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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

Brent said:
Gotta stop watching the op gfs runs they can't even get next week right

Like I said last night... August 20th is the start of the peak to me
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Euro is interesting. Wave in the central ATL that should move wsw under the ridge


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But of course not. Heads NW and weakens. Too far north to matter in any case.


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There are slightly lower than normal pressures off FLA. Maybe something could get going there. Off Africa the MT is still wrong. High pressures south of the islands, low pressures north.
 
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The 12Z GEFS and EPS continue to have moderate signals for renewed activity that originates from AEWs that emerge from Africa starting 8/23-4. This isn’t surprising considering the overall conditions, the very active early season, and that being during the early part of peak season. So, the break after Ernesto is liable to end up very short (too short if you ask me).
 
Watch the front that gets pinned off shore next week. There are a couple of waves that come off of Africa that will likely end up pretty void of convection but their overall vorticity is traceable. The 12z Euro has an inverted trough north of the Bahamas at D10
 
SD said:
Watch the front that gets pinned off shore next week. There are a couple of waves that come off of Africa that will likely end up pretty void of convection but their overall vorticity is traceable. The 12z Euro has an inverted trough north of the Bahamas at D10
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Compare this to pre-season forecasts of lower than normal pressures in the MDR

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I know 1995 was a recurve year but i was expecting to see the Atlantic look like this. Hard to imagine something like that was even possible.



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I think the season from Hell might have become the season from a dying campfire.



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Ben remains optimistic but its getting to the point its go time or no time.


 
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In the three weeks between August 25, 2017 and September 20, hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria made landfall in the United States in rapid succession.

Bet they all said the season was dead before that happened. The truth is nobody knows what's gonna happen.

If we are lucky, nothing will happen. But I'm not betting on that.

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Henry2326 said:
In the three weeks between August 25, 2017 and September 20, hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria made landfall in the United States in rapid succession.

Bet they all said the season was dead before that happened. The truth is nobody knows what's gonna happen.

If we are lucky, nothing will happen. But I'm not betting on that.

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Another place i lurk sometimes had wondered about 2 weeks before Katrina in 2005(which is still over a week away from even forming right now) if the Gulf would ever have another hurricane again and that year was on record pace way ahead of this year... Strongest hurricanes ever in the Gulf in the next month and a half after that...

I'm hoping we bust and you should too and nobody will be upset if it does but things can flip overnight out there regardless of what the gfs says at 300 hours. Nobody knows what will happen
 
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Brent said:
Another place i lurk sometimes had wondered about 2 weeks before Katrina in 2005(which is still over a week away from even forming right now) if the Gulf would ever have another hurricane again and that year was on record pace way ahead of this year... Strongest hurricanes ever in the Gulf in the next month and a half after that...

I'm hoping we bust and you should too and nobody will be upset if it does but things can flip overnight out there regardless of what the gfs says at 300 hours. Nobody knows what will happen
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euro has a spark


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Sept 02 and still have the MT backward with low pressure north of CV and high pressure south so every wave simply stretches out and dies in dry stable air north of CV. CV season only lasts for so long. And even if a depression were to somehow form its up and out with this pattern

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He still thinks there will be more US landfalls. Models best start lighting up. Read the whole thing


 
lexxnchloe said:
Another one already too far north. CV season will be rather paltry with waves coming off at 20N


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The low behind the one off the African coast is also at 20N. With the wave train running a track like that and the persistent dry air over the Atlantic this season I think coastal areas of the Southeast and Gulf will have little to worry about unless things change.
 
Ben Noll says the SST's are primed for action but debby and ernesto were on the struggle bus the entire way across the ATL and the whole basin is struggling to even develop a weak depression. SST's are only important if the season has other factors aligned.



Over AFrica there is a 1001mb low that in an average season would likely develop considering its peak but its already too far north and devoid of convection in the dry stable air
 

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18z dropped the GOM low and has no survivable waves off Africa. Does show a stalled front off FLA that could develop if it can stay stalled for a few days. For peak, not much.


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Worrying what the models show 300 hours away is a futile endeavor. The gfs could t figure out Debby wasn't going all the way back to Alabama. The season is rolling forward and it's gonna do whatever it is going to do and the models won't know every minute of a 364 hour run. Sit back and watch
 
People are starting to come up with reasons why the season cant get going



More East Pac activity



That should be the ATL

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Pwats in the Atlantic are way BN again as the azores high pumps in Sal and continental air. It gets shifted west as Ernesto recurve so day 7-10 might be a better opportunity
 
SD said:
Pwats in the Atlantic are way BN again as the azores high pumps in Sal and continental air. It gets shifted west as Ernesto recurve so day 7-10 might be a better opportunity
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Do you remember hearing a lot about SAL back in the 90s/80s or even early 2000s?

It seems to be a major issue almost every year nowadays.
 
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