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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

2190759C-4F47-4DC7-828B-0AC753A5E52B.png Only 14 days away! Miller B garbage, lets reel it in! Happy Christmas! But Brent should approve!:weenie:
 
Hey guys first time poster and from the other forum. If you guys remember the last southeast storm over the weekend the FV3 has the system to far north until about 7 days out. It adjusted further south and stayed on its course. THE FV3 ruled on that storm so I wouldn’t discount the threat. Maybe we have something to chase. It looks like it slowly trending toward a Phase. Anyway thank you for letting me join the group!

Daniel R.


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CADEffect said:
Hey guys first time poster and from the other forum. If you guys remember the last southeast storm over the weekend the FV3 has the system to far north until about 7 days out. It adjusted further south and stayed on its course. THE FV3 ruled on that storm so I wouldn’t discount the threat. Maybe we have something to chase. It looks like it slowly trending toward a Phase. Anyway thank you for letting me join the group!

Daniel R.


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Welcome and great to have you!
 
Too bad the cold is bottled up to our north (the FV3 would actually argue some graupel not out of the question as it exits) but dang as Arcc mentioned if this keeps with a couple of weeks of cold air, watch out...
ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_7.png


FV3
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png
 
CADEffect said:
Hey guys first time poster and from the other forum. If you guys remember the last southeast storm over the weekend the FV3 has the system to far north until about 7 days out. It adjusted further south and stayed on its course. THE FV3 ruled on that storm so I wouldn’t discount the threat. Maybe we have something to chase. It looks like it slowly trending toward a Phase. Anyway thank you for letting me join the group!

Daniel R.


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Click to expand...

Welcome to the board ! The FV3 did do surprisingly well . Will be interesting to see if that continues this winter


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CADEffect said:
Hey guys first time poster and from the other forum. If you guys remember the last southeast storm over the weekend the FV3 has the system to far north until about 7 days out. It adjusted further south and stayed on its course. THE FV3 ruled on that storm so I wouldn’t discount the threat. Maybe we have something to chase. It looks like it slowly trending toward a Phase. Anyway thank you for letting me join the group!

Daniel R.


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Click to expand...

Welcome! Glad to have you aboard.


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We may have to go through a few bouts of energy without cold and cold without energy before we get another legit threat. Maybe post January thaw is more likely.


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Storm5 said:
Welcome to the board ! The FV3 did do surprisingly well . Will be interesting to see if that continues this winter


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That depends on where you live.:(Only models that nailed this last storm for me were the GGEM and RGEM. Ask SD about it.;)
 
mrdaddyman said:
That depends on where you live.:(Only models that nailed this last storm for me were the GGEM and RGEM. Ask SD about it.;)
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Each region could justify which model did best . I guess for the southeast in general the FV3 was most likely the best with the track on consistent basis . Obviously the snow maps are extremely flawed


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mrdaddyman said:
That depends on where you live.:(Only models that nailed this last storm for me were the GGEM and RGEM. Ask SD about it.;)
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I don't know man, this 48 hr FV3 map looks pretty darn good to me. You can't expect a global model to nail every transition zone down to the mile, and obviously it wasn't 100% perfect in the Mecklenburg and Wake County regions, but it consistently got the right idea of a very tight gradient and in the general right locations. It's up to the forecasters to take it from there and that's where I sucked it up - the FV3 gave all the right information to make a great forecast IMO.

04fe5c67-2305-47dd-8da3-014cbab583f9-png.8853
 
1300m said:
I don't know man, this 48 hr FV3 map looks pretty darn good to me. You can't expect a global model to nail every transition zone down to the mile, and obviously it wasn't 100% perfect in the Mecklenburg and Wake County regions, but it consistently got the right idea of a very tight gradient and in the general right locations. It's up to the forecasters to take it from there and that's where I sucked it up - the FV3 gave all the right information to make a great forecast IMO.

04fe5c67-2305-47dd-8da3-014cbab583f9-png.8853
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Yeah, it's probably smart not to even expect anything but a cold rain when you are living on the fringe areas of a ridiculous clown map.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Yeah, it's probably smart not to even expect anything but a cold rain when you are living on the fringe areas of a ridiculous clown map.
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The sooner this is accepted, the more appreciation you’ll have for 10 sleet pellets to start, while 10 miles N , gets a foot! Expect nothing but rain, and anything else is gravy!
 
1300m said:
I don't know man, this 48 hr FV3 map looks pretty darn good to me. You can't expect a global model to nail every transition zone down to the mile, and obviously it wasn't 100% perfect in the Mecklenburg and Wake County regions, but it consistently got the right idea of a very tight gradient and in the general right locations. It's up to the forecasters to take it from there and that's where I sucked it up - the FV3 gave all the right information to make a great forecast IMO.

04fe5c67-2305-47dd-8da3-014cbab583f9-png.8853
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04FE5C67-2305-47DD-8DA3-014CBAB583F9.png
 
It’s a good post from the other board!10677016-9222-4559-8B7D-1CCE2A2B3067.png
 
Pretty impressive cold in the northern hemisphere heading towards the end of the month
 

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Kylo said:
We had one last February, March was fairly cold with blocking. I remember most of last spring was cold.

2010 had the most infamous one, occurred in mid-January and we know what happened rest of winter.

Cohens blog about this winter and SSW.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

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Yeah, I guess it was just too late to help us out last winter as it takes a while for us to feel the effects of it.
 
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