Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

[packfan98]

You'll see lows from time-to-time jump from the windward side of the Apps to the eastern end in CAD events because the topographic blocking due to the mountains themselves (due to vorticity conservation compresses the column and deters cyclonic vorticity), and the strong low-level static stability in the CAD dome itself deters low-level cyclonic vorticity and acts as "effective topography", deflecting the track of the low pressure center around the mountains and CAD dome. Hope this makes sense haha!

Makes perfect sense. Thanks! The question is, will the low really end up on the windward side of the Apps like the Euro has????

 

[snowlover91]

One big difference in the Euro vs the GFS is the Euro shows a signficantly weaker HP around 1033 vs the 1040+ HP the GFS showed at 12z.

 

[snowlover91]

Makes perfect sense. Thanks! The question is, will the low really end up on the windward side of the Apps like the Euro has????

I highly doubt it. I've seen instances where the models want to cut the low into a CAD and they almost always correct south/east. So long as we have a decently strong HP in place to establish the CAD. Now if the HP ends up weaker and we see very little CAD then it certainly could cut.

 

[Ethan]

Does this euro run seem faster than the 00z?

 

[ATLwxfan]

The 18z GFS will silence this board until the signal returns after 2 or 3 runs.


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[Storm5]

1039 high in the plains on the eps mean


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[Storm5]

Euro control for s’s and g’s

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[whatalife]

Euro control for s’s and g’s

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[Kylo]

EPS and control run.

 

[Storm5]

Different view of the eps

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[Storm5]

Eps through day ten is very aggressive for Arkansas , tenn and NC vs previous run

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[packfan98]

Don't get too excited. E2 skewed the mean badly. There are not many other members that have much outside of the mountains.

 

[TheBatman]

Euro control for s’s and g’s

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Is this better then the 0z from early this morning ???
Can’t remember.

 

[Storm5]

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[NWMSGuy]

Eps through day ten is very aggressive for Arkansas , tenn and NC vs previous run

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Let's keep moving that Blue shade southward.

 

[NWMSGuy]

E2 Please!!

 

[Storm5]

Don't get too excited. E2 skewed the mean badly. There are not many other members that have much outside of the mountains.

Arkansas and Tenn have many big hits it’s not e2 skewing those areas . For areas south of that yes, e2 is skewing it


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[packfan98]

Arkansas and Tenn have many big hits it’s not e2 skewing those areas . For areas south of that yes, e2 is skewing it


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That's good. In my defense, I was focused on the CAD areas, not just my backyard .

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

EPS no bueno

 

[SnowNiner]

I still like the GEFS. Most of the individual members look to be southern sliders, gulf storms to the south. Nice location on the mean as well. Hopefully the EPS looks similar.