12z CMC has that 2nd piece of energy coming down as well.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
It's early I know and anything can happen but I'm getting that CAD over-performing and models will catch up kind of feeling...... just a feeling
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Based on what I've noted throughout the observed record in NC, for Charlotte in particular the 3 best types of winter storms if you want a big snow/ice event are:
1) overunning events (Jan 1988)
2) Cut-off ULLs (Feb 1969 & Feb 2004)
3) Deep, cold CAD events (Dec 1930 & Feb 12-13 2014)
There's obviously some overlap between these especially storm types 1 & 3, and it's definitely looking more & more like whatever storm manages to affect the Carolinas and the rest of the southeast (if any) will be of "type" I or III. Here's to hoping for an amazing overrunning or deep CAD event; I'll take whatever I can get especially in early December.
1) overunning events (Jan 1988)
2) Cut-off ULLs (Feb 1969 & Feb 2004)
3) Deep, cold CAD events (Dec 1930 & Feb 12-13 2014)
There's obviously some overlap between these especially storm types 1 & 3, and it's definitely looking more & more like whatever storm manages to affect the Carolinas and the rest of the southeast (if any) will be of "type" I or III. Here's to hoping for an amazing overrunning or deep CAD event; I'll take whatever I can get especially in early December.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Love it
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
12z CMC has that 2nd piece of energy coming down as well.
That northern stream is the wildcard. A phase and this threat is done, a stronger press and you have a board wide snow storm, slower with more seperation and you have two storms, and finally wrong place and the s/w shears out. Good luck.
I could see that for sure
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Knowing how much dampening due to dispersion there is this far out in an ensemble suite, (obviously lots of under-dispersion too!) the fact that the GFS Ensemble mean already has a 1030 high at day 8 over the lower OH valley & stretching into the mid-Atlantic is actually pretty crazy..
RollTide18
Member
Is this potential event a CAD region only event?
What was Dec 02? A #3
Do you guys find these maps useful?
So no?Only if they show snow over me.
Seriously, sure.
packfan98
Moderator
Euro out to 168. Shows some overrunning in AR and west TN that wasn't there on 0z. Let's see where it goes...
Last edited:
snowlover91
Member
Those are very useful, especially with showing a deeper trough over the SE and higher heights out west which is key!
Fingers cross. Hopefully it will also start trending south.
Overrunning in Alaska? H5 must be a mess this run
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
December 2002 was definitely a pretty big CAD event/#3, just not quite cold enough to produce several inches of front end snow thumping before going to IP/ZR like Dec 1930 & Feb 2014 did.
Of course, those particular maps are helpful. Looking at what's going on up at H5 is one of the things that's most important as to what could happen down below.
Not sure this Euro run will show what 12z Gfs did for South.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Based off free maps, this Euro looks like a no go and probably worse than 0z, but let me dive into the maps on weather.us and see if it looks a bit better.