Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Bham 99]

View attachment 151049

James Spann just said that that it will probably be a cold core system

 

[lexxnchloe]

James Spann just said that that it will probably be a cold core system

Thats possible storm 2 11 days from now

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[JHS]

The 6z has major changes on the early week Carolina system, with it now taking basically the same track Debby took.

 

[Henry2326]

GFS says here is a scenario.
Similar to Ian.

 

[Henry2326]

View attachment 151054

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend
along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf
Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form
early next week while the system moves generally northwestward
toward the coast. Additional information on this system can be found
in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[SD]

Well this is pretty much it lets see what it can do

 

[Henry2326]

GFS says here is a scenario.
Similar to Ian.

View attachment 151055

View attachment 151056

Ensembles show some interest.

 

[Shaggy]

Well this is pretty much it lets see what it can do View attachment 151057

Hopefully since it's a hybrid at best it can utilize that and actually get a bit of wind over a larger area. Could see some widespread 40+ gusts with that gradient to its north.

 

[Downeastnc]

Hopefully since it's a hybrid at best it can utilize that and actually get a bit of wind over a larger area. Could see some widespread 40+ gusts with that gradient to its north.

Surface low pressure "center" is few hundred miles SE of that, need this to drift SE and hook up with that, then maybe we see a named storm out of this...


Area

 

[lexxnchloe]

Weak storm num 3 this year

 

[Downeastnc]

Actually looks better than I thought it would at this point, the MLC continues to drift SE towards the area of lower surface pressures. There is a lot going on out there and frankly it is a mess and probably does not have the kind of time it would need to become anything more than a weak named storm.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Actually looks better than I thought it would at this point, the MLC continues to drift SE towards the area of lower surface pressures. There is a lot going on out there and frankly it is a mess and probably does not have the kind of time it would need to become anything more than a weak named storm.

 

[Downeastnc]

Ensembles on both GFS and Euro really showing the low now, neither do much with it though maybe a weak TS into the Carolinas at best...NHC up to 50% on formation though.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Ensembles on both GFS and Euro really showing the low now, neither do much with it though maybe a weak TS into the Carolinas at best...NHC up to 50% on formation though.

Stronger on ICON

 

[lexxnchloe]