Brent
Member
Getting unsettled for sure
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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
Code Red
A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward
across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or
two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...
70 percent.
A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward
across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or
two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...
70 percent.
Henry2326
Member
Invest tomorrow
Brent
Member
Or now apparently
``AL, 92, 2024100500, , BEST, 0, 220N, 955W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS028, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, SPAWNINVEST, al712024 to al922024,``
Henry2326
Member
Dang....I'm goodOr now apparently
``AL, 92, 2024100500, , BEST, 0, 220N, 955W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS028, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, SPAWNINVEST, al712024 to al922024,``
You ever see a name like this? On Tropical tidbits....
92L GENESIS028
Henry2326
Member
End of GFS.....can we just fast forward to this day???
lexxnchloe
Member
OCT doesnt want to quit
lizajane
Member
It might be the new September!
Brent
Member
Dang....I'm good
You ever see a name like this? On Tropical tidbits....
92L GENESIS028
I just saw this but I think 28 was the test number they use(they always run tests before they go public) and maybe due to the threat happening so quickly last night they forgot to remove it
Also more storms on the GFS... Remember when the hurricane season was dead?
lexxnchloe
Member
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lexxnchloe
Member
Wow - Obviously unlikely but how insane would 3 major hurricanes hitting Florida in the span of ~3 weeks be
lexxnchloe
Member
Henry2326
Member
Go back to my post for both set of ensembles on Friday. Oct 17 was a big day on the GFS ensemble. So not really surprised that the operational has something then. Ensembles are a bit delayed from the operational now, but its there.
This is the third run of the GPS with a third storm.
This is the third run of the GPS with a third storm.
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lexxnchloe
Member
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Henry2326
Member
Yep....let's keep up with how many runs in a row. So 4 now.
lexxnchloe
Member
Shaggy
Member
I'm a fan of seasonal trends. That area of the Caribbean and gom has been a hot spot and no major pattern changes leads to the higher probability we see something form down there.
Very active late season. We are approaching secondary spike in activity per climo as well
Very active late season. We are approaching secondary spike in activity per climo as well
Brent
Member
It happened in 2004. The three over the Peninsula actually crossed paths and Frances and Jeanne made landfall in the same spot 3 weeks apart
.
The week 9/30-10/6 this year is the 2nd most active 9/30-10/6 in terms of ACE back to 1951! Only 2016 had more ACE and that was almost entirely due to Matthew, which was a MH every day of that week.
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Downeastnc
Member
Well the second storm crossing Florida then bringing hurricane conditions up pretty much the entire east coast would be the icing on the cake and make this the most destructive cane year ever. Would bankrupt insurance companies for sure....
Indeed. Fortunately that’s out in fantasyland, of course.
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Interaction with the trof/upper low gives eastern NC a hybrid howler.
LickWx
Member
Rip rodanthe homes
Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. Is anyone else watching this? For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23
0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28
1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30
0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30
1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37
1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23
0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28
1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30
0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30
1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37
1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING
Holy smokes. How would this steer Milton, if at all?
Good catch. I would presume if this developed, it would influence a little further south Milton landfall through Fujiwara interaction (strong enough to matter?) and a weakness in the SE Atlantic UL ridge. Interesting.
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
I believe there will be alot of troughing coming down mid Oct that nothing will hit anywhere except maybe Florida moving forward imo
If something does form in the NW Caribbean, with these powerful troughs dropping down, there is also the risk of a rocketship inland to the southeastern states if things line up badly.
AJ1013
Member
It also drops lows into the 50's here. The ideal storm.
Brent
Member
Remember when the season was dead
Shaggy
Member
Appears gefs still has a lot of.members in gom on the 2nd storm versus hard right exit on the op run
lexxnchloe
Member
Miami
Henry2326
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS squashes it into central america at 12 z
Euro has a hybrid howler
Euro has a hybrid howler
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Henry2326
Member
But much worse.....mother nature determined to destroy whatever is left of FL and the Southeast. .
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Isn’t that a rather unusual track for Late October ?