Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

[lexxnchloe]

I am REALLY scared about Helene?. Should this cause problems, is to be determined. Don't let this be another Florence.

GFS agrees with EURO. Nothing

 

[SD]

Going to be a long few days if you guys are sweating this low off of the Carolina coast run to run

 

[Avalanche]

Going to be a long free days if you guys are sweating this low off of the Carolina coast run to run

We need the rain

 

[lexxnchloe]

Going to be a long few days if you guys are sweating this low off of the Carolina coast run to run

After Sept i have to wait till late july 2025 for more possible weather lol. Sweat now, relax for 10 months

 

[SD]

We need the rain

Don't even need a low off of the SE coast to get a decent amount of rain in this setup.

 

[Brent]

Going to be a long few days if you guys are sweating this low off of the Carolina coast run to run

Seriously I saw people in Houston freaking out about Francine 2 days ago and they've barely had a shower and actually have north winds and drier air right now lol

If something does threaten there will be plenty of warning but until then no reason to freak out

 

[lexxnchloe]

ICON much stronger but its the Virginia storm

0Z


Had nothing at 12z

 

[lexxnchloe]

NAM says its the charleston storm

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS brings it back a bit and its the weak NC storm

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET is its 1st run with a (S)TC forming offshore the SE; forms Sun night as TS or STS ~100 miles ESE of lower SC coast, moves WNW, and landfalls lower SC on Tue

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 31.5N 79.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2024 108 31.5N 79.1W 1008 38
0000UTC 17.09.2024 120 31.4N 79.6W 1007 30
1200UTC 17.09.2024 132 32.1N 80.3W 1009 30
0000UTC 18.09.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

 

[GaWx]

0Z JMA at 72: mischief possibly brewing for SE US (the JB “ridge over troubled water”) with big high moving into blocking position over the NE US while low forms off SE:

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: So far I’m not seeing any surface low forming off the SE coast; hopefully lexx will be around later to recap the entire run to see if something pops up later.

 

[lexxnchloe]

0Z Euro: So far I’m not seeing any surface low forming off the SE coast; hopefully lexx will be around later to recap the entire run to see if something pops up later.

Nothing

 

[NoSnowATL]

0Z Euro: So far I’m not seeing any surface low forming off the SE coast; hopefully lexx will be around later to recap the entire run to see if something pops up later.

She will post every frame of every hr on all models. Unless it doesn't head towards NC and in that case she's doesn't care.

 

[Downeastnc]

HWO this morning for MHX....at the very least it sounds like a lot of rain coming next week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the Southeast
coast this weekend. This system could become tropical early next
week, and possibly move towards the Carolinas. There is still a high
amount of uncertainty, so we recommend residents and visitors
monitor updated forecasts over the next several days.

 

[lexxnchloe]

She will post every frame of every hr on all models. Unless it doesn't head towards NC and in that case she's doesn't care.

You mean like in winter when we follow the models closely for any hint of snow in the SE while no one posts model runs of 6 inches of snow in Denver because no one cares?

 

[Henry2326]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Francine, located inland over south-central Mississippi,
and on Tropical Depression Seven, located over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of
the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development of this system is not expected while it moves
westward at around 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a bit more concentrated in
association with a small area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, the proximity of dry
air near the system is expected to limit additional development
over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected
to become even less conducive over the weekend while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

3. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development
is possible during the early part of next week while the system
drifts to the north or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

 

[NoSnowATL]

You mean like in winter when we follow the models closely for any hint of snow in the SE while no one posts model runs of 6 inches of snow in Denver because no one cares?

We don't post snow maps in winter . It doesn't snow anymore. And nobody should be following any run past 5 days winter or summer. Just let things play out before we buy KY.

 

[GaWx]

TD7 is about to be upgraded to TS Gordon.

 

[Henry2326]

Icon still has it coming in at Virginia. We will see if 2 days Over water can develop it further.

Frankly the storm in Central Atlantic is more interesting, headed due west. We will see if it gets a curve in the next few days.