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Pattern ENSO Updates

GaWx said:
Looking at the 12Z model consensus, I still do not yet see a clear indication of anything resembling the sustained solid -SOI streak of June returning. This takes us well into the first week of August. That's even after taking into account that my model consensus based Tahiti SLP estimates have been coming in about 1 mb too high at Tahiti.
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Ditto to the above. Another day with no change/no clear indication of anything resembling the sustained solid -SOI streak of June. So, the non-Nino friendly enhanced easterlies look to rule for the foreseeable future (say at least into the 1st week of August).
 
I am NOT trying to drive readers to drinking. And please put the guns down as I'm merely a messenger:

Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.
 
GaWx said:
I am NOT trying to drive readers to drinking. And please put the guns down as I'm merely a messenger:

Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.
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Well I have to pt the gun somewhere and this is not good news .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
I am NOT trying to drive readers to drinking. And please put the guns down as I'm merely a messenger:

Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.
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Sounds dead to me now. If no Nino, then what can we get with a neutral ENSO or at lowest a weak Nina? I just hope we can all score somthing at least once, but I am beginning to think another dry and cold winter is coming soon. Had far too many wet warm winters. Can we just get a cold Christmas?
 
Im still saying weak Nini/Neutral at best. You still can have incredible winterstorms out of it. Said it before, i rather take my chances at a Neutral than a strong Nino to fell us all.
 
Definitely can't rule out a NINA this winter tbh, transitions from NINO >>> NINA (even in the case of weak events where Bjerknes feedback is weak ) are typically much more swift than the other way around...
nino34.png
 
Your daily reminder that NINO 3.4 SSTAs are free falling and are about to go negative... Guess the Atmospheric ENSO Index (AEI) wasn't so far out in left field after all eh? :)
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ForsythSnow said:
Sounds dead to me now. If no Nino, then what can we get with a neutral ENSO or at lowest a weak Nina? I just hope we can all score somthing at least once, but I am beginning to think another dry and cold winter is coming soon. Had far too many wet warm winters. Can we just get a cold Christmas?
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Even though the best chance to get a major snow is with El Niño, most of the main active posters could easily score one major snowstorm (excluding Phil, wxdog, and myself of course since major snows there are pretty rare though certainly not impossible by any means) during any ENSO, especially if it isn't a moderate to strong La Niña. Actually, if it ends up cold neutral, that's historically the best ENSO for major ZR or sleet in ATL and vicinity.
 
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GaWx said:
Even though the best chance to get a major snow is with El Niño, most of the main active posters could easily score one major snowstorm (excluding Phil, wxdog, and myself of course since major snows there are pretty rare though certainly not impossible by any means) during any ENSO, especially if it isn't a moderate to strong La Niña. Actually, if it ends up cold neutral, that's historically the best ENSO for major ZR in ATL and vicinity.
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From what I have experienced for my area, Nina years seem to give dry and cold weather, but we end up scoring big if a storm comes. El Nino years we get snow, just not as much.
 
GaWx said:
Even though the best chance to get a major snow is with El Niño, most of the main active posters could easily score one major snowstorm (excluding Phil, wxdog, and myself of course since major snows there are pretty rare though certainly not impossible by any means) during any ENSO, especially if it isn't a moderate to strong La Niña. Actually, if it ends up cold neutral, that's historically the best ENSO for major ZR in ATL and vicinity.
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Larry,
Honestly, your honesty and candor are far more appreciated than you'll ever know, but with fingers crossed and some weird something or other none of us can see happening, maybe we won't be excluded ... someday ... maybe again ... LOL
But, I'll keep studying and if it does happen, hopefully I can see it coming and post it as it develops ... :p
Though odds on, and more power to you, my bet is that you alert me!
 
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Despite the ENSO- neutral forecast lean, we still have a fair number of models forecasting at least a weak El Nino through the upcoming winter. Therefore, forecasters certainly are not ruling out the development of El Nino; in fact, they are calling for an elevated chance, relative to average, of El Nino onset."- NOAA
 
accu35 said:
Despite the ENSO- neutral forecast lean, we still have a fair number of models forecasting at least a weak El Nino through the upcoming winter. Therefore, forecasters certainly are not ruling out the development of El Nino; in fact, they are calling for an elevated chance, relative to average, of El Nino onset."- NOAA
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Source?
 
GaWx said:
With TAO and the weeklies having recently cooled 0.2+ and the July SOI headed for a sold +, I have no choice but to reduce the odds in my mind for an oncoming El Nino this year. Previously, I had said the chances were "very good".

If one wants El Nino, one cannot like how high Tahiti's SLP is going to end up this month. For 7/1-20. it is averaging 1015. I'm projecting it will approach or even reach 1019 tomorrow and still be near 1018 the day after. Here are my educated guesses for the rest of the month based on the 12Z models:

7/21: 1019
7/22: 1018
7/23: 1016.5
7/24: 1015
7/25: 1014.5
7/26: 1014
7/27: 1014.5
7/28: 1015
7/29: 1015
7/30: 1015

If the above projections were to come close to verifying, the full July 2017 Tahiti averaged SLP would come out to ~1015.2, which is a full mb above the longterm average for all years since 1950. That 1015.2 may even be a little conservatively low as the EPS would imply that it get up to ~1015.35. Here are some Tahiti averages for various oncoming ENSO:

Strong Nino: 1013.4
Weak to Mod Nino: 1013.9
Weak to mod Nina: 1014.3
Strong Nina: 1015.2

So, Tahiti's 2017 SLP is now projected to come in near the average for an oncoming strong La Nina. As a matter of fact, every single instance of Tahiti being 1015.0+ in July since 1950 (8 of them) was an oncoming La Nina year. OTOH, every single one of those 8 cases had an AMJ trimonthly Nino 3.4 that was negative vs 2017's +0.5. So, I'm not at all saying it means we're likely headed for La Nina. But I am saying that the chances for El Nino have dropped quite a bit in my mind over the last month. Consider this: for every El Nino since 1950 that was oncoming (24 of them), Tahiti's SLP was never higher than 1014.7!
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After being too low at Tahiiti by ~1 mb/day for the first few days, the last few days have come in higher by over 1 mb/day. Translation: the full July, 2017, average Tahiti SLP is once again aiming for a very unfriendly to El Nino ~1015.2.
 
GaWx said:
After being too low at Tahiiti by ~1 mb/day for the first few days, the last few days have come in higher by over 1 mb/day. Translation: the full July, 2017, average Tahiti SLP is once again aiming for a very unfriendly to El Nino ~1015.2.
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"Like" for the analysis, not for the report ... o_O
BTW - tropics half way around the world killed us last winter ...
 
accu35 said:
Despite the ENSO- neutral forecast lean, we still have a fair number of models forecasting at least a weak El Nino through the upcoming winter. Therefore, forecasters certainly are not ruling out the development of El Nino; in fact, they are calling for an elevated chance, relative to average, of El Nino onset."- NOAA
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chances of a nino are fadding pretty quickly.... in fact... better chance of a nina at the rate were going.... agree with eric....
 
tennessee storm said:
chances of a nino are fadding pretty quickly.... in fact... better chance of a nina at the rate were going.... agree with eric....
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im not saying we will have us a Nino this year, in fact im in agreement of what webb was saying. But you cant rule out the chance of an onset weak nino and you cant rule out a Nina. My thinking is and still will be is a Neutral. I said this many times before ill take my chances anyways with neutral than a strong El Nino to screw us up. If we get a cold neutral which is a very good possibility than we someone in the southeast could score big.
 
GaWx said:
Ok, I've seen enough model runs. Consistent with my recent posts, I'm now predicting near +7 for the full July SOI with a range of +5 to +9. This is based on a rough estimate of +11 for 7/17-31 combined with +3 for 7/1-16.

I'll need to reexamine my analogs. This will likely mean I reduce the Niño chance slightly from "very good" to "good" in deference to El Niño "cancel" analogs like 1932, 1993, and 2012 considering this month's rather solid +SOI combined with the continued model lean toward neutral positive. However, because the monthly SOI is often jumpy in summer in oncoming weak Niño years, Niño 3.4 is still in weak Niño range should it remain near there for several more months, and that same model consensus was too cool for June, I'm not likely to yet go anywhere near "Niño cancel".

As far as my 1"+ snow chances this winter, this doesn't change anything as it is still near the longterm average of 7% in my mind.
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Not only did 3.4 plunge from +0.4 to 0.0 last week per today's weekly release, but more significantly to me the upper ocean heat content plunged nearly 0.5 from +0.3 down almost to -0.2! I've decided to already go with El Niño "cancel" after thinking just a month ago that El Niño had a "very good" chance. As you can read above, I didn't think I was going to go all of the way to "cancel" as of just 15 days ago. It isn't just that 3.4 is down to 0.0, but also the combination of a 1015.2 July SLP at Tahiti and the upper OHC plunging to negative.

So, this is an absolute epic fail on my part. This looks similar to 1993 more than anything since 1950 and looks even more like Eric's 1932 analog as of this point. Though even Eric said as late as late June that he couldn't then eliminate a weak Niño since 3.4 was at that time already bordering on levels that could have attained a weak Niño were it to remain near there for several months (the weeklies got to as high as +0.7 for consecutive weeks in late June), he really obliterated me on this as he repeatedly said he thought no El Niño with ample backing for his reasoning vs my "very good chance" for El Niño as of just a month ago. There is minor consolation for me in getting very close to the full July SOI by predicting near +7 as per the quoted post from July 16th. It ended up at +6.51. But that is just minor consolation for this epic failure of mine in going "very good" chance for El Niño.
 
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