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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. Is anyone else watching this? For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23
0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28
1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30
0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30
1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37
1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

Check the latest TWO out…they raised the chance from 30% to 50% on the area near the Bahamas:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force non-tropical
low pressure system located northeast of the northwestern Bahamas
continue to become better organized. Although environmental
conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional
development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could form
today or this evening while the low moves northeastward to
east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast
to increase later tonight, which should limit any chances for
further development. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Check out the end of the 12z GFS today! It's fantasy land,but GFS has been consistent with a storm emerging from the Caribbean for the last few days. Not what we need right now.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png
 
Struggling to find the right place to get enough eyes but not get the post removed.

Raleigh native and been here for 42+ years except for a short stint I spent getting my art/marketing degree at Western Carolina University.

Point of the post, I teamed up with a friend here in Raleigh who’s a screen printer and have a shirt running for the next two weeks to raise proceeds ($14 per shirt) for WNC. Check it out, share with friends!

https://humblymade.com/collections/campaigns-by-humbly-made

(Feel free to move to the right place if I’m in the wrong!)
 
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