Severe 4/28-30 2020 Severe Chance

[NickyBGuarantee]

Ugh, surface CAPE is a lot higher too. This has been one of the most active severe weather seasons I can remember in a long time.

Definitely been way better than last year with basically nothing

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM 3km is a yikes, very similar to a cool season HSLC setup

 

[SWB]

 

[SD]

View attachment 40603

Yep going to be a pretty large straight line wind event. I think if the tornado threat was 0 we might see the pds severe tstorm watch today

 

[mbway091]

NAM 3km is a yikes, very similar to a cool season HSLC setup View attachment 40600View attachment 40601View attachment 40602

Even the though the tornado threat appears low it seems like this could end up being the most damaging of all the recent setups up here in NC.

 

[SWB]

Yep going to be a pretty large straight line wind event. I think if the tornado threat was 0 we might see the pds severe tstorm watch today

I've had enough straight line winds. I've had enough of all of it. Electricity been back on for about a week. Hope it don't happen again. But, if its going get bad and that was worse. I can deal with it.

 

[Webberweather53]

I know it's been mentioned already, but this setup definitely looks like a repeat of early February in NC except w/ more CAPE and maybe a little less low-level shear. Very deep longwave trough coupled w/ CAPE < 250-500 j/kg & strong low-level shear/~ 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 SRH, yikes.

 

[SD]

Nam has just short of 50kt at 925, not going to take a lot of momentum transport to get that to the surface

 

[Seanathan]

View attachment 40603

Local folks here in DFW have this just a touch to the west but moving e/se fairly rapidly. Gonna be an early morning tomorrow for folks in ShreveBo area and a late night here for folks in north central/northeast Texas.

 

[SD]

12K nam is coming in with a little bit higher dew points on the front edge of the line and popping some higher SCP and SIGTORs

 

[BirdManDoomW]

This setup is much more favorable for areas who have missed out on several rounds of severe recently (Hickory, Winston NC, Danville VA, etc). I expect a slight risk upgrade at least for many.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Only thing I hate is timing. 2 days away so it will prob trend to a 4:30am event rather than midnight event! Yay

 

[SD]

Only thing I hate is timing. 2 days away so it will prob trend to a 4:30am event rather than midnight event! Yay

You know these lines always show up before models say

 

[Brick Tamland]

12K nam is coming in with a little bit higher dew points on the front edge of the line and popping some higher SCP and SIGTORs

Looks like this is one where the threat might actually be increasing as we get closer to go time.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Well we seem to get our crazier events when SPC keeps us in a marginal risk vs a enhanced 3 days out so I’ve got a good feeling about this one

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah I don’t like the look of this line, 40-50kts of 1km shear, that could easily cuase QLCS spinups, also surface winds may back out ahead of the line

 

[SD]

Monster

 

[Myfrotho704_]

MonsterView attachment 40615

Der- can I say it ?

 

[cyclogent]

Der- can I say it ?

Looks like it is modeled to shape up to be one. Looks brutal for eastern TX, from OK all the way to the coast

 

[Myfrotho704_]

These hodographs.. I don’t like them, there somewhat similar to the Easter setup, large low level hodographs with backing surface winds
Easter
That setup had better instability, Higher wind shear, which was off the charts, but this one looks mean itself