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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

vtrap90 said:
350 hrs out is not close
Click to expand...

The details on these very late portions of GFS runs are not important. But what is more important in looking at ensembles is that the AEW to come off ~9/10, the one causing these operational (GFS/Euro/ICON/CMC) E MDR TCs, may eventually need a bear watch. I don’t recall seeing one that active right off Africa on ensembles/operationals in at least quite awhile. And note that this is coming off Africa at about the same latitude as recent ones. Not further south. And yet it still may turn into something.

Looking back at history for AEWs that developed in the E Atlantic near or just after Sept 10th, these were 3 of the worst.
-Hugo (1989)
-Gloria (1985)
-Long Island Express (1938)

I’m by no means saying a track anything like that would likely occur as many that develop early also recurve early. Rather I am saying that 9/10 still isn’t at all too late for a long-tracked CV storm, especially with cold neutral/weak Niña.
 
IMO....this is the one to watch. It drops off Africa 9/10. They all have it placed around the same area on 9/13-9/14.

gem_mslpa_atl_fh180-180.gif

gfs_mslpa_atl_fh204-204.gif

icon_mslp_wind_atl_fh180-180 (3).gif

ecmwf_mslpa_atl_fh198-198.gif
 
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