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Severe 4/28-30 2020 Severe Chance

Doesn’t look favorable for my backyard similar to past several events. Good news for most in NC/VA.
 
We still on page 1. Hoping that means this is a non event for the southeast!
 
tennessee storm, this may be your chance here to chase this go around. I'm not really expecting nothing but rain here but your area is looking promise
 
Sounding in NC on the LR NAM (can’t be trusted) kinda getting over high shear setups
It’s contaminated but I couldnt get a clear one
Looking at globals the idea of a low topped QLCS isn’t crazy, although a rain shield with embedded thunder seems more likely 3FAEE010-00E2-4465-821E-275364AB5212.png26165ED7-7993-4A4F-BF51-00DF0857B2B9.png24C544A1-7FFE-4493-9F7B-D92E2FE9A537.pngC0705DDB-B695-468E-AF5F-876BA204A24E.png
 
GFS soundings for next week's event suggest that this shouldn't be a big deal for many, except the deep south and of course the Ark-La-Tex region.
 
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looks like a high-shear-low-cape QLCS setup for areas east of the MS River

Yeah even with the lack of cape, thats quite a favorable look for a low topped QLCS at H5, and that’s a very strong LLvL jet aswell, with that strength of a LLvL jet and the AN gulf temps, you almost worry if globals are underdoing cape, especially for eastern areas of the SE given that it looks like it’ll come thru during peak heating, but that’s the type of low level shear to get you by with even 250jkgs of CAPE, interesting setup, but I think we’ve all have had enough, at least this thing isn’t digging out further west to pump in more warm sector
EA9AE742-AF90-4CA1-82E8-0D587A03078D.pngFA4F17BF-BD5E-4441-9395-ABBBDC8281D3.png9D7F7144-B33B-487B-A73A-49C7EB568B7D.pngA7EBA3A6-A708-4863-B8A3-2FD33E94633B.png3FCD6909-F1B6-405A-BF9D-2B7DCA9F0708.pngA65F2A85-E25A-4CBE-9F52-0EA215EDE46C.pngF9E7595C-8045-44A6-95D3-D2BB447BF7A4.png55D8EDB4-9272-48C4-B5EE-B3AC45942AD4.png
 
Fortunately severe weather tends to decrease a lot in May as it shifts further north and west.

Very true. But we have had some big tornado outbreaks in May in the Carolina's. Plus, given how warm the Gulf is, I could see us having a bit of an extended severe weather season. Anyway, I don't want to clutter this thread with May discussions, so I will stop. Lol.
 
Fortunately severe weather tends to decrease a lot in May as it shifts further north and west.

My biggest severe day last year was the moderate risk at the end of may. Had 2 hail storms and it ruined a concert we were going to. Missed the barenaked ladies and hootie and the blowfish behind that day.
 
The biggest outbreak I can remember in the GSP CWA area took place on May 5 1989. Several EF4's that day.
 
The biggest outbreak I can remember in the GSP CWA area took place on May 5 1989. Several EF4's that day.
Yep, one of those F4's (before the EF scale) came within a few miles of my location. I can still recall standing in my front yard watching that storm go by.
 
Yep, one of those F4's (before the EF scale) came within a few miles of my location. I can still recall standing in my front yard watching that storm go by.

Tornadoes are a very common occurrence in May in the Carolina's and TN Valley. For Dixie Alley, theirs is in March and April. By the end of May. the threat quickly diminishes and moves NW towards the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Then comes derecho and MCS season. Probably my favorite time of year!
 
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