lumbeeman
Member
Sure seems like some are and that is quite disturbing.
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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
Just to be clear I'm not but I've been following hurricanes since before the internet and I know there will be hurricanes before it's over like it's not going to just end at Ernesto with the way it started as much as most of us want it to. I've said way earlier in this thread also I would love if the season busted because we have enough problems already
Even though them openly rooting for Hs (including strong ones) to come right to them is so opposite of my and others’ thinking and thus seems weird, they of course have the right to do so.
I think people are used to seeing storms around this time of year imho.
Brent
Member
I mean 2022 had nothing in August too and Ian would strike by October(deadliest hurricane in Florida since 1935)
It's not completely unheard of
jeremyt
Member
No one is hoping for a storm that forms with death and destruction. Just laughable those who are claiming the season is dead based off of 300 hour models!
lexxnchloe
Member
This really shouldnt need to be said yet again. Nothing i want, you want GaWx wants or anyone else wants has anything whatsoever to do with what happens. And yes, i was hoping CSU would be right. If 5 cat 5's hit the GOM coast Im not going to be sitting here in tears moaning how me, and me alone caused it to happen by wanting an active season. Yes it would be horrible if that happens but if it does it does, if it doesnt it doesnt. One other thing to consider. Lets say the rest of the season is 3/1/0. Who is to say or know because the ATL was dead there was a massive, or several massive weather disasters on others parts of the globe. Take Hurricane Iniki in 1992. Regardless of Andrew what if the ATL that year had 15/9/4. Almost certainly the overall pattern would have been far different and there would have been no Iniki. What if the 1970 cane season had 20/10/5 instead of 14/7/2. Almost certainly the overall weather patter would have been far different and 300,000 wouldnt have died in Bangladesh.
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lexxnchloe
Member
Danny Morris has it right. What is happening is the ITCZ is oriented from SW off the Africa coast to NW over Africa.
We shouldn't be focused so much on the MDR right now. A homegrown storm will probably form next month after some of these fronts get further south and stall. We pretty much have 60 days.
lexxnchloe
Member
You would certainly think so.
Oops!
Avalanche
Member
Why is this in the tropical thread? This happens year round!! Lol
The pattern across the GOM is probably going to get pretty unsettled next week. Not sure if anything ever spins up but it may at least lead to a wetter pattern late next week/weekend/early the following week
lexxnchloe
Member
Its going to be a Sept to remember
Lord this trap of the precip anoms are AN so there must be hurricanes take its getting painful the whole region was AN in July and 0 hurricanes
Downeastnc
Member
I dont think anyone wishes for storms to happen or hit, but they are going to....I have been through a lot of storms, luckily nothing too severe, I certainly do not want anything strong to come in as a property owner etc... but what I want matters little to what is going to happen. I am a wind junkie though so I have been on the porch for all of them....
Downeastnc
Member
The ensembles have been getting a few hits...the only thing I know for sure is that it wont take much for the season to go nuts and things change fast down there. All it takes is for a few waves to bring moisture off the coast and make it survivable for a system to form which will then do its part to juice things up etc...also lately Oct is the new Sept so with ocean temps so high the season could easily drag into Nov....
weather bubba
Member
I think that will be the area to watch for the next couple of weeks at least with the Atlantic being out of business until the upper air patterns start pushing the waves that come off Africa more east to west rather than southeast to northwest. There is still plenty of dry air to contend with in the Atlantic too.
Yep. Yesterdays day’s Euro Weeklies vs normal ACE
8/26-9/1: 10%; Norm 14
9/2-8: 40%; norm 15
9/9-15: 70%; norm 16
9/16-22: 90%; norm 13
ECMWF | Charts
So, the progged ACE mean is 30. This is significantly below the 1991-2020 avg of 58. Over 75% of this deficit is due to weeks 1-2. The point is that despite wet Euro Weekly maps, they at the same time have much BN ACE.
JB yesterday showed these low ACE maps and said while laughing: “My numbers are just… they’re shot….I’m talking about the impact…This is just wild stuff. 50% of the normal ACE at the height of the season. Holy smokes. Now do I believe it? No, not really. But maybe it’s going to happen. There’s still going to be a lot of high impact forecasted but the numbers gotta come down”
lexxnchloe
Member
We are now down to the oft said cliche when the season is dead. It only takes 1Yep. Yesterdays day’s Euro Weeklies vs normal ACE
8/26-9/1: 10%; Norm 14
9/2-8: 40%; norm 15
9/9-15: 70%; norm 16
9/16-22: 90%; norm 13
ECMWF | Charts
charts.ecmwf.int
So, the progged ACE mean is 30. This is significantly below the 1991-2020 avg of 58. Over 75% of this deficit is due to weeks 1-2. The point is that despite wet Euro Weekly maps, they at the same time have much BN ACE.
JB yesterday showed these low ACE maps and said while laughing: “My numbers are just… they’re shot….I’m talking about the impact…This is just wild stuff. 50% of the normal ACE at the height of the season. Holy smokes. Now do I believe it? No, not really. But maybe it’s going to happen. There’s still going to be a lot of high impact forecasted but the numbers gotta come down”
And right on cue i checked if JB had tweeted again and now numbers mean nothing, it only takes 1
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