From that standpoint, it can seem crappy if you're not in that favored corridor but holistically the winters aren't bad. There's simply too much internal variability and just a general lack of events SE of GSO to discern underlying ENSO tendencies in seasonal snowfall down here, and that's true even if you look at the entire RDU record and use the ENS ONI index I linked above. What you would see however if you compared GSO & RDU's records is that their seasonal snowfall difference in NINO winters gets larger but RDU is still within striking distance of average in NINO or NINA.
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pcbjr
Member
Webb,
To the untrained eye, it looks rather symmetrical ... ?
Thanks, Man!
Phil
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah there's definitely a centennial-scale cycle evident in the ENS ONI data, with ENSO being relatively active near the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, and more quiescent conditions in the middle of the 20th century. Whether or not this extremely low-frequency 100 ish year cycle in ENSO amplitude is actually a real, recurrent theme or just happened by chance remains to be seen but it's very interesting nonetheless.
pcbjr
Member
It doesn't really matter the ENSO state. We already know it'll be warm for the majority of winter. Just have to hope the two week winter we get meets up with moisture.
whatalife
Moderator
https://m.economictimes.com/news/po...as-el-nino-wanes/amp_articleshow/69949234.cms
Thoughts...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Thoughts...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
snowlover91
Member
El Nino is waning with all 4 sectors currently in a neutral state at the same time. Technically that would put us in a neutral to warm neutral state and if it holds the next few months could be a significant influence for hurricane season. With an active WAM and the possibility of reduced shear due to a neutral state... it could be an ugly hurricane season. Still a lot of variables and unknowns but not liking what I'm seeing right now.
accu35
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I'm not liking it either in the reason of Hurricanes, but could be good for our upcoming winter. Even if it's a neutral/warm neutral I'll take my chances. Thanks for the update.
snowlover91
Member
Just wanted to recap this post I made in April to summarize how things have evolved.
1. The subsurface cold pool has been largely maintaining and recently expanding/cooling further based on the Triton data set while surface anomalies have cooled and are less impressive than they were in April. April vs current (compare the bottom panel of each).
2. The seasonal models did a fairly good job of predicting a steady state to gradual weakening of the ENSO, at least the ones I looked at in April seemed to. While they are prone to errors they did prove to be useful as a guide in contrast to the mets on Twitter that at the same time were hyping up a moderate to strong Nino possibility that looks highly unlikely to verify.
3. My thoughts posted in April were as follows, "Overall I still remain quite skeptical of a full blown mod to strong Nino developing this year. In fact I myself am leaning towards the idea of a transition into a warmish neutral state by June or July, something in the .2 to .4C range. Obviously we are still in the spring barrier where things can change quickly but what I'm seeing so far leads me to believe we might have a neutral or weak Nina this upcoming winter. Many hurricane season outlooks are basing their predictions off an El Nino lasting through the peak of the season. If it actually weakens to neutral before then that could change things somewhat."
It appears my conclusion and prediction has verified quite well. As things stand now it appears we may be in for a bit more of an active hurricane season since it is becoming increasingly likely we will be in a neutral state or at best very weak Nino state that is centered more in the central Pacific.
pcbjr
Member
snowlover91
Member
Interesting article and seems to line up with the changes we are seeing in the SST anomalies in the Pacific.
Today’s 2 Euro runs suggest that after the next two days that there will be a dominating -SOI for most of the subsequent 8+ days (I think tomorrow and Saturday will actually be positive as Darwin comes down). Much of this is due to relatively high Darwin SLPs most days. As a matter of fact, 7/8 and 7/12 could be close to 1016 there. Also, Tahiti gets low late in the run. So, the most -SOIs of the next 10 days may actually end up toward the end.
Considering what lies ahead SOI-wise, El Niño could return within a few weeks though there often is a couple of week lag.
Considering what lies ahead SOI-wise, El Niño could return within a few weeks though there often is a couple of week lag.
pcbjr
Member
Simply put, El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin ... Let's hope and hope it stays through October, at least ...
July NMME much cooler for this summer/fall.
