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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

And NHC agrees with them all.

two_atl_7d0.png

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished again in associated with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. While the system is currently embedded in an
environment that is not favorable for development over the next
couple of days, the system is forecast to move generally westward to
west-southwestward across the tropical Atlantic, where environmental
conditions could become more favorable for gradual development in
the central Tropical Atlantic by the mid to latter part of this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
 
Henry2326 said:
And NHC agrees with them all.

View attachment 153217

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished again in associated with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. While the system is currently embedded in an
environment that is not favorable for development over the next
couple of days, the system is forecast to move generally westward to
west-southwestward across the tropical Atlantic, where environmental
conditions could become more favorable for gradual development in
the central Tropical Atlantic by the mid to latter part of this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Click to expand...

It is this nondevelopment well east that’s actually making it potentially more dangerous to land area in the W basin. The only way this late in the year something moving through the MDR has on record (back to 1851) hit land in the W basin is nondevelopment until near the longitude of the Lesser Antilles or further W.
 
GaWx said:
It is this nondevelopment well east that’s actually making it potentially more dangerous to land area in the W basin. The only way this late in the year something moving through the MDR has on record (back to 1851) hit land in the W basin is nondevelopment until near the longitude of the Lesser Antilles or further W.
Click to expand...
Appears to be the year of first in a very long time.
 
GaWx said:
It is this nondevelopment well east that’s actually making it potentially more dangerous to land area in the W basin. The only way this late in the year something moving through the MDR has on record (back to 1851) hit land in the W basin is nondevelopment until near the longitude of the Lesser Antilles or further W.
Click to expand...
Another exceptionally unusual thing is that many models have this system tracking WSW to one degree or another from near the Lesser Antilles to near the SE or Central American coast. Unusual at any time of year much less this deep into October!
 
GaWx said:
It is this nondevelopment well east that’s actually making it potentially more dangerous to land area in the W basin. The only way this late in the year something moving through the MDR has on record (back to 1851) hit land in the W basin is nondevelopment until near the longitude of the Lesser Antilles or further W.
Click to expand...
If a ridge of high pressure ends up off the east coast in that time-frame, a system will not recurve and a good chance getting in the gulf, unfortunately. However, a trough coming down could change that since we are in mid October imo
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Another exceptionally unusual thing is that many models have this system tracking WSW to one degree or another from near the Lesser Antilles to near the SE or Central American coast. Unusual at any time of year much less this deep into October!
Click to expand...

12Z UKMET: keeps it near steady state through entire run, which ends with it moving slowly (<10 mph) WNW well N of the Greater Antilles (I’d have to see H5 maps to determine if that would likely recurve safely from the US):

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.10.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 33.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2024 0 17.9N 33.8W 1013 25
0000UTC 14.10.2024 12 17.6N 36.6W 1013 24
1200UTC 14.10.2024 24 17.2N 38.6W 1013 23
0000UTC 15.10.2024 36 17.0N 40.3W 1012 23
1200UTC 15.10.2024 48 17.0N 42.4W 1011 25
0000UTC 16.10.2024 60 17.0N 45.2W 1011 26
1200UTC 16.10.2024 72 17.5N 48.3W 1011 29
0000UTC 17.10.2024 84 18.5N 51.8W 1011 32
1200UTC 17.10.2024 96 20.6N 55.5W 1011 33
0000UTC 18.10.2024 108 22.0N 58.1W 1011 30
1200UTC 18.10.2024 120 23.2N 60.3W 1013 29
0000UTC 19.10.2024 132 23.9N 62.3W 1013 25
1200UTC 19.10.2024 144 24.0N 64.5W 1012 30
0000UTC 20.10.2024 156 24.2N 66.0W 1011 31
1200UTC 20.10.2024 168 24.7N 67.5W 1009 29
 
LC:


After the recent tragedies regarding major hurricanes, it can be surmised that many want to believe newfound media and Internet comments suggesting that hurricane season is over. Now while we are seeing a largely quiet pattern across North America, with manageable temperatures and abundant sunshine, it seems probable that the tropics are going to throw a few more punches at the. I suspect the threat is growing for at least one more major hurricane strike into the eastern third of the USA, with another risk probable in the countries that rim the Caribbean Sea. We will see how things work out as far as the predictions, but 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major cyclones may just work out before the westerly flow aloft and colder, drier air masses end the season for good on November 30.

The hurricane forecast has some importance here, since we have a danger of interaction between baroclinic systems, as well as cold and dry air masses against the warm/humid tropical regimes. If you consider why Milton was such an awful event, the storm was starting to convert to an extratropical structure due to upper air influence. Increased vorticity against a three air mass convergence created maxi-tornadoes, which killed more people than the wind core and heavy rains which ripped up the Interstate 4 corridor. Now imagine such an amalgam hitting the Eastern Seaboard. I think it unwise to bring up an analog, but there are two standout Halloween storms that are not far from your memory, to be sure.
 
lexxnchloe said:
LC:


After the recent tragedies regarding major hurricanes, it can be surmised that many want to believe newfound media and Internet comments suggesting that hurricane season is over. Now while we are seeing a largely quiet pattern across North America, with manageable temperatures and abundant sunshine, it seems probable that the tropics are going to throw a few more punches at the. I suspect the threat is growing for at least one more major hurricane strike into the eastern third of the USA, with another risk probable in the countries that rim the Caribbean Sea. We will see how things work out as far as the predictions, but 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major cyclones may just work out before the westerly flow aloft and colder, drier air masses end the season for good on November 30.

The hurricane forecast has some importance here, since we have a danger of interaction between baroclinic systems, as well as cold and dry air masses against the warm/humid tropical regimes. If you consider why Milton was such an awful event, the storm was starting to convert to an extratropical structure due to upper air influence. Increased vorticity against a three air mass convergence created maxi-tornadoes, which killed more people than the wind core and heavy rains which ripped up the Interstate 4 corridor. Now imagine such an amalgam hitting the Eastern Seaboard. I think it unwise to bring up an analog, but there are two standout Halloween storms that are not far from your memory, to be sure.
Click to expand...
good ole Jb says watch 25th thru nov 13th time frame for hurricanes
 
Given the last few weeks, that's a concerning look to say the least. All eyes will be on the Atlantic in the days ahead.
 
Thankfully, it appears the threat from 94L to the US is waning. The system either is driven into the Greater Antillies where it dies or runs out of gas in the Bahamas and gets picked up by a east coast trough and whisked out to sea.

The clock is ticking on any further meaningful US landfalls.
 
two_atl_7d0 (2).png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded
in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next
couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally
westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could
become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to
latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the
system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near
the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water
while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central
America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
 
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