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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

GaWx said:
TD7 is about to be upgraded to TS Gordon.
Click to expand...

This had been released, which is why I said it was about to be upgraded:

AL, 07, 2024091212, , BEST, 0, 175N, 339W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 20, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GORDON, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,


But that was then replaced by this, meaning no upgrade yet (psyche):

AL, 07, 2024091212, , BEST, 0, 175N, 339W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 20, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
 
084940_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Track guidance diverges considerably
early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered
northeast of the Leeward Islands. This track forecast stays close
to the global model consensus and places less weight on the
regional hurricane models which depict a considerably weaker
and less organized system. This produces a track forecast that is
slightly faster and to the left of the previous forecast.

While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual
strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and
marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance came in lower for this
cycle. We show the system becoming a tropical storm in the next
day, followed by the intensity only slowly increasing to 45 knots in
the next five days. However, there is potential for greater
strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone
will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs
around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft.
The new forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but
above the latest model consensus.
 
12z ICON loses the feature on the SE coast and the central Atlantic spins in place for 4 days ratcheting up to 977 pressure. I think it's TD7.....

icon_mslp_wind_atl_fh180-180.gif
 
weather bubba said:
Is it time to start a thread on TD7 which may soon become Gordon? I know it will probably become a fish storm but according to the NWS discussion there is some uncertainty about that.
Click to expand...
With the big highs that have been consistent over the north Atlantic if there was ever a year for some wonky mid latitude west turns its this year
 
GaWx said:
Other 12Zs for potential low forming off SE coast:

-GFS 1003 TS that landfalls near Wilmington
-CMC/UKMET: no TC/STC
Click to expand...
The GFS is hilarious. First it has a weak storm hit SE NC.

1726161222671.png


Then it develops another low too far offshore

1726161303388.png

Then tries again


1726161405021.png
 
We are wasting a perfect pattern for something to develop in the SW ATL. A seaason where nothing can do anything. Its just about a perfect pattern for late Sept for a cane to form in the SW ATL and hit the coast but nothing can get going this season. Big high in NW ATL, trof over the central US and still nothing.


1726161686532.png
 
weather bubba said:
Is it time to start a thread on TD7 which may soon become Gordon? I know it will probably become a fish storm but according to the NWS discussion there is some uncertainty about that.
Click to expand...

My opinion is to wait as long as a fish storm remains likely and TD7/Gordon doesn’t start to dominate this thread.
 
weather bubba said:
Is it time to start a thread on TD7 which may soon become Gordon? I know it will probably become a fish storm but according to the NWS discussion there is some uncertainty about that.
Click to expand...
Probably no need for a separate thread unless it seems it would get west of Bermuda
 
The potential low forming off the SE might warrant its own thread soon:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
445 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2024

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST STILL DEPENDS ON
WHETHER THIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SE COAST, HIGH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALL THE MODELS ARE PLAYING OUT A
DIFFERENT SCENARIO AS TO IF AND WHEN THE LOW DEVELOPS, AND HOW
STRONG IT IS GOING TO BE. NHC HAS A 30% OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
FOR THIS LOW ON THEIR 7-DAY TROPICAL OUTLOOK. TO SAY THE LEAST,
THERE IS A LOT TO DETERMINE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND INTENSITY OF A POTENTIAL
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.
 
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