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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

GaWx said:
The ICON (arguably as good of a global model as any recently) on the new run (12Z) continues to be far different from the model consensus that has a surface low form just off the SE US this weekend into early next week. The ICON continues to develop it well offshore the E US.

More 12Z: GFS/CMC have a TS form offshore the SE that moves back into S NC to SC/NC border, similar to 0Z Euro, but far different from ICON

UKMET has no TC identified in its textual output
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Yep....I'm an ICON and HWRF fan, for those who haven't picked up on that yet. Lol

ICON offshore annnnnddddd.....Central Atlantic dressed up and who knows where it it will go on 9/18.

icon_mslp_wind_atl_fh174-174.gif
 
Henry2326 said:
You might ask the folks in NO tomorrow just how dead was it....lol
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Thats like asking people in buffalo that got 38 inches of snow in one day in Nov was the winter dead even though most in the east had below normal snow and the winter was indeed dead. Fran continues the pattern of weak cat1's this season. 25/12/6 with above avg chances for the whole coast of a major hit was the forecast. Its a dead season. A weakening cat1 is no aug 2020 for Louisiana.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Thats like asking people in buffalo that got 38 inches of snow in one day in Nov was the winter dead even though most in the east had below normal snow and the winter was indeed dead. Fran continues the pattern of weak cat1's this season. 25/12/6 with above avg chances for the whole coast of a major hit was the forecast. Its a dead season. A weakening cat1 is no aug 2020 for Louisiana.
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"If no wind, it's a dead season".....lol
 
Regarding the potential low forming offshore the SE US late this weekend into early next week:
The 12Z Euro has only a hardly detectable very weak surface low just offshore SC/GA.

So, the Euro and UKMET have nothing significant. The ICON is well offshore with a 1007 sfc low. The GFS/CMC have a TS or STS move back into ~S NC. So, no consensus.
 
GaWx said:
The ICON (arguably as good of a global model as any recently) on the new run (12Z) continues to be far different from the model consensus that has a surface low form just off the SE US this weekend into early next week. The ICON continues to develop it well offshore the E US.

More 12Z: GFS/CMC have a TS form offshore the SE that moves back into S NC to SC/NC border, similar to 0Z Euro, but far different from ICON

UKMET has no TC identified in its textual output
Click to expand...
CMC is much stronger at 12z

1726077342321.png


0Z


1726077405073.png
 
GaWx said:
Regarding the potential low forming offshore the SE US late this weekend into early next week:
The 12Z Euro has only a hardly detectable very weak surface low just offshore the SE.

So, the Euro and UKMET have nothing significant. The ICON is well offshore with a 1007 sfc low. The GFS/CMC have a TS or STS move back into ~S NC. So, no consensus.
Click to expand...
EURO disappointing but unless its onboard i doubt anything meaningful develops
 
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