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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

The worst of this misses New Orleans on this run it looks like but slams Mobile Al and the Fla panhandle. Of course, it will be totally different at 0Z and the system may not even form at all.
 
SD said:
This upcoming pattern is going to be a problem if anything develops. Stronger development or a faster earlier motion could get it OTS but anything that struggles along or is slower will likely get pushed into the Carribbean then be pulled north either side of FL
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That’s what I’m noticing. You can see tell that we’re going into a pattern over the lower 48 that would draw any well developed storm in the western Caribbean north, most likely into the eastern GOM.
 
JHS said:
The worst of this misses New Orleans on this run it looks like but slams Mobile Al and the Fla panhandle. Of course, it will be totally different at 0Z and the system may not even form at all.
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You’re correct that there might not be a storm, but if one does form, with the overall pattern, a path towards the coastline between the New Orleans and Appalachicola would be what to expect
 
Chazwin said:
You’re correct that there might not be a storm, but if one does form, with the overall pattern, a path towards the coastline between the New Orleans and Appalachicola would be what to expect
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That's true enough. Where it would go once inland would be interesting though. I'm not sure it would go straight north. I would look for it to turn northeast and track somewhere between where Ivan and Frances went in 2004. We will know much more when and IF the system actually forms.
 
Lemon for the wave that is emerging off the coast of Africa.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave just emerging off the coast of Africa is
currently associated with an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
through the middle portion of next week as it moves slowly to the
west-northwest or northwest over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
 
two_atl_7d0 (1).png

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms that have become a
little more concentrated near its axis. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph, approaching the Lesser Antilles. The
system is then forecast to continue moving westward to
west-northwestward across portions of the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave just emerging off the coast of Africa is
currently associated with an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
through the middle portion of next week as it moves slowly to the
west-northwest or northwest over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percen
 
Today’s Euro Weeklies update: significantly more active than run from 2 days back

9/2-8: 60%/norm 15/ACE =9 (was 6 two days ago)
9/9-15: 80%/norm 16/ACE = 13 (was 8 two days ago)
9/16-22: 80%/norm 13/ACE = 10 (was 9 two days ago)
9/23-29: 150%/norm 10/ACE = 15 (was 12 two days ago)

-So, the 4 week period has risen from two days ago’s 35 (65% of normal) to 47 today (87% of normal).

-It not only has incorporated anticipated increased near term activity, but has also increased week 4

-Since week 4 was first released two runs ago, it has been projected to be the busiest week of the 4 despite it having significantly lower normal ACE.

-Typically, a reversion to the mean is stronger further out in time. So, a forecast for a whopping 150% of normal way out in week 4 is quite a strong signal that late Sept. is liable to be nasty. Very active wouldn’t necessarily mean high land impacts if we’re lucky, however.
 
Gone on the CMC and a weak low that buries itself in the YUC on GFS. Basically nothing for peak season
 
0Z UKMET: another run with no TC (goes out to 168)
 
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The reason why it is "baffling" is because you're anxiously looking at every model run this far out.

The guidance is more than obviously telling us there will be a storm to keep tabs on in the future.

Using the modeling as guidance, we should logically decide if whatever reason it's not developing it is plausible or not. The modeling is obviously struggling with something that we, as humans, should look into.

The discussion here should be: why are the same models trying to lose the storm. What is the difference vs the stronger solutions. What is the most likely outcome?
 
Henry2326 said:
View attachment 150548

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms that have become a
little more concentrated near its axis. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph, approaching the Lesser Antilles. The
system is then forecast to continue moving westward to
west-northwestward across portions of the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave just emerging off the coast of Africa is
currently associated with an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
through the middle portion of next week as it moves slowly to the
west-northwest or northwest over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percen
Click to expand...
And it begins... Hurricane Season is now waking up.
 
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