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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

Thinking outside the box: I wonder if the poles are shifting and maybe causing interference in the physics of the atmosphere?
 
Usually if there’s a land falling hurricane in October it’s in the first half of October correct ? I can’t think of a lot of examples of late October and November landfalls in the US.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
Usually if there’s a land falling hurricane in October it’s in the first half of October correct ? I can’t think of a lot of examples of late October and November landfalls in the US.
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Wilma seemed somewhat late in October from what I remember going through it.

I think it hit right when we went from DST to Standard time. So we were without power and in the dark earlier.


Just googled and saw that it hit Florida on October 24.
 
BeachDMD said:
Wilma seemed somewhat late in October from what I remember going through it.

I think it hit right when we went from DST to Standard time. So we were without power and in the dark earlier.

Just googled and saw that it hit Florida on October 24.
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Yeah they happen but most of them have been the first half of the month

Sandy is about the only other one I remember(2 days before Halloween) and it wasn't technically tropical then
 
Today’s Euro Weeklies added a new week, Sep 30-Oct 6, and that week is quite active vs climo. In addition the week before is also progged to be active as has been the case on many runs.

So this run suggests that activity will pick up markedly next week though would still be below avg. After a similar subsequent week, activity is suggested to pick up substantially in late Sep and continue into early Oct vs climo.
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9/3/24 Euro Weeklies (EW) mean ACE projections as % of climo:

9/2-8: 20% per yest.’s run (meaning ACE of 3)
9/9-15: 60% (meaning ACE of 10)(climo peak week)
9/16-22: 70% (meaning ACE of 11)
9/23-29: 130% (meaning ACE of 17)(vs peak wk climo of 16)
9/30-10/6: 140% (new week)(meaning ACE of 13)

So, today’s EW progs by week are 3-10-11-17-13 meaning two most active weeks are at the end despite climo having dropped off substantially from peak by then. That would get 2024 to ~110 ACE as of Oct 6.
 
Same on 12Z EURO. Lots of weak lows forming in the offshore trof. Would be a nice winter pattern for eastern NC but of course by then the bermuda high will dominate.
 
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