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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
Last thing we need is $5 gas anyway
lexxnchloe
Member
1966 seems like the best we will be able to do now. Maybe a combo of 66/68. 95/2005 no way.
2005 with 28/15/7 was an extreme season and hasn’t been a realistic possibility for several weeks. Also, its second highest ACE of 245 is pretty much out of reach. My May prog was 21/10/5, which I still think is doable. In addition, I’m at ~200 ACE for now. Let’s see how much ACE Ernesto produces.
2024 will almost certainly smash 1968. Its ACE is already nearly up to the full 1968 ACE as it had no MH. It had only 9 NS and 2024 is already at 5. It had only 5 H and 2024 is already at 3.
Brent
Member
Eps showing signs of life right on schedule 
Consistent with the 12Z EPS, the 18Z GEFS has a moderate signal for potential increased activity 15-25N, 50-70W on 8/29 from an AEW that leaves Africa ~8/24. PWAT is above avg and mean SLP is below avg. Shear is ~avg. SSTs are ~85F, which are ~2-3F warmer than longterm normal:
Brent
Member
I swear we do this most years... people don't think the season will ever start in early mid August but I've always been told August 20th is like a light switch
jeremyt
Member
Wait, I thought this season was dead because we didn’t have hyper activity before prime time?
lexxnchloe
Member
It might just be me but that seems a little puny with Aug30 being peak season. GFS still shows nothing now thru AUG31. there is a weak wave south of CV but something has gone wrong in the Atlantic.
You can’t base it on the end of the GFS op run. The NHC and the NWS sure doesn’t. Both the GEFS and the EPS are showing some noise going into the last 10 days of August
jeremyt
Member
It’s not Aug 30th, it’s Sep 10th!
NCSNOW
Member
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The ensemble candidates: I been watching the one that's just exited. However the ensembles may be eyeing the one that's in central Africa. It always amazes me how a few thunderstorms over Africa sometimes end up being Major Hurricanes 10 days latter. Love watching the CV season on satellite, instead of waiting on models.
lexxnchloe
Member
Peak isnt 1 day. For me its aug 15-sept 30
This is an example of whats happening to the waves off Africa. At hour 72 there is a well developed wave with a 1003 mb low. Should be a candidate to develop
72
At hour 90 it has jumped NW into dusty, dry, stable air and its in the process of dissipation
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weather bubba
Member
The dry air in the Atlantic has been a factor that has really put a lid on what was predicted to be a record setting hurricane season. If that lessens or abates things might get interesting in the tropics.
lexxnchloe
Member
I sure hope so. You just dont get a better pattern than this in peak season yet in season predicted to be hyper-active nothing. With that big high over the NW ATL pressures should be lowering in the SW ATL. Lets see what happens after 180
Nothing happened. There is a very weak wave in the central ATL but its too far north to matter.
The pattern repeats and still nothing can get going in the SW ATL, GOM. or W Carib
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Drizzle Snizzle
Member
August 30 is peak season. Peak season isn’t a single day. It’s like a 2 month period from Mid August to Mid October. We are at the beginning of peak season right now.
NoSnowATL
Member
The peak date for the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, when the likelihood of a named storm in the Atlantic is highest. This is the date when the most tropical storms and hurricanes have occurred in historical records