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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

SD said:
This pattern is getting weird with Francine moving north then back SE some and this second low potentially forming off of the SE coast
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It makes sense though with that big blocking high to the north though. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if we start seeing some models want to still Francine somewhere over the Tennessee Valley
 
Chazwin said:
It makes sense though with that big blocking high to the north though. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if we start seeing some models want to still Francine somewhere over the Tennessee Valley
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Yep the only outlet for Francine is one the weekend when the western trough kicks out through the northern rockies. If it doesn't exit then it's likely to start leaking SE as the SE low starts taking shape. Imo there's a high high ceiling for rain 5-8 inches for our area over the next 10 days but a floor of 0
 
SD said:
Yep the only outlet for Francine is one the weekend when the western trough kicks out through the northern rockies. If it doesn't exit then it's likely to start leaking SE as the SE low starts taking shape. Imo there's a high high ceiling for rain 5-8 inches for our area over the next 10 days but a floor of 0
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gfs basically just has a weak low that goes inland and does nothing. Navgem 22 MB stronger than 0Z and hits NC as a hurricane

1725994488727.png
 
SD said:
Yep the only outlet for Francine is one the weekend when the western trough kicks out through the northern rockies. If it doesn't exit then it's likely to start leaking SE as the SE low starts taking shape. Imo there's a high high ceiling for rain 5-8 inches for our area over the next 10 days but a floor of 0
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And yes, the Navgem isnt the top of the line. The EURO has an identical track and is 10 mb stronger than 0Z


1725994595694.png
 




The American Storm

@BigJoeBastardi

Euro showing in no uncertain terms development of our subtropical worry in the 6-10 off south Atlantic coast. Started covering this Saturday. Week 3 looks like a problem for FLA and surrounding areas as MJO swings into favored phases. Ridge over troubled water persists into Oct


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I don't think your even answering what's being asked here. Is Francine your low that pops up off the Carolina Coast? Where's Francine on this model, that'll most likely have an effect of these future storms track(s) if blocking remains to the north.

Posting models run after model run is getting old (actually got old about 2months ago...)
 
DTB247 said:
View attachment 150919
I don't think your even answering what's being asked here. Is Francine your low that pops up off the Carolina Coast? Where's Francine on this model, that'll most likely have an effect of these future storms track(s) if blocking remains to the north.

Posting models run after model run is getting old (actually got old about 2months ago...)
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UM. well i will continue to post model runs that pertain to cane season. As far as where it comes from, why does that matter? But to answer your question i will post yet another model run


Here is francine at 72


1725997988655.png


AT 96 is where the Carolins storm shows up on the EURO and its clearly not Francine. Franny isnt flying 800 miles se in 24 hours
ITS washing out over SE ARK



1725998158902.png

What the EURO is developing is what was going to be the superstorm a week ago. Its the wave currently NE of the Antilles

1725998280180.png
 
Hopefully that answers the question. Its not Francine but the wave interacting with the offshore trof.
 
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