Brent
Member
Very localized looks to be rain otherwise
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Not a bad look at all and even though the GEFS and EPS torch everyone, it has major support. That ridge right there has staying power. If we can get cold air on our side of the globe, that can drop the hammer.
whatalife
Moderator
Not a bad look at all and even though the GEFS and EPS torch everyone, it has major support. That ridge right there has staying power. If we can get cold air on our side of the globe, that can drop the hammer.
I could be wrong and I don’t think we will have any problems getting the cold on our side of the globe.
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BHS1975
Member
Gfs shows another southern slider for Christmas but fv3 not buying it.
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Fv3 sucktastic
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I’m still shoveling out from the 23” it gave me! I think it’s koochy map , even gave me 15!
Chattownsnow
Member
CFSv2 has this for February averaged out of the last 3 days worth of runs. As most know it notoriously blowtorches everyone pretty much all the time so if it's showing this much cold it is note worthy. 
Ilovesnow28
Member
It may not be much to talk about but I been paying close attention for the days of the 14 and 15 for the past 3 days because the GFS and fv3-gfs been showing possible snow consistently since Saturday for places that hasn't seen it for the deep south... Here is the 6z GFS run from hours 108-126
Also @1300m @Storm5 @DarkKnight @Webberweather53 @Arcc do anyone of y'all think this has potential it almost looks like an upper level low passing through... I'm still learning guys
Also @1300m @Storm5 @DarkKnight @Webberweather53 @Arcc do anyone of y'all think this has potential it almost looks like an upper level low passing through... I'm still learning guys
WXinCanton
Member
Look up top. Yes it is a pretty stout ULL. Temps look yuck, but ULL's are known for surprises.
BHS1975
Member
Looks like a severe weather threat.
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Storm5
Member
Instability is lacking greatly . Severe weather won’t be a big concern .
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tennessee storm
Member
Storm5
Member
I mean it’s dynamic no doubt and gusty winds could be an issue to due to all the rain of late but other than that at this moment it looks meh
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This system that you see coming in over CA is the one we're going to have to watch for (it's the system that's been showing up around Christmas Eve/day, although the timing will probably change.) The disturbance gets pushed down into Mexico, and it possibly can make it over the GOM (Gulf low) If the timing is right with the northern stream, this will set up the next *possible* winter event. We'll have to see what the northern stream will do and this disurbance as this week goes on.
I thought it did days ago, but as mentioned, boundary layer temps are way too warm. Quite annoying actually.
This system that you see coming in over CA is the one we're going to have to watch for (it's the system that's been showing up around Christmas Eve/day, although the timing will probably change.) The disturbance gets pushed down into Mexico, and it possibly can make it over the GOM (Gulf low) If the timing is right with the northern stream, this will set up the next *possible* winter event. We'll have to see what the northern stream will do and this disurbance as this week goes on.
Get the ridge steeper and that is a huge phaser threat on that run. Those are always fun.
The issue right now is cutting off the Pacific firehose and getting some arctic air back in Canada.
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ATLwxfan
Member
ATLwxfan
Member
Pattern looks active...in that wet and soggy sort of way. I’d rather have sunny and 60’s
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Storm5
Member
This would do although I have t looked at the ensembles yet
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This would do although I have t looked at the ensembles yet
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The 6z GEFS starts pumping the -EPO and cooling things off around hour 276.
12z GFS, disurbance is in the Gulf, maybe we'll get a phase within the next several runs. Man, such a good look for a big winter storm setting up.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I'm ready for the next one! The pattern looks like it will get active again in a couple of weeks. I could see getting another storm between Christmas and the New Year.
Brent
Member
Lol. Sure its fake news but first good clown map here in a bit
It's only 4 days away so I doubt it will change much in that short time frame. Right ?
Brent
Member
its another cold core like what happened to give 10 inches to Lubbock so who knows
track may be more favorable to us this time but temps are a concern
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Only four days away. This might be a nice surprise. Has snow for 99% of NC.
I think that's from additional snow today, I don't see any model showing any frozen precip for NC after this for the next 7-10 days except maybe the models.
Brent
Member
I believe that's the current storm, the Friday cold core is almost solely rain outside of the small area near here
Tarheelwx
Member
FV3 shows "snow" at 102 for mountains and prime cad areas of NC. It all gets washed away though.
TW
TW
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Got it. I think we'll have to wait until after Christmas for the next shot.
pcbjr
Member
Not bad at all for 1:45 in the afternoon on a day in the 1st one-third of December ... 
Sitting at 24 degrees here at 2pm !Not bad at all for 1:45 in the afternoon on a day in the 1st one-third of December ...
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Fountainguy97
Member
Well hello there euro. Nice to see you
Taking a look at the teleconnections, for now, the PNA is projected to remain slightly positive, could spike more positively as December 20th (or so comes around)
The cold will "relax" some, but by the looks of the AO, it could be around netrual to a neg. AO by the time that possible Gulf low comes around.
If there will be a Gulf low, that brings snow, the track needs to start northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula (about central GOM) and track through central FL, up the east coast - a text book Miller A. No warm noses! We'll need to really pay attention to those heights as well. I'm excited for this time period.
The cold will "relax" some, but by the looks of the AO, it could be around netrual to a neg. AO by the time that possible Gulf low comes around.
If there will be a Gulf low, that brings snow, the track needs to start northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula (about central GOM) and track through central FL, up the east coast - a text book Miller A. No warm noses! We'll need to really pay attention to those heights as well. I'm excited for this time period.
Yea the low is in a perfect spot. Just gotta have some cold air to go with it. It would be a lot of people on here get a nice snowstorm.Taking a look at the teleconnections, for now, the PNA is projected to remain slightly positive, could spike more positively as December 20th (or so comes around)
The cold will "relax" some, but by the looks of the AO, it could be around netrual to a neg. AO by the time that possible Gulf low comes around.
If there will be a Gulf low, that brings snow, the track needs to start northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula (about central GOM) and track through central FL, up the east coast - a text book Miller A. No warm noses! We'll need to really pay attention to those heights as well. I'm excited for this time period.
It's nice to have a December that actually feels like a winter month. Three years ago you could add 30 degrees to that in the eastern half of the US and it would probably be fairly accurate.Not bad at all for 1:45 in the afternoon on a day in the 1st one-third of December ...
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whatalife
Moderator
GEFS says good luck with your snowstorm. Hopefully it will change.
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