Brent
Member
Didn't expect a moderate risk here 
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Severe 4/28-30 2020 Severe Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
SWB
Member
Last run doesn't look to have energy prior runs had.
That QLCS on February 6th that produced that cluster of tornadoes in around CLT was moving at a snails pace to
With it being a line it can only do so much. Either sprinkles with gusts to 30 or heavy rain and gust to 50. When was the last time you witnessed widespread line cause damaging winds over 60 for everyone? Nada.
Shaggy
Member
July 1st 2012 eastern NC multiplied gust 75+
I was thinking the 1/11/14 storms that dropped the 86mph gust at rdu. Either way more than 0
Dawgdaze22
Member
So are we thinking QLCS? Is a possible derecho in play?
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Shaggy
Member
One of the singluraly most destructive storms I've ever been through. Entire forest laid flat( I'll post the video in the storm video thread i started) and had widespread 75 to 100mph winds. A guy got killed a few miles south by a falling tree. Multiple injuries in Beufort county as windows blew out. It was bad.
Storm Prediction Center 20120701's Storm Reports
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
SWB
Member
Hope they change their attitude.
QLCS. Derecho doesn't appear as likely as this system moves east, but a lot can change.
It's very rare to get derecho's this early in the season. Normally that's a June/July/August event, climatology speaking. Plus, in order to get derecho's you need LOTS of CAPE. CAPE is very meager in this setup, 250-400 just won't cut it.
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NAM still shows the same thing, a squall line with 250-600jkgs of MUcape which is a bit more then other short range guidance, maybe it’s better res let’s it sniff out more cape
Hrrr was interesting, almost looks like it was about to crank out a piedmont meso low 
SWB
Member
Getting reports of 60 mph winds in extreme NW Arkansas.
Brent
Member
Yay
SUMMARY...A band of severe thunderstorms initially over Oklahoma
should organize further and surge southeastward to southward across
the watch area this evening into tonight. Severe downdraft winds
will be a distinct hazard, with isolated gusts near hurricane force
possible. A few storms also may produce large, damaging hail in
parts of north Texas. A line-embedded tornado or two cannot be
ruled out as well.
SUMMARY...A band of severe thunderstorms initially over Oklahoma
should organize further and surge southeastward to southward across
the watch area this evening into tonight. Severe downdraft winds
will be a distinct hazard, with isolated gusts near hurricane force
possible. A few storms also may produce large, damaging hail in
parts of north Texas. A line-embedded tornado or two cannot be
ruled out as well.
Brent
Member
Double yay
Nam is rocking with 925 winds of 50kt and 850 of 60-70 if we can get sustained convection probably going to see quite a few wind reports
Brent
Member
Brent
Member
Here we go whatever it is
Brent
Member
Surprisingly the wind isn't as crazy as I expected 70 mph winds reported to my west
Dawgdaze22
Member
Alright y’all, how we feeling bout tomorrow?
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
SWB
Member
It came through here. Thunder and lighting show, little wind and some rain. Not done yet but front edge is through. Moving fast. It belongs to all you now. Headed your way.
SWB
Member
I can tell you it is probably a couple hours ahead of schedule.
Brent
Member
Jrips2710
Member
Essentially the same outlook as earlier from the SPC re: tomorrow 
New SPC Day 1 Outlook...
SPC AC 290547
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging
winds may occur across portions of southeast Louisiana into the
Southeast and southern Appalachians.
...Gulf States/Carolinas...
Strong mid-level height falls are forecast to spread across the
mid-MS Valley into the mid-South region before shifting into the
Appalachians Wednesday night. In response to a 90kt 500mb speed max,
surface front will surge to a position arcing from the lower OH
Valley - western TN - LA by early afternoon. However, strong
convection is currently noted from AR into north-central TX and this
activity will likely remain organized through sunrise Wednesday as
it races ahead of the front. This band of convection will serve as
the back edge of severe probs starting at 29/12z. Latest CAMs
support this convection progressing to a position from central MS -
southern LA - coastal Plain of TX at the start of the day1 period.
While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, boundary-layer
heating is not expected to be particularly strong and this should
limit buoyancy within an otherwise strongly sheared environment.
Strong winds should be the primary threat with this long-lived
squall line, though an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. It's
not entirely clear how much convection will develop along the actual
synoptic front over MS/AL, but the synoptic boundary should become
the focus for frontal convection downstream across GA where a narrow
line of storms should evolve, especially as this region will
experience some low-level heating. During the latter half of the
period, a strongly forced low-topped line of storms is expected to
spread across the Carolinas during the overnight hours. There is
some concern that strengthening LLJ over the Carolinas could enhance
the prospect for QLCS-type of event. However, at this time
instability appears too low to warrant increasing severe probs. Will
monitor this region for signs of greater buoyancy which could lead
to stronger updrafts.
SPC AC 290547
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging
winds may occur across portions of southeast Louisiana into the
Southeast and southern Appalachians.
...Gulf States/Carolinas...
Strong mid-level height falls are forecast to spread across the
mid-MS Valley into the mid-South region before shifting into the
Appalachians Wednesday night. In response to a 90kt 500mb speed max,
surface front will surge to a position arcing from the lower OH
Valley - western TN - LA by early afternoon. However, strong
convection is currently noted from AR into north-central TX and this
activity will likely remain organized through sunrise Wednesday as
it races ahead of the front. This band of convection will serve as
the back edge of severe probs starting at 29/12z. Latest CAMs
support this convection progressing to a position from central MS -
southern LA - coastal Plain of TX at the start of the day1 period.
While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, boundary-layer
heating is not expected to be particularly strong and this should
limit buoyancy within an otherwise strongly sheared environment.
Strong winds should be the primary threat with this long-lived
squall line, though an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. It's
not entirely clear how much convection will develop along the actual
synoptic front over MS/AL, but the synoptic boundary should become
the focus for frontal convection downstream across GA where a narrow
line of storms should evolve, especially as this region will
experience some low-level heating. During the latter half of the
period, a strongly forced low-topped line of storms is expected to
spread across the Carolinas during the overnight hours. There is
some concern that strengthening LLJ over the Carolinas could enhance
the prospect for QLCS-type of event. However, at this time
instability appears too low to warrant increasing severe probs. Will
monitor this region for signs of greater buoyancy which could lead
to stronger updrafts.
Jrips2710
Member
Interesting for the Carolina folks 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
How much instability did we have in early february when that QLCS produced widespread wind damage across NC? Basically next to none.
Jrips2710
Member
Line seems to be slightly ahead of schedule to me. Main show is really over Texas and Louisiana now 
Yeah, other then the tornadoes, with little to no cape that line had some impressive lightning and even some hail, which still puzzles me a bit given there was almost 0 cape, I guess shear/forcing just controlled everything in that setup, that setup Also proved how bad we need a weather radar in around CLT that’s not the terminal one, lol
Welp, there it is 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
SPC doesn't even have a 2% tor in NC today. 
Not sure how a strong QLCS with 100-500 j/kg+ MUCAPE & ~400 0-1 SRH doesn't warrant at least some legitimate non-zero probs for tornadoes. They're dropping the ball on this one imo
Not sure how a strong QLCS with 100-500 j/kg+ MUCAPE & ~400 0-1 SRH doesn't warrant at least some legitimate non-zero probs for tornadoes. They're dropping the ball on this one imo
SPC doesn't even have a 2% tor in NC today.
Not sure how a strong QLCS with 100-500 j/kg+ MUCAPE & ~400 0-1 SRH doesn't warrant at least some legitimate non-zero probs for tornadoes. They're dropping the ball on this one imo
View attachment 40668
Not even trying to bash, but the past few events they have been iffy on, first off the setup after easter which it looked like the warm front was gonna stay well to our south yet they issued a day 2 hatched 10% tor when almost all CAMS/HREF showed nothing in the Carolinas, then the last event with the supercells trio, they should have extended that slight across much of the boundary, and oh yea 15% tor a week ago
NAM staying consistent with a nasty QLCS 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This environment isn't at least marginally conducive for QLCS tors?
Here’s a sounding from the wrf (less cape verified but wind profiles were sorta on point although near the CAD boundary sfc winds did back), but otherwise it can be argued that the wind profiles look more supportive this time vs feb 6th
Brad P. alluded to DP's yesterday and how they were pretty low. Well, they've gone up and are pushing 60. Not sure what the SPC is doing, honestly. Even GSP is bullish in its wording. I suppose there is time to upgrade in later outlooks...