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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

lexxnchloe said:
GFS has a weak storm that takes up residence in the west GOM from 192 till the end of the run
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I’m talking about what appears to be a weak circulation in the NW Gulf now that the ICON has been developing for many runs in a row.
 
Watching the 6z and 12z gfs run for this potential gulf storm, tells me a front will pick it up in the western gulf and swing it NNE towards eastern gulf. It’s becoming little obvious that could happen.
 
Looks like we will have to wait anther 2 weeks






Andy says we have to wait 2 weeks more and this is the ATL in 16 days


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accu35 said:
Watching the 6z and 12z gfs run for this potential gulf storm, tells me a front will pick it up in the western gulf and swing it NNE towards eastern gulf. It’s becoming little obvious that could happen.
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To your point with a front half-way thru the GOM you would think no way this 1003MB low will bury itself into central america. Lets see


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And its buried

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At least the ICON is trying. 5 areas in a normal season that could become a storm

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Henry2326 said:
It ain't over until it's over. Matthew did this in 2016 last week of Sept into Oct.

View attachment 150646

And the season looked as good as it looks now.
View attachment 150647
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I’d love for it to be over, but realize that’s just an unrealistic dream. I know about Matthew of 2016, which required all to evacuate. That was the worst hit in this area since David of 1979. What a mess!
 
There is also the matter of increased amplification and separations between the heat ridge complex. Cold fronts in an emergent -ENSO are not supposed to get as far south as Interstate 20 during the summer. Yet, that has happened repeatedly in the month just past, and is already shown on synoptic charts on Labor Day! If something tropical does get organized and gets to the left of the suppressed Bermuda High, the most likely track scenario would involve the Gulf Coast between Matagorda TX and Pensacola FL. The ridging in the +PNA position would afford more digging of shortwaves through the Great Plains , affording the chance of a northward recurvature of the tropical system and linkage with a cold front, much like what has happened to Beryl. Only this time, the chance exists for a stronger storm. We will not know if the Lone Star State or the Deep South will be in play until probably the 12z model runs on September 4. Just know that the potential is there. Besides, there are more disturbances in the African "conga line" which may develop, as we are entering peak hurricane season. And we still have three months before we are (probably) out of harm's way. I might also warn that climatology argues strongly for an autumn tropical cyclone in the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastline.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Monday, September 2, 2024 at 2:05 A.M. CT​
 
BHS1975 said:
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Also, fwiw 8/24 sunspots were the highest of any August (215) since way back in Aug 1991. Although highly debatable due partially to many never hearing about it before, met Joe D’Aleo (aka “Dr. Dewpoint”: anyone else remember him? This was way before our Dewpoint Dan became famous) has recently said these things:

“We have mentioned the strong solar spike which research has shown can suppress hurricane activity.”

“One negative may be the big spike in solar in cycle 25. Most cycles have had a dual max and recent ones had the second one higher. This warms the upper atmosphere and hampers development.”

So, in theory at least, that could stabilize the atmosphere. I just learned about this a few days ago. From other things I’ve read as well as my own analysis, it’s possible that the ACE ceiling during very high sunspots could be reduced somewhat. But otherwise the correlation doesn’t appear to be strong, regardless.
 
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12Z UKMET has a strong TS form well off the US E coast Wed night that then moves NE and hits Nova Scotia this weekend:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 34.8N 70.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2024 72 36.8N 68.9W 1010 34
0000UTC 07.09.2024 84 39.2N 66.8W 1005 45
1200UTC 07.09.2024 96 41.4N 64.9W 997 43
0000UTC 08.09.2024 108 44.0N 63.3W 998 39
1200UTC 08.09.2024 120 47.1N 62.3W 1003 32
0000UTC 09.09.2024 132 49.4N 60.9W 1007 25
1200UTC 09.09.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING
 
GFS basically has nothing except a few weak lows forming in the offshore trof, including the one on the UKMET.
 
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 3–16, 2024
We believe that the most likely category for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next two weeks is below-normal (60%), with near-normal (30%) and above-normal (10%) being less likely.
(as of 3 September 2024)

 
GaWx said:
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 3–16, 2024
We believe that the most likely category for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next two weeks is below-normal (60%), with near-normal (30%) and above-normal (10%) being less likely.
(as of 3 September 2024)

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Crazy. This season will be one of the biggest forecasting misses in modern history. Goes to show how much we still don’t understand about weather
 
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