Brent
Member
Gotta stop watching the op gfs runs they can't even get next week right
Like I said last night... August 20th is the start of the peak to me
Like I said last night... August 20th is the start of the peak to me
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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
lexxnchloe
Member
Euro is interesting. Wave in the central ATL that should move wsw under the ridge
But of course not. Heads NW and weakens. Too far north to matter in any case.
There are slightly lower than normal pressures off FLA. Maybe something could get going there. Off Africa the MT is still wrong. High pressures south of the islands, low pressures north.
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The 12Z GEFS and EPS continue to have moderate signals for renewed activity that originates from AEWs that emerge from Africa starting 8/23-4. This isn’t surprising considering the overall conditions, the very active early season, and that being during the early part of peak season. So, the break after Ernesto is liable to end up very short (too short if you ask me).
Watch the front that gets pinned off shore next week. There are a couple of waves that come off of Africa that will likely end up pretty void of convection but their overall vorticity is traceable. The 12z Euro has an inverted trough north of the Bahamas at D10
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Compare this to pre-season forecasts of lower than normal pressures in the MDR
I know 1995 was a recurve year but i was expecting to see the Atlantic look like this. Hard to imagine something like that was even possible.
I know 1995 was a recurve year but i was expecting to see the Atlantic look like this. Hard to imagine something like that was even possible.
lexxnchloe
Member
GB!!!
I remember little Garrett (and sis, too) sitting on daddy’s lap as JB was putting together the free daily Accuwx videos over 20 years ago.
Downeastnc
Member
Cat 4 this far north is pretty nuts in the Pacific
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lexxnchloe
Member
GFS up to sept 01 and still nothing
lexxnchloe
Member
Euro shows a spark
No sparks on 06z GFS
No sparks on 06z GFS
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lexxnchloe
Member
Another dry wave? How could moisture actually been so impressive in 1995?
Henry2326
Member
Good grief.....hurricane season has flipped on the end of August into September for decades.....
lexxnchloe
Member
I think the season from Hell might have become the season from a dying campfire.
Ben remains optimistic but its getting to the point its go time or no time.
Ben remains optimistic but its getting to the point its go time or no time.
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Henry2326
Member
In the three weeks between August 25, 2017 and September 20, hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria made landfall in the United States in rapid succession.
Bet they all said the season was dead before that happened. The truth is nobody knows what's gonna happen.
If we are lucky, nothing will happen. But I'm not betting on that.
Bet they all said the season was dead before that happened. The truth is nobody knows what's gonna happen.
If we are lucky, nothing will happen. But I'm not betting on that.
lexxnchloe
Member
At 12Z a low forms off Virginia that might be interesting if it were 350 miles sw. There is a wave off Africa
Brent
Member
Another place i lurk sometimes had wondered about 2 weeks before Katrina in 2005(which is still over a week away from even forming right now) if the Gulf would ever have another hurricane again and that year was on record pace way ahead of this year... Strongest hurricanes ever in the Gulf in the next month and a half after that...
I'm hoping we bust and you should too and nobody will be upset if it does but things can flip overnight out there regardless of what the gfs says at 300 hours. Nobody knows what will happen
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lexxnchloe
Member
