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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

I was in Shaggeyville this a.m. rain = no fishing or golf. So we came on back.
 
Looks like the crazy nam is back to being crazy for this low off the coast. Year after year the nams always go extreme during all seasons
 
Shaggy said:
Looks like the crazy nam is back to being crazy for this low off the coast. Year after year the nams always go extreme during all seasons
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1. This system could probably use its own thread imho.

2. The extratropical LLC is near 31.5N, 76.5W. Below is the latest SST map. The LLC is over 84F water in the Gulf Stream. On the progged path, it will cross water as warm as 85 in the middle of the GS. But then SSTs fall sharply to BN at the coast of the Carolinas (77-78) thanks to recent BN temps/clouds. I’d think that would help keep the storm from being too strong at landfall should it become tropical with the peak perhaps before landfall. My guess is a 995 mb TS at landfall with winds increased due to the tight gradient vs the NE US high:

IMG_0265.jpeg
 
GaWx said:
1. This system could probably use its own thread imho.

2. The extratropical LLC is near 31.5N, 76.5W. Below is the latest SST map. The LLC is over 84F water in the Gulf Stream. On the progged path, it will cross water as warm as 85 in the middle of the GS. But then SSTs fall sharply to BN at the coast of the Carolinas (77-78) thanks to recent BN temps/clouds. I’d think that would help keep the storm from being too strong at landfall should it become tropical with the peak perhaps before landfall. My guess is a 995 mb TS at landfall with winds increased due to the tight gradient vs the NE US high:

View attachment 151087
Click to expand...
The Winds should be weak as it will be a weak system but like you said the gradient should allow this to at least perform up to expected winds. Could see an overperformer on the north side if it remains subtropical and has a larger wind field on the north side amd that gradient really packs in
 
Shaggy said:
Wouldn't be surprised if new hanover and brunswick county did if it comes in like the gfs shows. Wilmington is horrible for flooded roads.
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Ground is Saturated here in Pender, Will not take much..
Wind(s) and light rain all Day today.. (Mist & Fog)..
 
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