This little guy says don't ignore me and my cold pool Friday afternoon
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Severe 4/28-30 2020 Severe Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
May have two lines to deal with. Maybe the first can cool things off and weaken the second line. Timing sucks.
Maybe we over perform if SPC doesn’t hype the outlook from marginal risk. Slight risk would scream bust.
Really getting all aboard the flash floof threat tonight. Slow moving, good atlantic inflow, possibly more than 1 line or groups of cells. Recipe for a widespread inch with pockets of 2-3
My weather app mentions no storms just heavy rain. I don’t think most people know about thunderstorm chance.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pretty robust leftover mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is evident on visible in eastern Alabama, and is causing local backing of the surface winds there. The additional low-level shear, moisture transport, & lift afforded by the eastern-southeastern flank of this MCV will become a hot spot for new convective development in Georgia and the western portion of the Carolinas later this afternoon & evening & it'll likely provide a legit wave of pre-frontal convection a few-several hours before the primary squall line comes knocking.
Like I said, two rounds. The main line will move into rain cooler air around 3am-5am. Meh.
Not really. If we get a first-round in the evening hours there will be plenty of time for the atmosphere to recover plenty. Especially with the increasing LLJ and wind energy in general.
Lol. I just saw the new SPC outlook from this morning and it continues to shrink. I am not bashing them, at all. Does anyone know if they have fewer people working there or something related to the shelter-in-place? I think I am going to stick with listening to GSP for today though.
That is an interesting feature for sure.
Round one is largely after 9pm. Round two in TN is wee hours of the morning. 
mbway091
Member
Models were a couple of hours slow on this one yesterday right? Or was I imagining things.
I’m under a Slight Risk now for Flooding with Flash Flood Watch. Plants will be happy.
It’s different when you have mountains and upslope that can wring out moisture and thus delay the movement East a hair. I fully expect most will sleep through this unless your in the mountains with better timing.
I suspect that mesolow is going to ruin the severe weather chances for Metro ATL, Western GA and Eastern AL, which is what NWS BHM predicted.
And there goes the slight risk area...
I tell ya what, the NWS just flat out isn't impressed with this set up developing tonight. I mean, they haven't budged.
Pretty much matches what Brad said on his VLOG. He is not too concerned about the chances for severe weather. The MCV is an interesting feature though. It's just odd to have so many varying thoughts. GSP says yes, SPC says meh, as does Brad. Someone has to be wrong, question is... who?
Brad is terrible he didn’t expect tornado warnings for Charlotte when upstate had those three supercells. Numerous times he tells viewers last minute once it’s actually on the doorstep never in advance.
mbway091
Member
Low probability events can still happen. And having one weak tornado on the ground isn’t exactly a huge contradiction to what he said. Elevated thunderstorms are what we expected and that’s pretty much what we got.
SPC did move the 2% tor risk area northeastward a bit with the latest update and Brad has mentioned the chance for QLCS spinups. I think the main difference between GSP and everyone else is that they threw that “strong tornado” wording in there, which seems unlikely to me.
Brad did a pretty good job during last week's event, actually. That man works so hard when severe weather strikes. He doesn't deserve that kind of ridicule. Meteorology is not an exact science, and with events like this with so many moving pieces, it's really hard to predict the outcome until storms start firing.
Moving on, TN storms looking better and growing. May need a severe watch for east TN?
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Kudos to bmx they have been cleaning spec's clock here lately. Maybe they should let Birmingham do the outlooks from now on.
So far nothing severe, it'll be interesting if we can get some more CAPE over the area as the afternoon progresses.
We have building cape here. Shear seems to be increasing a little bit as well.
Man, it sure is quiet today on this thread. I was looking forward to tracking something, even if it was an elevated storm. The line coming through the Upstate has a little 'tude with it, but will it make it across the Piedmont?
Shaggy
Member
18z hrrr was meh for me. Shows a line but we have less than ideal timing with early morning again, under 600 MuCape but it spits out a weak tornado sounding.
Attachments
Line rolling thru Chattanooga right now is rather meh. Looks more ominous on radar than it really is. Rain rates are impressive and it is rather breezy (30-35mph gusts) but very little lightning/thunder.
BufordWX
Member
Getting my second downpour of the day right now. It is really dark here.
EL temps across much of the southeast right now is puny so lightning will likely lack until later
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Lots of wind here this afternoon for what it’s worth.
Phil
Member
Same here..Rain out to our west but it has not gotten here yet.....
Jrips2710
Member
Not much going on out there right now. 66 here.
Guess we'll see if anything pops over the next few hours
Guess we'll see if anything pops over the next few hours
BufordWX
Member
Just had a very heavy downpour. Picked up about half an inch in the last 30 minutes. With that I am closing in on almost an inch of rain for today. Also had quite a bit of wind with that shower too.
Give me a nice thunderstorm with some big boomers and I will be a happy camper!
Rosie
Member
Kitties hate storms, even heavy rain. I get more bed space?