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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

Watching what the gfs does in the long range with the strong wave leaving Africa should make anyone question its long term projections. Brings the wave off to the CV then turns it around and Fujiwara effects its almost all the way back to landfall on Africa
 
lexxnchloe said:
Of course all this could go away tonite but the set-up would make it hard for a storm to recurve. Also with heavy rain before a possible hurricane flooding would be an issue. Its also possible a separate system might develop off the SE coast.

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So , is the season dead or no?
 
Oh well, GFS finds a way to recurve it east of bermuda in what should have a perfect pattern. Its also a "one off" with a dead ATL once again. no conga line because it goes so far east it kills any chance of another meaningful wave. Only interesting thing on the GFS is a weak low in the NE Gom.
Henry2326 said:
That one member has a similar path to Hugo.

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GFS says its another ernie, east, up and out. The GOM low amounts to nothing because of course it just heads over land and rains. No conga line of waves because of the recurver. Not much for peak


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I always look past the storm on the map to see is things really are favorable. They arent, The ATL looks exactly like it did after Deb and ernie



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Lemon.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
this system by this weekend into early next week as it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
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For some reason I have this saved. If anything develops and threatens SC/NC it’s a reminder of just how bad even a weaker storm would be actually coming ashore now with so much development.
 

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ChrisAMB said:
For some reason I have this saved. If anything develops and threatens SC/NC it’s a reminder of just how bad even a weaker storm would be actually coming ashore now with so much development.
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Another storm like this would cause 2-3 times the amount of damage Hugo did. The insurance industry would be in trouble in both states.
I'm not sure how much the Charleston area has grown, but the Charlotte metro and the surrounding counties are MUCH more developed now.
 
JHS said:
Another storm like this would cause 2-3 times the amount of damage Hugo did. The insurance industry would be in trouble in both states.
I'm not sure how much the Charleston area has grown, but the Charlotte metro and the surrounding counties are MUCH more developed now.
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Also look at news footage of Horry and Georgetown counties. Not just the beaches but well into the Pee Dee. The amount of destruction caused by 70-80mph winds was insane. A direct hit by a Cat 2 or Cat 3? Crazy.
 
ChrisAMB said:
Also look at news footage of Horry and Georgetown counties. Not just the beaches but well into the Pee Dee. The amount of destruction caused by 70-80mph winds was insane. A direct hit by a Cat 2 or Cat 3? Crazy.
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Charlotte also took a major blow with Hugo with 70-80 mph winds up there. The worst thing now for this state would be another storm like Hugo to come in about 30 miles or so southwest of Charleston putting them in the northeast quadrant. The city did not get the worst of Hugo back then. The was farther northeast in Charleston and into Georgetown County.
 
JHS said:
Charlotte also took a major blow with Hugo with 70-80 mph winds up there. The worst thing now for this state would be another storm like Hugo to come in about 30 miles or so southwest of Charleston putting them in the northeast quadrant. The city did not get the worst of Hugo back then. The was farther northeast in Charleston and into Georgetown County.
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Doesn’t even need to be a Hugo. A Cat 2 would upend the entire coastal economy.

Folks just need be mindful when “cheering” on these storms to develop. Yes they’re interesting to track and watch but the potential pattern setting up is nerve wracking if you live within 50 miles of the coast.
 
ChrisAMB said:
Doesn’t even need to be a Hugo. A Cat 2 would upend the entire coastal economy.

Folks just need be mindful when “cheering” on these storms to develop. Yes they’re interesting to track and watch but the potential pattern setting up is nerve wracking if you live within 50 miles of the coast.
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Agreed and a fast-moving cat 2 would still cause problems well inland too, along with the coast. SC is overdue for another major hit too, meaning a Cat 3 or higher. With just a few changes, Irma and Ian could have both came into SC as majors.
 
ChrisAMB said:
Doesn’t even need to be a Hugo. A Cat 2 would upend the entire coastal economy.

Folks just need be mindful when “cheering” on these storms to develop. Yes they’re interesting to track and watch but the potential pattern setting up is nerve wracking if you live within 50 miles of the coast.
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GFS says east of Bermuda at 18Z. Here is the ICON.


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Totally gone thru 192 on GFS. Now 228 and its not going to develop it where it was at 18Z. Lets see if it waits further west

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0Z CMC: more developed than 12Z with a weak sfc low skirting N coast of Hispaniola into far SE Bahamas. Dangerous track.
 
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