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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

ncjoaquin said:
I briefly have cell service. But anybody wishing for this ---- deserve for it to land straight on their house. You are stupid. No other explanation. However, I pray that you do not ever have to experience this. I pray that you will be safe. I pray that you will get the wisdom to understand that there is nothing good about this kind of weather.

I'm SW of Asheville. No power, no cell service(except where I am sitting in a mile long line for gas), no water, limited food, multiple huge trees to clean up, driving through tunnels of trees over downed power lines. ... And we are so, so fortunate and lucky compared to so many others. The destruction is unimaginable. I promise. You DO NOT want this. It's hard to believe I have to explain that.
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Man, I'm glad yall are okay. I was wondering but knew nothing would likely get through.
 
ncjoaquin said:
I briefly have cell service. But anybody wishing for this ---- deserve for it to land straight on their house. You are stupid. No other explanation. However, I pray that you do not ever have to experience this. I pray that you will be safe. I pray that you will get the wisdom to understand that there is nothing good about this kind of weather.

I'm SW of Asheville. No power, no cell service(except where I am sitting in a mile long line for gas), no water, limited food, multiple huge trees to clean up, driving through tunnels of trees over downed power lines. ... And we are so, so fortunate and lucky compared to so many others. The destruction is unimaginable. I promise. You DO NOT want this. It's hard to believe I have to explain that.
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I have friends in Morganton area as well in Asheville. No we may not understand until we see it up close in person but you are right you are fortunate. Many have loss life as well as others loss everything but their lives. Some of us are trying to help but roads have to get better before they let alot of outside help in. Definitely praying for you all.
 
POWERSTROKE said:
I have friends in Morganton area as well in Asheville. No we may not understand until we see it up close in person but you are right you are fortunate. Many have loss life as well as others loss everything but their lives. Some of us are trying to help but roads have to get better before they let alot of outside help in. Definitely praying for you all.
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Same. I heard the north side of town was hit especially hard, especially as you leave the city limits and head up to Jonas Ridge. The greenway got wrecked as well.
 
Who cares if anyone wished for it!?!?! Holy crap, seems like you have a lot of other things to worry about other than what some people wish for, unless your speculating their wishes caused this....

We all agree/know it was a historic, deadly, terrible event for millions, I was just in Black Mountain last week, doubt I'll be back for quite some time, friends in Burnsville say it'll never be the same, friends in blowing rock faired somewhat better, but are still without power and will be for some time. I hope to get up there in the next few weeks to help clean/clear debris if anyone around the Charlotte area would want to join, message me so we can coordinate.
 
DTB247 said:
Who cares if anyone wished for it!?!?! Holy crap, seems like you have a lot of other things to worry about other than what some people wish for, unless your speculating their wishes caused this....

We all agree/know it was a historic, deadly, terrible event for millions, I was just in Black Mountain last week, doubt I'll be back for quite some time, friends in Burnsville say it'll never be the same, friends in blowing rock faired somewhat better, but are still without power and will be for some time. I hope to get up there in the next few weeks to help clean/clear debris if anyone around the Charlotte area would want to join, message me so we can coordinate.
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Yeah this whole weather shaming thing after these events just gets old. Like we are wishing for people to die. Whatever type of extreme weather you like, death and destruction could result. For instance while many of us were enjoying the 1993 Blizzard, it was causing death and destruction in Florida from a squall line and it was blamed for killing 200-300 people nationwide.
 
Arcc said:
Yeah this whole weather shaming thing after these events just gets old. Like we are wishing for people to die. Whatever type of extreme weather you like, death and destruction could result. For instance while many of us were enjoying the 1993 Blizzard, it was causing death and destruction in Florida from a squall line and it was blamed for killing 200-300 people nationwide.
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Exactly. But according to luminaries like Brick I'm evil for rooting for an end to the 5 straight months of debilitating heat and humidity here.
 
Red X I can see being a problem, I don’t see it curving like Kirk is gonna
IMG_1673.jpeg
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles north of the Azores, on
Tropical Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean,
and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the
western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of
Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for
potential development has shifted later toward late week or this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Blake
 
Looks like more and more members are pushing this into the BOC forming and pushing NE.
 
12z ICON...weak headed to FL. Not sure if it might pull up into GA.
Not sure the one in the Atlantic is going to pull up and away....GFS shows it getting caught, but not sure on this one.

icon_mslp_wind_atl_61.png
 
MichaelAndrews said:
Red X I can see being a problem, I don’t see it curving like Kirk is gonna
View attachment 152374
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles north of the Azores, on
Tropical Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean,
and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the
western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of
Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for
potential development has shifted later toward late week or this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Blake
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The one following Kirk very likely won’t recurve like Kirk is expected to. However, the good news is that going all of the way back to 1851, there’s not even one storm on record that became a TS in the MDR east of 50W after Sep 25th that made it to the CONUS. Not even one! So, if it were to be named well before 50W (very likely) I’d feel very confident that the CONUS won’t be hit.

OTOH there have been several in the MDR that became a TS 9/25-early Oct within 55-60W that hit the US. These are about the most notable:

- Matthew (2016) didn’t become a TS until almost 60W (on Sep 28th)

-Hazel (1954) formed at 58W on Oct 5

-1898: formed at 58W on 9/25

*Corrected because I accidentally left out a couple of things
 
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CMC has a TS/Cat 1 hurricane making landfall around Ft Myers and screaming east across the peninsula. GFS has a whole lot of nothing

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Yea, it's not screaming on the GFS. Dances around the gulf coast for 6 days as a weak low and then just dissipates. Not buying it.

gfs_mslp_wind_atl_44.png
 
Now this baby screams across FL.

ec-aifs_mslp_wind_atl_31.png


This one doesn't scream. It bounces around for 2 days and then lands in the same spot.

ecmwf_mslp_wind_atl_55.png
 
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jrips27 said:
Happy this doesn’t have any kind of unanimous support like pre-Helene did. Down to 10/40 odds
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Hmmmmm.....1st set of ensembles are 10 days prior to Helene.
2nd set is today for 7 days out.
I'm not sure you can make any assumptions about this next one other than it will be there.

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FB_IMG_1727700464245.jpg
 
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Most of the EPS members don't do much apparently but the few that do have a big storm it sounds like

I still don't think the environment will be as good as it was for Helene though... Not to mention the scope of Helene
 
Even if a strung out mess, we don't need even a depression wind/rain event anywhere in the SE right now.

All it will do it make recovery harder. There is no "good storm" in this scenario. It can go far off to the West of FL, GA, SC, NC, TN.
 
Ok, I stopped watching the gfs after hr 200. Trapped in the gulf bouncing around.
 
Holy Moses, check out the most recent Euro Weeklies mean prog for ACE for 10/7-13: way off the charts (5 times the 2004-23 mean for that week)! This is ~30, which is nearly double the mean for the peak week 4 weeks earlier and by far the highest ACE prog for any one week this season to date!

IMG_0374.png

Fortunately, the bulk of this very high ACE looks to be well out into the open Atlantic though not all of it:

IMG_0375.png
 
Here we go again. Consensus beginning.
ICON and GFS in almost the same spot here in the same timeframe.

icon_mslp_wind_seus_61.png
 
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