B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So, is this threat still viable? Seems kind of quiet here for a threat just two days out.
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Severe 4/28-30 2020 Severe Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Dawgdaze22
Member
NAM still has a highly sheared low topped and highly forced QLCS, soundings out ahead have very shallow cape, but in all honesty, could support convection with adequate shear (HSLC) also notice inverted Vs with a lot of soundings which enhances Storm downdrafts, damaging winds could be a issue and the main threat with this one 
Euro shows the same 
SWB
Member
Shaggy
Member
Mhx starting to mention a later timing and slightly better chances for storms.
As for the severe
weather threat, the later timing increases chances for
destabilization during the day Thursday, and given the strong
shear expected, would qualify the threat as increasing. Modeled
reflectivity is resolving a slow moving squall line with
possible intensification over the area during the day which
seems plausible.
As for the severe
weather threat, the later timing increases chances for
destabilization during the day Thursday, and given the strong
shear expected, would qualify the threat as increasing. Modeled
reflectivity is resolving a slow moving squall line with
possible intensification over the area during the day which
seems plausible.
Pretty good potential for a MCS to get going from OK east into west Tn that moves south and east before dying off overnight. East of that moisture return is still the big question mark, with the amount of forcing aloft at least a narrow band of storms looks likely.
BMX says slight risk for Wednesday
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NAM 3km has quite a nasty QLCS with even a meso low look, lol 
LMBO. the NAM and 3KM NAM being crazy as always. Actually showing some PDS TOR soundings toward the end of the day WED.
In between 21z and 00z nam showing PDS TOR (on cod site) I don't know how much I believe all this, they sucked the last 2 events so......take with big grain of salt.
In between 21z and 00z nam showing PDS TOR (on cod site) I don't know how much I believe all this, they sucked the last 2 events so......take with big grain of salt.
Not a lot of CAPE which is good, but I have a hard time believing the NAM as of late. It wouldn't take much to get some of that higher CAPE values up this area...
Not going to need a lot of cape with this forcing is through the roof. Really hard to see this as anything but a forced line though
Yeah the feb event that produced tors around CLT is somewhat a good example of copious amounts out forcing but barely any cape, all this setup really needs is 100-200jkg of cape and its game on, although the tor threat looks lower from inverted V soundings appearing out ahead
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So what do you do with 1000-2000 SBCAPE? Lol
What in the world is the goofy Nam up to this time?
Yay, another event, more backed surface winds.. 
I'm guessing that's for the Charlotte region?