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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

GaWx said:
If the GFS/Euro end up verifying well, there could be as many as 4 straight Tahiti SLPs of 1019+ during Aug 19-22. I’d be very surprised if there isn’t at least one. Keep in mind that higher Tahiti pressure is favored during developing La Niña. There hasn’t been even a single day of 1019+ since 2010!


Tahiti SLP 1019+ since 1991:

1019.55: 1994 (Aug)

1019.1, 1019.44: 1996 (June)

1019.3: 1998 (Aug)

1019.28: 1999 (Aug)

1019.24: 2010 (July)

1019.44, 1019.61, 1019.78, 1019.59, 1019.14: 2010 (Sep)

1019.05: 2010 (Sep)



-So, there have been only 13 days of Tahiti SLP of 1019+ over the last 33 years with the record high being 1019.78 (Sep of 2010).

- This shows there’s been only one time when there were more than two days in a row of that (Sep of 2010). That was during the longest streak on record, 5 days.

- This shows that all were during June-Sep with a mean date of Aug. That makes sense because that’s during their winter, when sfc cold high pressures are at their highest SLP of the year.

- There is a decent correlation between high Tahiti SLP periods and an active Atlantic tropics mainly 1-3 weeks afterward. That jibes well with the idea of an active Atlantic sometime between very late this month and mid Sep.
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Does this correlate to a 2010 winter as well? If so sign me up on this TC. I doubt it, but if anyone knows how it correlates to winter, not just tropics, its you. Also where would you put your finger on the La Nina Gauge for winter 24/25 as things stand now currently. Strong, Moderate, or Weak?
 
NCSNOW said:
Does this correlate to a 2010 winter as well? If so sign me up on this TC. I doubt it, but if anyone knows how it correlates to winter, not just tropics, its you. Also where would you put your finger on the La Nina Gauge for winter 24/25 as things stand now currently. Strong, Moderate, or Weak?
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Courtesy of LC

1724097416048.png


First, this being a La Nina episode with widespread heat ridge formations in the Northern Hemisphere, we will likely see many "well above normal" temperature anomalies to the right of the Rocky Mountains and below Interstate 90. Synoptic climatology used against persistence favors an outcome like 1998 or 2007-08, which might mean unusual heat being present well into December. Then we have to wait and see if a southern branch stream branch reappears. If so, a codler approach will be called for from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley. The greatest colder impacts on ths outlook would not occur until the week before Christmas and New Year's. Texas should be routinely hot until then.
 
NCSNOW said:
Does this correlate to a 2010 winter as well? If so sign me up on this TC. I doubt it, but if anyone knows how it correlates to winter, not just tropics, its you. Also where would you put your finger on the La Nina Gauge for winter 24/25 as things stand now currently. Strong, Moderate, or Weak?
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I think it will peak as a moderate per RONI, which takes into account the record warm tropical waters. So, moderate is my best answer now but of course subject to change.
 
Bold prediction indeed




But then reposts how shear is way above normal



No hurricanes on the 18Z. There is a non tropical low roaming around. The waves continue to come off at 20N and dissipate.


1724109998003.png
 
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lexxnchloe said:
Bold prediction indeed




But then reposts how shear is way above normal



No hurricanes on the 18Z. There is a non tropical low roaming around. The waves continue to come off at 20N and dissipate.


View attachment 150188
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I'm with Danny Morris. I've been watching hurricane season for about 10 years now. It ramps up the last week of August. Thank God if it doesn't. That would be a pleasant fall.
 
Rain Cold said:
Do you remember hearing a lot about SAL back in the 90s/80s or even early 2000s?

It seems to be a major issue almost every year nowadays.
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Not to the degree we have recently. I can't find a lot of old SAL.maps for reference so it's all off of memory anyway. I do think these massive hurricane seasons getting projected and using total precip anoms from seasonal models sets the expectations that we will have an active storm everyday so the negating factors get amplified to be more than what is normal.
 
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Peak season and the pre-season numbers are getting more more ridiculous. MDR 100% encased in desert air. GFS did manage a Debbie redo but for peak way below avg activity.




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JB says the EURO has a super duper wave train. Doesnt matter though. They can be 940mb lows in Africa and as long as they come off at 20N they will choke on dust. As far as 05/20 as analogs thats laughable at this point


 
lexxnchloe said:
CSU 2 week forecast

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CSU outlook for next 2 weeks: most likely near normal with activity more concentrated in 2nd week as one would expect based on models; no surprises in this. They did well with their prior 2 week fcast, which verified mainly due to Ernesto with its favoring of above avg activity

12Z GEFS: still rather active for first few days of Sept.
 
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Euro weeklies mean ACE forecast update vs norm last 7 days (newest far right, which is 0Z of Tue):

8/26-9/1: 50%/60%/50%/50%/50%/30%/20%; Norm 14
9/2-8: 110%/110%/120%/100%/110%/70%/70%; norm 15
9/9-15: 90%/80%/90%/80%/100%/80%/90%; norm 16
9/16-22: 90%; norm 13

So, in today’s Euro Weeklies update regarding the 3 weeks I’ve been following, yesterday’s progged sharp mean ACE drop from 40 to 28 was maintained today. Also, todays added a new week (9/16-22) with a mean of 12 ACE.

Thus, today’s Euro Weeklies mean ACE prediction for the 4 week period 8/26-9/22 is 40. This 40 compares to the 1991-2020 avg of 58. So, mean ACE prediction is significantly below the 1991-2020 avg mainly due to weeks 1-2 fwiw.
Thoughts?

ECMWF | Charts

charts.ecmwf.int charts.ecmwf.int
 
GaWx said:
Euro weeklies mean ACE forecast update vs norm last 7 days (newest far right, which is 0Z of Tue):

8/26-9/1: 50%/60%/50%/50%/50%/30%/20%; Norm 14
9/2-8: 110%/110%/120%/100%/110%/70%/70%; norm 15
9/9-15: 90%/80%/90%/80%/100%/80%/90%; norm 16
9/16-22: 90%; norm 13

So, in today’s Euro Weeklies update regarding the 3 weeks I’ve been following, yesterday’s progged sharp mean ACE drop from 40 to 28 was maintained today. Also, todays added a new week (9/16-22) with a mean of 12 ACE.

Thus, today’s Euro Weeklies mean ACE prediction for the 4 week period 8/26-9/22 is 40. This 40 compares to the 1991-2020 avg of 58. So, mean ACE prediction is significantly below the 1991-2020 avg mainly due to weeks 1-2 fwiw.
Thoughts?

ECMWF | Charts

charts.ecmwf.int charts.ecmwf.int
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Even those numbers sound too high. The MDR is shut down for the season so any storms will have to come from either nontropical origins(no sign of that this season) or somehow a dry wave somehow manages to develop. Those will be few and far between. I think we will also have an early shutdown of the season. Time to wait till july 25 2025 for possible weather. Its sad to see Knabb on TWC still trying to seel that the season is going to snap to life after a week. He can see the same things we see but of course he is under pressure to keep ratings up.

18Z GFS ends with the MT even more upside down with waves coming off at 23N. Debby part2 dropped. Ominous showers in the GOM

1724196539503.png

This may be a record. The next wave may be coming off Africa at 27N


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Brent said:
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At 240 the 0Z EURO shows not even a weak depression. It does show a wave that again comes off too far north and of course isnt going to develop. 0Z GFS is dead thru sept 06 now.

1724224412248.png





As long as the MT is upside down no wave is going to develop coming off at 20N. Until that changes the season hinges on stalled fronts and upper lows. We are blowing thru the season peak.
 
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GFS totally dead. Anoher wave coming off at 20N. I keep reading they are going to start coming off further south. December?


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Its Climate Change Fault! ( JK) . Im in Gawx camp. As much as I get obsessed with weather of all types, ( minus Heat/drought). LF Canes I'd prefer not to see. Unlike a blizzard, you wrap up if power goes out and it melts away a few days latter. Flood waters getting into folks houses is a no bueno and way to costly.
 
NCSNOW said:
Its Climate Change Fault! ( JK) . Im in Gawx camp. As much as I get obsessed with weather of all types, ( minus Heat/drought). LF Canes I'd prefer not to see. Unlike a blizzard, you wrap up if power goes out and it melts away a few days latter. Flood waters getting into folks houses is a no bueno and way to costly.
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Winter weather by far takes a larger human toll and costs billions a year
 
wxman57 sticks another dagger in the season

wxman57 » Wed Aug 21, 2024 7:34 am

"I found a comparison between this time in 2023 vs. now using the NHC 7-day outlook graphic so I made my own. Quite a difference. After August 19 in 2023, there were 3 storms that formed in late August, 6 in September and 2 in October. That's 11 named storms after August 19th. This year, nothing. Unlikely we'll see any additional storms in August and early September is looking dead, too. We could reach the peak of the season (Sept 10) with only 5-6 named storms. I love it! Days off this time of year are a luxury.

I read Klotzbach's season update but I think something is being missed. Warm water - check. Low wind shear - maybe. As for a favorable environment - nope. Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are dominated by dry, sinking air. It doesn't matter how warm the water is. If the atmosphere isn't favorable then hurricanes struggle to develop. I'm thinking my revised numbers of 18/8/4 may be too high. I'm just hoping for the current pattern to continue and any additional storms to stay out to sea. Perhaps those global models indicating no development are correct. Looking for an ensemble member somewhere to indicate development? Ha!"
 
Shaggy said:
Car accidents,heart attacks from shoveling snow and hundreds of thousands of injuries from slipping on snow and ice cause massive amounts of problems.
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Hurricanes cost per year- around 1B over 10k deaths
winter weather per year- 750M- about 19k deaths since 1979
per National Center of Environment information.
 
1980-2022
Tropical cyclones have caused the most damage ($1,333.6 billion) and have the highest average event cost ($22.2 billion per event). Drought ($327.7 billion), severe storms ($383.7 billion), and inland flooding ($177.9 billion) have also caused considerable damage based on the list of billion-dollar events.

Severe storms have caused the highest number of billion-dollar disaster events (163), but they have the lowest average event cost ($2.4 billion). Tropical cyclones and flooding represent the second and third most frequent event types (60 and 37), respectively. Tropical cyclones are responsible for the highest number of deaths (6,890), followed by drought/heatwave events (4,275) and severe storms (1,982).


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"Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons," Klotzbach said in the news release. "This highlights the somewhat higher level of confidence that exists with this outlook relative to our typical early August forecast."

The team at CSU predicts that the 2024 hurricane activity will be about 190% of the average season from 1991-2020.

"By comparison, 2023's hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season," CSU said.

Oops
 
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