Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

[Snowfan]

 

[BHS1975]

I just hope that when this season is over people stop using AN SSTs and multi month in advance qpf forecasts as a 1:1 correlation to seasonal activity

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[lexxnchloe]

 

[GaWx]

Also, fwiw 8/24 sunspots were the highest of any August (215) since way back in Aug 1991. Although highly debatable due partially to many never hearing about it before, met Joe D’Aleo (aka “Dr. Dewpoint”: anyone else remember him? This was way before our Dewpoint Dan became famous) has recently said these things:

“We have mentioned the strong solar spike which research has shown can suppress hurricane activity.”

“One negative may be the big spike in solar in cycle 25. Most cycles have had a dual max and recent ones had the second one higher. This warms the upper atmosphere and hampers development.”

So, in theory at least, that could stabilize the atmosphere. I just learned about this a few days ago. From other things I’ve read as well as my own analysis, it’s possible that the ACE ceiling during very high sunspots could be reduced somewhat. But otherwise the correlation doesn’t appear to be strong, regardless.

 

[Henry2326]

00z ICON says the spot off Texas (btw, has been on their forecast about a week now) is gonna swirl itself into a cyclone.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

Any other year the wave at 16n 41w would be the next hurricane.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET has a strong TS form well off the US E coast Wed night that then moves NE and hits Nova Scotia this weekend:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 34.8N 70.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2024 72 36.8N 68.9W 1010 34
0000UTC 07.09.2024 84 39.2N 66.8W 1005 45
1200UTC 07.09.2024 96 41.4N 64.9W 997 43
0000UTC 08.09.2024 108 44.0N 63.3W 998 39
1200UTC 08.09.2024 120 47.1N 62.3W 1003 32
0000UTC 09.09.2024 132 49.4N 60.9W 1007 25
1200UTC 09.09.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS basically has nothing except a few weak lows forming in the offshore trof, including the one on the UKMET.

 

[GaWx]

 

[ILMRoss]

GFS basically has nothing except a few weak lows forming in the offshore trof, including the one on the UKMET.

kind of in shock about how this season has progressed

 

[lexxnchloe]

kind of in shock about how this season has progressed

Yea, when all the forecasts started to agree on a hyper-active season i was thinking 54/55 96/99 2004/05 1933, not 67/72/83/92/2013

 

[lexxnchloe]

kind of in shock about how this season has progressed

One thing that can be written in stone now. When Aug01 arrives so will the east coast trof.

 

[GaWx]

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 3–16, 2024
We believe that the most likely category for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next two weeks is below-normal (60%), with near-normal (30%) and above-normal (10%) being less likely.
(as of 3 September 2024)

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-0903.pdf

 

[Henry2326]

12 CMC.....same timing as ICON but takes it back to Mexico.

 

[NoSnowATL]

RIP

 

[jrips27]

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 3–16, 2024
We believe that the most likely category for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next two weeks is below-normal (60%), with near-normal (30%) and above-normal (10%) being less likely.
(as of 3 September 2024)

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-0903.pdf

Crazy. This season will be one of the biggest forecasting misses in modern history. Goes to show how much we still don’t understand about weather

 

[Snowfan]