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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot
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NCSNOW
Member
There's Francine and her cousin Gordon on the Bus and ETA in the Conus 16 days: Aug 30.
See Lex, you don't even need a computer Model: Satellite will do you just as well:
See Lex, you don't even need a computer Model: Satellite will do you just as well:
lexxnchloe
Member
We will see. The pattern is perfect for a wave to make it across but the GFS says no to waves up to hour 300.
At 324 its peak season and this is JB's 100% perfect pattern. With that huge high over the NE US and NW ATL there SHOULD be lowering pressures to the south in the SW ATL, but there isnt. Something is wrong and things just cant get started. Yes, maybe all of a sudden the models will light up with activity.
You just arent going to see this very often 1031mb high in the NW ATL but now pressures are above normal everywhere
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lexxnchloe
Member
One thing to watch is the Euro does have a wave north of the islands at 216 but will the high build in over top?
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/atlantic-hurricane-season-active-early-august-2024
This article is a little dated but it helps explain why tropical development has been so hard to come by in what should be and still might be perfect conditions for an above normal hurricane season. Cut the Saharan dust out of the equation and get the MJO phases to cooperate and then business might pick up in the Atlantic.
This article is a little dated but it helps explain why tropical development has been so hard to come by in what should be and still might be perfect conditions for an above normal hurricane season. Cut the Saharan dust out of the equation and get the MJO phases to cooperate and then business might pick up in the Atlantic.
lexxnchloe
Member
Huge difference in GFS and Euro
Brent
Member
Yeah give it a couple weeks. If we're still dead at the end of the month clearly something is off
I would be shocked if we are dead
Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th:
As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42).
If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67).
One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.
As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42).
If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67).
One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.
Belle Lechat
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After the recent impressive display of activity wouldn't it seem counterintuitive to expect it to suddenly fall off a cliff?
NCSNOW
Member
Think the little wave that's getting ready to come off Africa in about 24-36 hours has a shot. Imbedded in a pretty good moist envelope per water vapor satellite. Time will tell.
lexxnchloe
Member
Another one who agrees with me that the MT is configured wrong
He does say it might change in late Aug. Until it does storm formation will be sporadic
Just way too far north. The Low pressures north of the CV Islands is unworkable
He does say it might change in late Aug. Until it does storm formation will be sporadic
Just way too far north. The Low pressures north of the CV Islands is unworkable
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lexxnchloe
Member
JB says its possible for a storm to form off the coast in 10 days. Will need something to get the season moving
Good Ole JB said early last week Labor Day weekend in SE could have another storm to deal with, we shall see
With Ernesto, the season continues to move with not only high ACE but also with a very high % of that ACE W of 60W. It currently is already near 85%. Assuming we get to near 65 as of Aug 20th, the % of ACE for season to date would still then be ~85% with 55 of 65 ACE W of 60W, which could rank as high as 5th highest:
Projected Aug 20 ACE W of 60W:
1) 2005: 78 of 85 (92%)
2) 1886: 69 of 75 (92%)
3) 1899: 69 of 77 (90%)
4) 1933: 63 of 80 (79%)
5) 2024: 55 of 65 (85%)
1893 is way back with only 41 of 67 (61%) W of 60W
The following graph shows how high 2024’s ACE was as of Aug 8th (in yellow):
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lexxnchloe
Member
If the preseason forecasts had been around 13/7/3 then i would agree this is an active season. They were more like 24/12/6 so its inactive compared to forecasts. Webb is joining me and others now noticing the lack of Wave development.
By the way, having 65 ACE as of 8/20 would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of only 18.9:
If we get 24 ACE during just 8/13-20, that would be a whopping 4 times the 1991-2020 normal of only a mere 6 during that period! And 1991-2020 was during a very active era!
If we get 24 ACE during just 8/13-20, that would be a whopping 4 times the 1991-2020 normal of only a mere 6 during that period! And 1991-2020 was during a very active era!
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lexxnchloe
Member
If the EAST Pac gets active again it will delay the ATL even longer. There are some signs Sept will be active.
At 18z the GFS is going nuts again in the East Pac. I was afraid the ATL was taking so long to get started that the East Pac would come back to life. IF this happens its really hard to see how the ATL gets active but i guess its happened before
At 18z the GFS is going nuts again in the East Pac. I was afraid the ATL was taking so long to get started that the East Pac would come back to life. IF this happens its really hard to see how the ATL gets active but i guess its happened before
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Belle Lechat
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Henry2326
Member
Exactly what should be expected.
NoSnowATL
Member
Might get very fishy soon.
Too far north, you want that dark red around 15N or south of it. That's a look of fishy storms like last year.
Brent
Member
Last thing we need is $5 gas anyway
NCSNOW
Member
Coming off the coast, see if she can navigate the dry air sandwich.
lexxnchloe
Member
1966 seems like the best we will be able to do now. Maybe a combo of 66/68. 95/2005 no way.
2005 with 28/15/7 was an extreme season and hasn’t been a realistic possibility for several weeks. Also, its second highest ACE of 245 is pretty much out of reach. My May prog was 21/10/5, which I still think is doable. In addition, I’m at ~200 ACE for now. Let’s see how much ACE Ernesto produces.
2024 will almost certainly smash 1968. Its ACE is already nearly up to the full 1968 ACE as it had no MH. It had only 9 NS and 2024 is already at 5. It had only 5 H and 2024 is already at 3.
Brent
Member
Eps showing signs of life right on schedule 
Consistent with the 12Z EPS, the 18Z GEFS has a moderate signal for potential increased activity 15-25N, 50-70W on 8/29 from an AEW that leaves Africa ~8/24. PWAT is above avg and mean SLP is below avg. Shear is ~avg. SSTs are ~85F, which are ~2-3F warmer than longterm normal:
Brent
Member
I swear we do this most years... people don't think the season will ever start in early mid August but I've always been told August 20th is like a light switch
Wait, I thought this season was dead because we didn’t have hyper activity before prime time?
lexxnchloe
Member
It might just be me but that seems a little puny with Aug30 being peak season. GFS still shows nothing now thru AUG31. there is a weak wave south of CV but something has gone wrong in the Atlantic.
You can’t base it on the end of the GFS op run. The NHC and the NWS sure doesn’t. Both the GEFS and the EPS are showing some noise going into the last 10 days of August
It’s not Aug 30th, it’s Sep 10th!
NCSNOW
Member
The ensemble candidates: I been watching the one that's just exited. However the ensembles may be eyeing the one that's in central Africa. It always amazes me how a few thunderstorms over Africa sometimes end up being Major Hurricanes 10 days latter. Love watching the CV season on satellite, instead of waiting on models.
lexxnchloe
Member
Peak isnt 1 day. For me its aug 15-sept 30
This is an example of whats happening to the waves off Africa. At hour 72 there is a well developed wave with a 1003 mb low. Should be a candidate to develop
72
At hour 90 it has jumped NW into dusty, dry, stable air and its in the process of dissipation
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The dry air in the Atlantic has been a factor that has really put a lid on what was predicted to be a record setting hurricane season. If that lessens or abates things might get interesting in the tropics.
lexxnchloe
Member
I sure hope so. You just dont get a better pattern than this in peak season yet in season predicted to be hyper-active nothing. With that big high over the NW ATL pressures should be lowering in the SW ATL. Lets see what happens after 180
Nothing happened. There is a very weak wave in the central ATL but its too far north to matter.
The pattern repeats and still nothing can get going in the SW ATL, GOM. or W Carib
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NCSNOW
Member
It's the Chem Trails we keep seeing. Big Brother is controlling the wx... Just kidding
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
August 30 is peak season. Peak season isn’t a single day. It’s like a 2 month period from Mid August to Mid October. We are at the beginning of peak season right now.
NoSnowATL
Member
The peak date for the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, when the likelihood of a named storm in the Atlantic is highest. This is the date when the most tropical storms and hurricanes have occurred in historical records