Yep
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Severe 4/28-30 2020 Severe Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yep
Ugh, surface CAPE is a lot higher too. This has been one of the most active severe weather seasons I can remember in a long time.
Yeah, no please 
SWB
Member
Jrips2710
Member
The NAM needs to earn its way back into our good graces after the last couple of events lol. It’s been pitiful.
Yeah the NAM 12km especially, showed death soundings for much of NC/SC with the event last Thursday that ended up never even getting close to verifying, NAM 3km was ehh on that event, but it did well with the Easter event, and somewhat well with the supercell trio event back on Saturday
So far the models are in suprisingly good agreement East 
yes, surprising on the agreement. I'd be very worried about straightline winds with that setup
Dawgdaze22
Member
Phil
Member
I am not much of a weather geek, as a matter of fact I hate this time of year...I live in South Carolina and if I had my choice I would move to Siberia...That said I joined here to learn a little bit....So what's the damage for South Carolina in all this?
Hrrrv4, while low dew points reduce the tornado threat and CAPE, it can increase the wind threat by the process of evaporative cooling and cause stronger downdrafts 
Phil
Member
OK. I am a rookie so what exactly is that telling me?
Squall line with some damaging winds is possible to likely now, dry air can help aid in damaging winds
Downeastnc
Member
It does seem that its looking like either colder drier system with more fall like squall line characteristics or a extremely skinny cape setup with a very focused surge of cape and dews right along the front but that still favors straight line squall type events though it would increase the chances of a QLCS spin up since they are all the rage this season.....so I am still waiting for my day with discrete supercells to track/chase here in eastern NC though I think May is a bit better for that around here as we get some enhanced tornado threat from the sea breeze which doesn't really show up till May at the earliest....
If that doesn't scream your classic QLCS than I don't what does. Not liking some of those discrete cells being depicted either.
The scary part is we've done a lot more, with a lot less. Example: Reedy Creek tornado. Strong EF2 with no warning. Even scarier our radar coverage in Charlotte is downright pitiful. Great write up from the WP if you're curious.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,660
- Reaction score
- 10,817
That crap is funny right there
Definitely been way better than last year with basically nothing
NAM 3km is a yikes, very similar to a cool season HSLC setup 
SWB
Member
mbway091
Member
Even the though the tornado threat appears low it seems like this could end up being the most damaging of all the recent setups up here in NC.
SWB
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I know it's been mentioned already, but this setup definitely looks like a repeat of early February in NC except w/ more CAPE and maybe a little less low-level shear. Very deep longwave trough coupled w/ CAPE < 250-500 j/kg & strong low-level shear/~ 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 SRH, yikes.
Nam has just short of 50kt at 925, not going to take a lot of momentum transport to get that to the surface
Seanathan
Member
12K nam is coming in with a little bit higher dew points on the front edge of the line and popping some higher SCP and SIGTORs
This setup is much more favorable for areas who have missed out on several rounds of severe recently (Hickory, Winston NC, Danville VA, etc). I expect a slight risk upgrade at least for many.
Only thing I hate is timing. 2 days away so it will prob trend to a 4:30am event rather than midnight event! Yay
You know these lines always show up before models say
Well we seem to get our crazier events when SPC keeps us in a marginal risk vs a enhanced 3 days out so I’ve got a good feeling about this one
Yeah I don’t like the look of this line, 40-50kts of 1km shear, that could easily cuase QLCS spinups, also surface winds may back out ahead of the line 
Last edited:
Monster
Looks like it is modeled to shape up to be one. Looks brutal for eastern TX, from OK all the way to the coast
These hodographs.. I don’t like them, there somewhat similar to the Easter setup, large low level hodographs with backing surface winds 
Easter
That setup had better instability, Higher wind shear, which was off the charts, but this one looks mean itself
Easter
That setup had better instability, Higher wind shear, which was off the charts, but this one looks mean itself
Last edited: