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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

Sept 02 and still have the MT backward with low pressure north of CV and high pressure south so every wave simply stretches out and dies in dry stable air north of CV. CV season only lasts for so long. And even if a depression were to somehow form its up and out with this pattern

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He still thinks there will be more US landfalls. Models best start lighting up. Read the whole thing


 
lexxnchloe said:
Another one already too far north. CV season will be rather paltry with waves coming off at 20N


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The low behind the one off the African coast is also at 20N. With the wave train running a track like that and the persistent dry air over the Atlantic this season I think coastal areas of the Southeast and Gulf will have little to worry about unless things change.
 
Ben Noll says the SST's are primed for action but debby and ernesto were on the struggle bus the entire way across the ATL and the whole basin is struggling to even develop a weak depression. SST's are only important if the season has other factors aligned.



Over AFrica there is a 1001mb low that in an average season would likely develop considering its peak but its already too far north and devoid of convection in the dry stable air
 

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18z dropped the GOM low and has no survivable waves off Africa. Does show a stalled front off FLA that could develop if it can stay stalled for a few days. For peak, not much.


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Worrying what the models show 300 hours away is a futile endeavor. The gfs could t figure out Debby wasn't going all the way back to Alabama. The season is rolling forward and it's gonna do whatever it is going to do and the models won't know every minute of a 364 hour run. Sit back and watch
 
People are starting to come up with reasons why the season cant get going



More East Pac activity



That should be the ATL

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Pwats in the Atlantic are way BN again as the azores high pumps in Sal and continental air. It gets shifted west as Ernesto recurve so day 7-10 might be a better opportunity
 
SD said:
Pwats in the Atlantic are way BN again as the azores high pumps in Sal and continental air. It gets shifted west as Ernesto recurve so day 7-10 might be a better opportunity
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Do you remember hearing a lot about SAL back in the 90s/80s or even early 2000s?

It seems to be a major issue almost every year nowadays.
 
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