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Pattern ENSO Updates

Webberweather53 said:
We had a big MJO wave near the termination of the northern monsoon over the West Pac in early September, a downwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave was generated and it's causing the warming that's currently being observed in the NINO 3.4 region. The +NPMM/-SPMM, mild tropical Atlantic, recent interannual-interdecadal variability/persistence suggests we're going to see a modoki/CP NINO this winter
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I had to slow down and read that carefully lol. The bigger question is, will this be the modoki we hope for or a flop? Time will tell.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I had to slow down and read that carefully lol. The bigger question is, will this be the modoki we hope for or a flop? Time will tell.
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Yeah the beginning part attempts to explain why the MJO wave occurred when it did. You tend to see large MJO pulses near the beginning and end of the monsoon season & we had a minor sudden stratospheric warming event in the southern Hemisphere that raised the tropical tropopause and increased the instability there, potentially favoring deeper convection over the warm pool during September.

As for the modoki being what we hope for, it remains to be seen (as usual). Only one or two storms will make or break our winter (large internal variability) and it's often a fools errand to try & predict if we'll get one of those near/south of the I-40 corridor because the large-scale pattern doesn't have to be necessarily correlated w/ total snow & ice here. Once you get into the northern US where winter storms occur more frequently than liquid precip in much of the winter, it's a much different story.
 
CPC seems to think the current warming in Niño 3.4 is temporary and not a shift back to El Niño, even if the atmosphere has been Niño-leaning at times:

"The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during November before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters believe this recent warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)."
 
CyclonicFury said:
CPC seems to think the current warming in Niño 3.4 is temporary and not a shift back to El Niño, even if the atmosphere has been Niño-leaning at times:

"The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during November before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters believe this recent warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)."
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They are going to ignore this particular Nino until it swims up and bites them in the a$$.
 
BHS1975 said:
So is this some kind of hybrid nino?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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From what I understand, it is and will likely be officially labeled as ENSO neutral as the index will fail to meet the defined threshold for NINO conditions. However, how is the atmosphere behaving? It seems to be acting NINOish, even if it's officially a warm neutral.
 
Rain Cold said:
From what I understand, it is and will likely be officially labeled as ENSO neutral as the index will fail to meet the defined threshold for NINO conditions. However, how is the atmosphere behaving? It seems to be acting NINOish, even if it's officially a warm neutral.
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That would be great. Lest we forget we had a technical nino last winter, which acted like a nina. Turnabout is fair play.
 
Snowfan said:
Nino 3.4 rose to 0.7 C.
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With weekly SSTs stubbornly remaining within lower end weak El Niño, there’s a chance that FMA will barely remain in lower end weak. If that happens, a very weak ONI based El Niño may end up being the case on the latest version of the ONI chart as 5 trimonthly +0.5 readings in a row would be achieved.

Looking ahead, is there a reasonable chance that weak El Niño will persist through summer? What about fall/winter? Any opinions?
 
GaWx said:
With weekly SSTs stubbornly remaining within lower end weak El Niño, there’s a chance that FMA will barely remain in lower end weak. If that happens, a very weak ONI based El Niño may end up being the case on the latest version of the ONI chart as 5 trimonthly +0.5 readings in a row would be achieved.

Looking ahead, is there a reasonable chance that weak El Niño will persist through summer? What about fall/winter? Any opinions?
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Sure hope we don’t see a Niño for a long long time ... ready reshuffle things. Give me a moderate strong La Niña
 
tennessee storm said:
Sure hope we don’t see a Niño for a long long time ... ready reshuffle things. Give me a moderate strong La Niña
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My feeling is that to really get a reshuffle, the best bet would be to finally get a relative cooling of the ridiculously warm W Pacific equatorial region as they’ve been largely in control the last few years regardless of ENSO.
 
SST’s have been dropping in the ENSO zones based on TT’s plots. Will it stay this way? Who knows.
C3FD5C17-CDB1-4246-A488-722890F19C1C.pngB10EA159-7ABA-4E42-B67C-A33A9051CC84.pngB209A49E-5FE6-4480-B7BB-9C46B8957504.png1BBEF440-F756-4742-9B62-8AEDB7E5CE2B.png
 
This looks great
1ae430dfc7839652a6acfc140994b881.plist



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MichaelJ said:
I think a moderate Nina is coming and that this winter will make last years look cold
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It will change many time between here and than. I'm not worried this far out, I've had the best luck with winter storms from Nina's. BRING IT
 
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