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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

From LC

But then again, most -ENSO years are going to surprise you with cases of super-intense storms and widespread/numerous output of late season tropical cyclones. I will stand by my original call of 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major storms. The current roster of developed warm-core cyclonic circulations is 6 named, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major. I emphasize a long-lasting season with clustering between now and Halloween. There is still a threat for a high-impact system affecting the entire Eastern Seaboard between September 30 and October 15. Most schemes show a broad, but negative-tilt trough complex over the eastern half of North America, with a weakness across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula. This plays into the linear wave progression that has linked with the remnants of Francine and a disturbed area below South Carolina. I also should mention that the subtropical westerlies in the Pacific Basin have only advanced to just past the International Dateline; the earliest these winds could reach the middle of the equatorial Atlantic Basin would be in about a month. Lastly, La Nina is approaching the moderate strength range in sector 3.4, while the entire field of warm waters between the Americas and the Cape Verde Islands is much warmer than normal. All of this should tell you that the useful malaprop "It ain't over 'til it's over" applies here. Give it time, folks. But next time, I would advise not throwing "record numbers" out like candy.
 
The various ensembles overall continue to look fairly active for late Sept. with FL possibly in the crosshairs from a Caribbean originating storm.
 
Note what looks like a circulation near 32N, 70W. This came from that further east convection that was separate from PTC8. It likely will never amount to much and it isn’t heading toward the SE, regardless, though it is interesting to see.

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GFS and Canadian both show the same hurricane but they go in different directions. The cat 4 at 240 on the gfs is here and heads to Mexico

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CMC at 240

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Euro is very strange. No cane in GOM but some lower pressures. What it does have is a westward moving storm and between 216 and 240 its moving west at a good pace

216

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240
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