• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

snowc said:
First X may be placed in this area tonight!

View attachment 150372
Click to expand...
Right on the dot!
two_atl_7d0.png

An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
this system this weekend into early next week as it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent
 
snowc said:
Right on the dot!
two_atl_7d0.png

An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
this system this weekend into early next week as it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent
Click to expand...
GFS has totally dropped the storm the Nhc is referencing but develops another one that recurves much further east than num 1 did, so no threats to anyone this run.
 
I agree. I'm still correcting damage from Hurricane Florence. No the house didn't blow down, but constant storms regardless of strenght take there toll. Roofs wear out faster. Excessive rain rots wood. It's hard to keep up with on the coast. IMO there is no fool proof system in house construction that can last in this environment. So I'm glad this season is a nothing burger.
 
Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”:

- Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline.

- Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

Any thoughts?
 
ICON continues to hang tough. 1 place of interest is the west GOM. Will other models pick up a possible storm? Here is the satellite picture. The yellow area in the ATL also is more concentrated



1724817055628.png




1724817110201.png
 
two_atl_7d0.png

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of
Bermuda is producing a small area of disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are
expected to limit additional development of this system during the
next day or so while the low moves northward to north-northeastward
at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
the system this weekend into early next week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
 
GaWx said:
1. So, the ICON is still developing the current NHC MDR lemon.

2. The 12Z Crazy Uncle has a H from this after having nothing the prior two runs and a TS in the SE Bahamas three runs ago:

View attachment 150461
Click to expand...




The gfs does its best to get something going but its not quite there

240

1724866529483.png



282 just cant organize in a super favorable spot. Will the EURO go toward the GFS or CMC?



1724866643992.png
 
From the lemon, here’s some more 12Z:
1. 20% (6) of GEFS members have a H with 3 of those hitting or threatening the NE Caribbean.

2. UKMET: no TC

3. Euro: actually has something from this but not obvious. It has a weak sfc low in W Car at 240. So, well south due to staying weak til then.
Edit: The Control then goes from there into the NC Gulf as a strengthening TS that recurves.
Edit: EPS has a good number of members that are similar to the Control implying there could be a threat to the US gulf coast ~9/9-11.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
From the lemon, here’s some more 12Z:
1. 20% (6) of GEFS members have a H with 3 of those hitting or threatening the NE Caribbean.

2. UKMET: no TC

3. Euro: actually has something from this but not obvious. It has a weak sfc low in W Car at 240. So, well south due to staying weak til then.
Edit: The Control then goes from there into the NC Gulf as a strengthening TS that recurves.
Edit: EPS has a good number of members that are similar to the Control implying there could be a threat to the US gulf coast ~9/9-11.
Click to expand...
1724871493703.png
 
Shaggy said:
Nobody mentioning the 18z gefs? This is a 3 run trend. @GaHow many members jumped on board at 18z?

View attachment 150477
Click to expand...

Per my eyeballs, I count at least 13 of the 31 GEFS members on TT with a TC. And based on more eyeballing, this looks like the most active from the current lemon since the 18Z two days ago. I wouldn’t read too much into this though as it could just be a one off run. Let’s see what 0Z shows.
 
Wow, this is bizarre! To review, 23 straight EC-AIFS runs from 6Z 8/19 through 18Z 8/24 had TCG ~9/2 near the Leewards. Then the next 15 had nothing (not even a weak sfc low) anywhere around there. Now all of the sudden, the 18Z 8/28 EC-AIFS has a weak sfc low (though not a TC) that forms on 9/2 near the central Lesser Antilles (so a little S of those 23 runs).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top