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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

NoSnowATL said:
"Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons," Klotzbach said in the news release. "This highlights the somewhat higher level of confidence that exists with this outlook relative to our typical early August forecast."

The team at CSU predicts that the 2024 hurricane activity will be about 190% of the average season from 1991-2020.

"By comparison, 2023's hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season," CSU said.

Oops
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Big oops.
 
BHS1975 said:
Guess we'll have to wait until October when CV season is over.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I wouldn’t have a problem with that but we’re skipping to Oct already? That was quick lol.
 
Downeastnc said:
There are 10k deaths per year in the US from canes?
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That's a global average according to google. Looking at stats for CONUS 2000-2021:

Hurricanes And Related Deaths In The United States, 2000-2021​




YearTotal
hurricanes (1)		Made landfall
as hurricane
in the U.S.		Deaths (2)
2000804
20051551,408
2006500
2007611
200884 (3)41
200931 (4)6
201012011
20117144
2012101 (5)83
2013201
2014612
2015403
20167336
2017104147
20188248
20196215 (6)
202013647
20217468




2001-2004 are obviously missing. Some of the other years don't make sense as there were 0 landfalls but still deaths.
 
jeremyt said:
That's a global average according to google. Looking at stats for CONUS 2000-2021:

Hurricanes And Related Deaths In The United States, 2000-2021​




YearTotal
hurricanes (1)		Made landfall
as hurricane
in the U.S.		Deaths (2)
2000804
20051551,408
2006500
2007611
200884 (3)41
200931 (4)6
201012011
20117144
2012101 (5)83
2013201
2014612
2015403
20167336
2017104147
20188248
20196215 (6)
202013647
20217468




2001-2004 are obviously missing. Some of the other years don't make sense as there were 0 landfalls but still deaths.
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Oh ok that makes more sense...
 
jeremyt said:
That's a global average according to google. Looking at stats for CONUS 2000-2021:

Hurricanes And Related Deaths In The United States, 2000-2021​




YearTotal
hurricanes (1)		Made landfall
as hurricane
in the U.S.		Deaths (2)
2000804
20051551,408
2006500
2007611
200884 (3)41
200931 (4)6
201012011
20117144
2012101 (5)83
2013201
2014612
2015403
20167336
2017104147
20188248
20196215 (6)
202013647
20217468




2001-2004 are obviously missing. Some of the other years don't make sense as there were 0 landfalls but still deaths.
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Where did you get this data from? To explain the 0 landfalls and no deaths is simple. Hurricane Igor is credited for a few deaths in Puerto Rico while not making landfall. There maybe other situations but I didn't want to read everything here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/143/9/mwr-d-11-00264.1.xml
 
vtrap90 said:
Where did you get this data from? To explain the 0 landfalls and no deaths is simple. Hurricane Igor is credited for a few deaths in Puerto Rico while not making landfall. There maybe other situations but I didn't want to read everything here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/143/9/mwr-d-11-00264.1.xml
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Here is the link: https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-hurricanes

I didn't read the footnotes below the chart that state the deaths occurred in non landfalling storms. It also didn't include Sandy due to being post tropical.
 
jeremyt said:
Here is the link: https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-hurricanes

I didn't read the footnotes below the chart that state the deaths occurred in non landfalling storms. It also didn't include Sandy due to being post tropical.
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It's likely in how they count deaths due to influence of the storm. Tornado spawned that case a death, a rip current death from rough seas even if the cane doesn't landfall are likely counted.

Same with winter storms. Snow itself doesn't kill anyone I'd imagine. Car accidents, heart attacks, loss of power and extreme cold are all things we see in winter storms.

I believe I read somewhere that close to 850k people go to the hospital woth orthopedic injuries from falls in the snow.

People love to root for snow storms
 
Shaggy said:
It's likely in how they count deaths due to influence of the storm. Tornado spawned that case a death, a rip current death from rough seas even if the cane doesn't landfall are likely counted.

Same with winter storms. Snow itself doesn't kill anyone I'd imagine. Car accidents, heart attacks, loss of power and extreme cold are all things we see in winter storms.

I believe I read somewhere that close to 850k people go to the hospital woth orthopedic injuries from falls in the snow.

People love to root for snow storms
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I believe you on the winter weather deaths. Between all the incidents you stated above I think Winter Weather on average is more deadly Conus! It effects more people.
 
Thru 294 12Z GFS says its february in the Atlantic. All sparks gone. The good news is we have had 2 fantasy canes in Sept with lots of fantasy ACE.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Thru 294 12Z GFS says its february in the Atlantic. All sparks gone. The good news is we have had 2 fantasy canes in Sept with lots of fantasy ACE.
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I feel that you’re putting too much importance on the highly unreliable long range portion of the GFS, whether it is active or inactive. I prefer to concentrate on the various ensembles that far out due to much higher statistical credibility. Granted, I did mention the long range portion of the Euro-AIFS but that was only because 13 runs in a row have something very similar.

Meanwhile 12Z CMC has something E of the Caribbean that’s similar to prior runs (not strong but it’s got some spin) and is consistent with the timing of the Euro-AIFS if projected ahead.
 
GaWx said:
I feel that you’re putting too much importance on the highly unreliable long range portion of the GFS, whether it is active or inactive. I prefer to concentrate on the various ensembles that far out due to much higher statistical credibility. Granted, I did mention the long range portion of the Euro-AIFS but that was only because 13 runs in a row have something very similar.

Meanwhile 12Z CMC has something E of the Caribbean that’s similar to prior runs (not strong but it’s got some spin) and is consistent with the timing of the Euro-AIFS if projected ahead.
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1724347590936.png




CMC is similar to last night but i rank it well below the GFS and Euro. Lets see what the Euro shows at 240 in another hour
 
lexxnchloe said:
Tell that to the GFS CMC and Euro though the euro will be out shortly
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12Z Euro had no TC. But per last 13 Euro AIFS the crucial period for TCG may be centered around Sep 2nd, just beyond the 12Z Euro 240.
 
The gfs has two areas trying for sure by early September including one in the Gulf even by the end of next week maybe. I don't think it'll be much beyond 5 days before something at least tries to form

And yes I've heard the Euro AI is very good so far
 
Brent said:
The gfs has two areas trying for sure by early September including one in the Gulf even by the end of next week maybe. I don't think it'll be much beyond 5 days before something at least tries to form

And yes I've heard the Euro AI is very good so far
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1724369800038.png
 
I’d say the 18Z is about the most active GEFS for early Sep yet though not really that active for late Aug as there were a number of runs more active for then awhile back.
 
Ok...everybody happy now?? 🤣 😂🤣😂
Way too much trust in these models.
The one to trust is NHC. When they latch on, it's coming.
I have no doubt that something will happen. This dead season business is just talk. It only takes one to destroy lives. Why the hype to have so many storms? I remember Irma, Maria, and Harvey in 2017. Destroyed lives.atl-tracks-to-date-sep302017 (1).jpg


ec-aifs_mslp_wind_atl_fh294-294.gif

gfs_mslp_wind_atl_fh384-384.gificon_mslp_wind_atl_fh153-153.gif
 
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Henry2326 said:
Euro AI 00z finished with this. Something's coming in the gulf.


View attachment 150274
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More significant from a forecasting standpoint imho is the low E of Bermuda. That originates from a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd. And by the way, the brand new 6Z has something similar, making that the 17th run in a row with a TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. This goes all of the way back to the 6Z 8/19 run!
 
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