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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

No storms, no rumors of storms on 18GFS thru peak day. There will be some interesting write ups on what went wrong starting in Oct. 5/3/1 the first half of the season and lets assume the horrid conditions let up a little and we manage another 5/3/1 explosion after sept10 10/6/2 will go down as the all time seasonal bust in forecasting history. Where oh where did my tropical season go?

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All last week Rick Knabb was yapping about when the East Pac went dead the ATL would explode. Will be interesting to see what he says tomorrow. What he fails to say is that in dead seasons its not uncommon at all for the favorable conditions to just skip the ATL.

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lexxnchloe said:
All last week Rick Knabb was yapping about when the East Pac went dead the ATL would explode. Will be interesting to see what he says tomorrow. What he fails to say is that in dead seasons its not uncommon at all for the favorable conditions to just skip the ATL.

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I doubt he’s going to say anything based on hr 384 of the GFS. Obviously it thankfully is looking like the huge numbers that were put out in seasonal forecast are less and less likely to come to fruition. However to I find just as less likely that there will be no storms in the next 2-3 weeks.
 
Chazwin said:
I doubt he’s going to say anything based on hr 384 of the GFS. Obviously it thankfully is looking like the huge numbers that were put out in seasonal forecast are less and less likely to come to fruition. However to I find just as less likely that there will be no storms in the next 2-3 weeks.
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But he said many times last week when the east pac went dead the ATL would explode. I simply posted a map of a dead east pac. And yes, it would be rather shocking if even in the deadest of dead seasons a weak quikly dissipating storm wouldnt form between aug 20 and sep 10
 
ICON continues to show sparks


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Will the GFS and EURO finally join the Icon TONITE?

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I can't remember the year but it was a slow and the it's a dead season talk was rampant until we had 7 named storms in September.
 
If anyone learns anything tracking canes it should be that anything over 5-7 days in the models needs to be taken with a grain of salt, watching ensembles and not op runs is what we should focus on....the ensembles say we will have a storm in the next 5-7 days....at this point its way more likely we see 12 storms in Sept and we see 4 storms in Sept

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ILMRoss said:
hurricanes to form in the atlantic in september, more at 11
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1. The 3 main 0Z ensembles as well as 6Z GEFS agree that the highest concentration of members with a TCG is in the MDR 45-60W between 8/31 and 9/3. Overall concentration looks a bit higher vs most earlier runs. This is pretty close to when/where 23 AI-Euro runs in a row had TCG as well as TCGs on recent ICON runs. Chances seem pretty good for the next TCG during the first few days of Sept. even though the AI-Euro ironically abandoned its near Leeward Island TCG two days ago. If so when considering the near record warmth in many parts of the W basin, that would have the potential to be a big ACE producer. This would bear watching as it could threaten the CONUS.

2. I believe that this season will end up backloaded as well as concentrated in the W part of the basin due to less favorable conditions in the E basin due to a variety of reasons, some unknown.
 
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Thanks. Regarding this AEW on the other 12Z models:

1. GEFS: active like 6Z with this lead wave along with some members developing the followup MDR wave.

2. CMC: has a weak reflection of this same AEW at the surface (stronger than 0Z run) that moves WNW to S Bahamas at 240.

3. UKMET: no TCG

6. Euro: not out yet

Edit: That 12Z GFS H is from the same AEW as the main one discussed in recent posts.
 
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