lexxnchloe
Member
You have a point. In the midst of a predicted hyper active season they show nothing thru sept 08
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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot
- Thread starter SD
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lexxnchloe
Member
I doubt we will ever see the MDR look like this in my lifetime, not to mention 1995 when there were 5 lined up in the MDR. All the forecasts are busting. Andy Hazelton is the latest to throw in the towel as he is now falling back on the tried and true thing you say when its a dead season "it only takes 1"
Talking in the past tense about the season and no model shows this developing but who knows
Talking in the past tense about the season and no model shows this developing but who knows
lexxnchloe
Member
In even a dead season you might expect a set up like this off FLA to develop on sept 01 but this season is so hostile everywhere it wont
Hard to belive this is the ATL on AUG23 in a season that was supposed to be hyper-active. Totally bone dry and not even ad identifiable wave. Even if the switch flipper turns the switch to "on" right now it will take awhile for even a strong wave to show up.
Hard to belive this is the ATL on AUG23 in a season that was supposed to be hyper-active. Totally bone dry and not even ad identifiable wave. Even if the switch flipper turns the switch to "on" right now it will take awhile for even a strong wave to show up.
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS is trying
lexxnchloe
Member
I sure hope so but this is the gfs thru sept 07. Not a single identifiable wave. The CV season only lasts so long and for it to not even start by sept 07 isnt good. For the rest of the season the best analogs i can think of are 67/72/83/92(without Andrew of course)
lexxnchloe
Member
Here is the problem that doesnt show a single sign of changing and quite frankly its too late anyway. Here comes another uesless wave and as it gets ready to come of Africa it stretches out and will come off bone dry at 20N. Its just too late now. Even if the MDR manages to produce a CV storm it will be so late that a recurve is 100% guaranteed. A Cane at 15n 50W on OCT 01amounts to nothing
lexxnchloe
Member
As far as Rick Knabb goes he keeps saying once the East Pac is dead the ATL will explode. No ATL explosion
Henry2326
Member
I think most of us who have experienced the trauma of strong hurricanes, disagree with your choice of words. The current environment is not "a problem". It is a blessing for millions of people who could lose their homes, their jobs, and/or their lives. Great if it's too late. Hope we never see another cane, but my expectations are that we will and it could be brutal. Humans have not been successful at forecasting large weather events. They surprise us time and time again.
This thread is like reading the winter thread around Christmas
Brent
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
Not enough fake hurricanes in the GOM. We pass
lexxnchloe
Member
Lets see if the 18 GFS shows anything
lexxnchloe
Member
Its getting laughable at this point. Another meaningless TS strength wave coming off at 25N and another right behind it. I hope everyones seasona; forecast for next season is 4/1/0
lexxnchloe
Member
I wonder if Knabb is still yapping about the ATL getting ready to explode.
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lexxnchloe
Member
Amazing. Even in an average season you see this off FLA the warning flags go off. But it isnt going to develop.
While Morris says the ITCZ is displaced to the N, Bernie Rayno at Accuweather today in the updated tropical outlook said the exact opposite: it is displaced to the S at 10N instead of clump’s 15N. You can’t make this stuff up.
Regarding my above post, check out this link to Bernie Rayno saying the exact opposite of what Danny Morris said: go to 2:55-3:10 and hear him say the ITCZ is at 10N instead of the normal 15N (Danny had said it was N displaced):
Where do you get that idea from? Please don’t group everyone together. I’d be perfectly content if no more form despite that being next to impossible. Following the tropics closely isn’t the same thing as rooting for them. Being a weather enthusiast/hobbyist isn’t the same as rooting for them. It’s obvious who definitely wants them, including right in their backyard.
lumbeeman
Member
Sure seems like some are and that is quite disturbing.
Brent
Member
Just to be clear I'm not but I've been following hurricanes since before the internet and I know there will be hurricanes before it's over like it's not going to just end at Ernesto with the way it started as much as most of us want it to. I've said way earlier in this thread also I would love if the season busted because we have enough problems already
Even though them openly rooting for Hs (including strong ones) to come right to them is so opposite of my and others’ thinking and thus seems weird, they of course have the right to do so.
I think people are used to seeing storms around this time of year imho.
Brent
Member
I mean 2022 had nothing in August too and Ian would strike by October(deadliest hurricane in Florida since 1935)
It's not completely unheard of
No one is hoping for a storm that forms with death and destruction. Just laughable those who are claiming the season is dead based off of 300 hour models!
lexxnchloe
Member
This really shouldnt need to be said yet again. Nothing i want, you want GaWx wants or anyone else wants has anything whatsoever to do with what happens. And yes, i was hoping CSU would be right. If 5 cat 5's hit the GOM coast Im not going to be sitting here in tears moaning how me, and me alone caused it to happen by wanting an active season. Yes it would be horrible if that happens but if it does it does, if it doesnt it doesnt. One other thing to consider. Lets say the rest of the season is 3/1/0. Who is to say or know because the ATL was dead there was a massive, or several massive weather disasters on others parts of the globe. Take Hurricane Iniki in 1992. Regardless of Andrew what if the ATL that year had 15/9/4. Almost certainly the overall pattern would have been far different and there would have been no Iniki. What if the 1970 cane season had 20/10/5 instead of 14/7/2. Almost certainly the overall weather patter would have been far different and 300,000 wouldnt have died in Bangladesh.
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lexxnchloe
Member
Danny Morris has it right. What is happening is the ITCZ is oriented from SW off the Africa coast to NW over Africa.
We shouldn't be focused so much on the MDR right now. A homegrown storm will probably form next month after some of these fronts get further south and stall. We pretty much have 60 days.
lexxnchloe
Member
You would certainly think so.
Oops!
Avalanche
Member
Why is this in the tropical thread? This happens year round!! Lol
The pattern across the GOM is probably going to get pretty unsettled next week. Not sure if anything ever spins up but it may at least lead to a wetter pattern late next week/weekend/early the following week
lexxnchloe
Member
Its going to be a Sept to remember
Lord this trap of the precip anoms are AN so there must be hurricanes take its getting painful the whole region was AN in July and 0 hurricanes
Downeastnc
Member
I dont think anyone wishes for storms to happen or hit, but they are going to....I have been through a lot of storms, luckily nothing too severe, I certainly do not want anything strong to come in as a property owner etc... but what I want matters little to what is going to happen. I am a wind junkie though so I have been on the porch for all of them....
Downeastnc
Member
The ensembles have been getting a few hits...the only thing I know for sure is that it wont take much for the season to go nuts and things change fast down there. All it takes is for a few waves to bring moisture off the coast and make it survivable for a system to form which will then do its part to juice things up etc...also lately Oct is the new Sept so with ocean temps so high the season could easily drag into Nov....
weather bubba
Member
I think that will be the area to watch for the next couple of weeks at least with the Atlantic being out of business until the upper air patterns start pushing the waves that come off Africa more east to west rather than southeast to northwest. There is still plenty of dry air to contend with in the Atlantic too.
Yep. Yesterdays day’s Euro Weeklies vs normal ACE
8/26-9/1: 10%; Norm 14
9/2-8: 40%; norm 15
9/9-15: 70%; norm 16
9/16-22: 90%; norm 13
ECMWF | Charts
So, the progged ACE mean is 30. This is significantly below the 1991-2020 avg of 58. Over 75% of this deficit is due to weeks 1-2. The point is that despite wet Euro Weekly maps, they at the same time have much BN ACE.
JB yesterday showed these low ACE maps and said while laughing: “My numbers are just… they’re shot….I’m talking about the impact…This is just wild stuff. 50% of the normal ACE at the height of the season. Holy smokes. Now do I believe it? No, not really. But maybe it’s going to happen. There’s still going to be a lot of high impact forecasted but the numbers gotta come down”
lexxnchloe
Member
We are now down to the oft said cliche when the season is dead. It only takes 1Yep. Yesterdays day’s Euro Weeklies vs normal ACE
8/26-9/1: 10%; Norm 14
9/2-8: 40%; norm 15
9/9-15: 70%; norm 16
9/16-22: 90%; norm 13
ECMWF | Charts
charts.ecmwf.int
So, the progged ACE mean is 30. This is significantly below the 1991-2020 avg of 58. Over 75% of this deficit is due to weeks 1-2. The point is that despite wet Euro Weekly maps, they at the same time have much BN ACE.
JB yesterday showed these low ACE maps and said while laughing: “My numbers are just… they’re shot….I’m talking about the impact…This is just wild stuff. 50% of the normal ACE at the height of the season. Holy smokes. Now do I believe it? No, not really. But maybe it’s going to happen. There’s still going to be a lot of high impact forecasted but the numbers gotta come down”
And right on cue i checked if JB had tweeted again and now numbers mean nothing, it only takes 1
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