packfan98
Moderator
Just fixed it. I meant AR. I was just reading about the earthquake in Alaska.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Euro is amped but given how far out this is, the overall look is baby steps away from being something more substantial
That's all I need to hear atm now back to work....
packfan98
Moderator
I agree. The HP was much stronger and in a better position. The track of the low suddenly moved SE between hours 198 and 204. That looked very suspect to me. I'm not sure what to take away from it???
The biggest take away from the modeling the last week is that Winter is not looking like a total dud this year.
Of course, CAD is always underdone, and if the GFS is close to being correct with a Southern solution, Upstate SC/NE GA/NC areas are sitting pretty for this time of the year.
Of course, CAD is always underdone, and if the GFS is close to being correct with a Southern solution, Upstate SC/NE GA/NC areas are sitting pretty for this time of the year.
Euro
Euro almost always overamps systems in the 7-10 day
I agree with what the other peeps said!So no?
Kylo
Member
Past 3 runs have shifted south with track. Looks good to me.
Brent
Member
looks like the Euro might give me a flurry
It went pseudo Miller B as the primary low interacted with the wedge over western NC. Because the wedge wasn't very deep, it didn't redevelop further east off the coast.
EPS will be telling
packfan98
Moderator
That makes sense. Hopefully it will stay further south earlier and turn the corner more smoothly for the SE crew.
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The 12z Euro continues to paint the low further south than previous runs ( the last 3 runs have shift low south). So for anybody saying No Go because the Euro: remember GFS do pretty good with the CAD. This storm is still OVER 5 days away, have patience you guys.
Omg so close for us in north Alabama. If things continue to shift little more south. Going to be a nice hit for a lot of people on here.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah it did actually get closer.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You'll see lows from time-to-time jump from the windward side of the Apps to the eastern end in CAD events because the topographic blocking due to the mountains themselves (due to vorticity conservation compresses the column and deters cyclonic vorticity), and the strong low-level static stability in the CAD dome itself deters low-level cyclonic vorticity and acts as "effective topography", deflecting the track of the low pressure center around the mountains and CAD dome. Hope this makes sense haha!
NWMSGuy
Member
I agree! A ton of people could be in play. I imagine a few of the EPS Members will look good too.