lexxnchloe
Member
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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
The season has been going. ACE is up to 51, which compares to a 1991-2020 average of only 16 and is 3rd highest for the date since 1951! 51 is not much below 50% of the full season avg since 1991 of 61. Climowise, Aug 17th is on avg only at 13% of the total season ACE.
Downeastnc
Member
I think its more a matter of having satellites now that can easily see and track SAL....it tends to peak from May to mid Aug and is probably why the hurricane season tends to ramp up around the same time it tends to abate, the science was not there to really understand this till the last 10 or so years when the technology got good enough to really track it.
The dust this year has been some of the worse on record ( which only go back less than 20 yrs ) and its been enough to keep the MDR and CV regions shut down...some of the modeling I have seen shows breaks in it but it still looks rather potent for the next few weeks.
We’ll see what occurs in the MDR later. But the MDR to this point hasn’t actually been shut down with already two TCs that formed E of the Caribbean that each later became a NS (and actually a H). These two occurred by August 9th. Having two by Aug 9 ties the highest number of E of Caribbean TCs that lead to a NS since at least 1995. The avg # of these during this period was only 0.8. So, it was at 250% of average.
lexxnchloe
Member
From LC
I had to address the hurricane forecast, since quite a few forecasters, professional and otherwise, have been writing about the "tropical cyclone season" being over. This is simply not true! We have had five named systems so far, three of which became hurricanes, and one of which reached major status. The most active part of the tropical period is usually from now until September 10, then again in the first week of October. Widespread warm waters, a vast decrease in shearing wind profiles as the Saharan Heat Ridge bulges north, and some very interesting ITCZ impulses suggest a string ramping up of the storm output. There are still dangers to the Gulf of Mexico (see the dent/weakness in the heat ridge on the maps) as well as chances for damaging wind circulation hitting the East Coast. It's far from over, folks!
I had to address the hurricane forecast, since quite a few forecasters, professional and otherwise, have been writing about the "tropical cyclone season" being over. This is simply not true! We have had five named systems so far, three of which became hurricanes, and one of which reached major status. The most active part of the tropical period is usually from now until September 10, then again in the first week of October. Widespread warm waters, a vast decrease in shearing wind profiles as the Saharan Heat Ridge bulges north, and some very interesting ITCZ impulses suggest a string ramping up of the storm output. There are still dangers to the Gulf of Mexico (see the dent/weakness in the heat ridge on the maps) as well as chances for damaging wind circulation hitting the East Coast. It's far from over, folks!
In other words LC is saying “season cancel” season is cancelled. But in the meantime while I keep reading “season cancel” season stuff, I feel the need to wish everyone “season cancel” season’s greetings!
snowc
Member
Still avoids NC.
I'm not the best with tropical systems since I'm too far inland to take much interest in them other than big rains depending on track. But I would say just from observation it seems 90% or more Cape Verde hurricanes recurve. The infamous Hugo was one obviously. But if you're on the SE coast and want your house wrecked by a hurricane it seems to me you'd be better off rooting for something to form further east. Or even in the gulf and cross over Florida and up the east coast like Charley. But maybe my memory is 100% wrong but seems like most true Cape Verde storms are fish storms
lexxnchloe
Member
Very dry
lexxnchloe
Member
Not good when JB starts to give up. Hopefully next season everyone will predict it will be dead. Maybe we can still eke out 5/3/1 for the rest of the season.
I’m near the US coast and don’t want anything to do with any nearby hurricanes. I prefer folks to not lump me in with those who want them. The last thing I want is this huge headache, much less the dangers to my community. Not everyone who posts a lot about the tropics is actually rooting for these monsters. I post a lot about all kinds of wx (forecasting or obs) whether I want it or not. I had more than enough of a headache from Debby just from a partially flooded garage.
So, although the early season has been active in terms of ACE and hurricanes, I’m not emphasizing that because I’m happy about it. I’m emphasizing it because I like to talk about what has actually happened in comparison to history. Nothing would make me happier than to see no more US H landfalls this season.
I define a CV storm as one that becomes a TD E of 50W in the MDR. Based on that, Elsa of 2021 was the last to landfall on the CONUS. Before that was Laura of 2020.
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snowc
Member
Now we're seeing things... But for NC, Nothing for here!
lexxnchloe
Member
Really though that isnt alot of the peak of the season
jeremyt
Member
Kind of like winter weather predictions 5 months out based off of models when models struggle 1 day out!
jeremyt
Member
A whole lot more to it than SST’s!
StoneColdHeel
Member
I think the long range predictions for the tropics are just as useless as the ones for winter.
lexxnchloe
Member
Isaias originated from a vigorous tropical wave off the coast of Africa that was first identified by the National Hurricane Center on July 23.