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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

lexxnchloe said:
different view, its trucking west

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This is more of a fwiw/mainly for entertainment run than the late portion of the 12Z CMC imo because unlike the CMC this Euro is very different from prior Euros. Interestingly, this isn’t at all from a tropical origin and is instead related to a combo of PTC-8’s vorticity going NE and the vorticity associated with that 32N, 70W circulation that I mentioned earlier going N. They combine and get stuck near NYC under a new Rex block. Then a new surface low forms Wed night, moves S, and then turns W (as you show).
 
GaWx said:
This is more of a fwiw/mainly for entertainment run than the late portion of the 12Z CMC imo because unlike the CMC this Euro is very different from prior Euros. Interestingly, this isn’t at all from a tropical origin and is instead related to a combo of PTC-8’s vorticity going NE and the vorticity associated with that 32N, 70W circulation that I mentioned earlier going N. They combine and get stuck near NYC under a new Rex block. Then a new surface low forms Wed night, moves S, and then turns W (as you show).
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Yes, 3 very different scenarios. Cat4 into Mexico, Cat2 just off the SE coast, west moving low at 34N
 
The 0Z GFS also has a similar storm that comes in a little later. Before that interestingly enough, it does something similar to the 12Z Euro forming a weak LLC SE of NYC at least partially from the remnants of PTC-8. It similarly moves S and gets down to 1001 mb. But instead of turning W to NC, it then turns SW and goes over C FL while opening up.

Meanwhile the GFS gives lexx what she craves so badly.
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z GFS also has a similar storm that comes in a little later. Before that interestingly enough, it does something similar to the 12Z Euro forming a weak LLC SE of NYC at least partially from the remnants of PTC-8. It similarly moves S and gets down to 1001 mb. But instead of turning W to NC, it then turns SW and goes over C FL while opening up.

Meanwhile the GFS gives lexx what she craves so badly.
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1726557355466.png
 
There sure is unusually strong agreement on hurricane formation in the NW Carribean/GOM in the 7-10-day range with Genesis on day 5 in the Wester Carribean from the Central American gyre.
 
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