Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

[MichaelAndrews]

 

[Brent]

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[Henry2326]

The last 5 runs of the GFS had no ots solutions.
2 were in the corner....mimicking Helene.
1 in the panhandle FL
1 lower west coast FL
1in Cuba, headed to west coast of FL.

 

[Brent]

Only 5 hurricanes have hit the US after November 1st

 

[GolfishardIknowit70]

Only 5 hurricanes have hit the US after November 1st

Troughs and ridges Brent

 

[Mahomeless]

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Only 5 hurricanes have hit the US after November 1st

Wouldn't ocean temps be cooler in November which would make it harder to sustain a hurricane ?

 

[Brent]

Wouldn't ocean temps be cooler in November which would make it harder to sustain a hurricane ?

It's probably that plus usually the troughs are strong enough by then to keep them east(like Michelle 2001). Close but no cigar

The last couple got buried in Central America and never went north

 

[lexxnchloe]

East

 

[Brent]

Interestingly Election night 2020 had a big hurricane into Central America

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Me and the wife are headed to Playa Del Carmen on the 10th so the tropics better calm tf down

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Henry2326]

Oh my.....icon looks like Euro

 

[Henry2326]

06z GFS. No Escape for 2 twirling lows but avoids conus. What is with the double low thing this season?!?!?!

 

[Henry2326]

06z Ensemble has a shift more North than 00z.

 

[Henry2326]

Hope this sticks for conus.....sorry for Islands.

 

[Shaggy]

Hope this sticks for conus.....sorry for Islands.

View attachment 153561

Really in line with what ensembles were showing yesterday so believable

 

[EV/WS]

 

[Brent]

Hope this sticks for conus.....sorry for Islands.

View attachment 153561

That would be a lot more likely this time of year

It's very hard to get a US hit now not impossible but hard

 

[Shawn]

That would be a lot more likely this time of year

It's very hard to get a US hit now not impossible but hard

I'm afraid of cutoff lows.

 

[JHS]

I'm afraid of cutoff lows.

They are what made Helene and Hugo track like they did and came close to bringing Fran into SC.

 

[Shaggy]

I noticed when the gfs was running the southeast landfall for 3 orn4 runs most of the ensembles were well east of the coast. Now we've the op join that off the coast scenario but this morning several ensembles went to a Florida impact again.

Think we still see some shifts in future. This is a 4 run trend

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

Moving west on the EURO.


At 192

 

[vtrap90]

View attachment 153562

 

[lexxnchloe]

Moving west but weak

 

[Brent]

NHC getting interested

 

[Henry2326]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Some
gradual development of this system will be possible through the end
of next week while it meanders or drifts northeastward over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

 

[Shaggy]

18z gefs was back to clustered over the western Caribbean?

 

[lexxnchloe]

Moving wnw

 

[Brent]

18z gefs was back to clustered over the western Caribbean?

 

[lexxnchloe]

Euro and ICON develop a low north of the islands. GFS tries to do both

 

[Brent]

Big hurricane in the Bahamas on the GFS stays east of the US

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

Heads NE from here

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Henry2326]

06z Ensemble moves west.

 

[Shaggy]

Big hurricane in the Bahamas on the GFS stays east of the US

As long as that low to its northeast is there and real then it will break the ridge down and allow this Bahamas storm to follow. If that wasn't there and the ridge extended west we would have had another problem.