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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

Euro has what in a normal year like 1971 might be another Doria. The low off the SE coast comes from the wave east of the islands now. But it just washes out this year.












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Beast in the WPAC.

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12z ICON liking the bounce back toward Central gulf as a cane in the 9/11ish time period.
BTW, this is the same storm that the ICON had in the gulf in the 9/11-9/12 period about a week ago.

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Euro AI does the same thing, a bit faster.

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I think the Icon has been given way too much credit this year. It's the only model that is consistently developing some of these waves, but so far has been wrong. It was way out of touch trying to over develop Debby. I am sure the Icon will eventually sniff out a threat before the other models but only because it has a tendency to develop everything.
 
thunderwolf said:
I think the Icon has been given way too much credit this year. It's the only model that is consistently developing some of these waves, but so far has been wrong. It was way out of touch trying to over develop Debby. I am sure the Icon will eventually sniff out a threat before the other models but only because it has a tendency to develop everything.
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Frankly, they all suck at predicting a storm from start to finish.....but ICON has been much better than the rest in the 7 to 10 day period.
 
GFS best start showing something if 10/6/3 will even be close

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With a nontropical low sitting in the central ATL the CV season is over so all 10/6/3 is going to hae to come from old stall fronts. 3 majors? I think JB is going to bust by alot. My upper end would be 4/2/1 for the rest of the season


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Also the huge low over Canada will sweep the GOM and west carib clean and dry. 10/6/3 is going to take a miracle

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At this point I start going with the mindset of "seasonal trends". Caring less and less about what any model shows as they have been struggling. I'll do the same in the winter when models show a good pattern constantly 10 days away that never arrives. Same here, the models can show better conditions but it will probably always remain in fantasy range.

Last week the ops runs showed nothing with the wave but ensembles still kept it alive. Going with the ensembles like I try to do proved futile as that wave is dead. Now we have had an active few runs on the gfs op but the ensembles aren't overly active.

What does the season say so far? Suppressed development for whatever dominoes lined up to squash the season so far.
 
We got our first invest in weeks.
AL, 99, 2024090512, , BEST, 0, 336N, 695W, 30, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 130, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al712024 to al992024,
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2. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the northeast and east of its center. This system
could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next couple
of days while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining
offshore of the northeastern United States. Once the low moves
over cooler waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development
is not expected. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
 
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