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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

Thinking outside the box: I wonder if the poles are shifting and maybe causing interference in the physics of the atmosphere?
 
Usually if there’s a land falling hurricane in October it’s in the first half of October correct ? I can’t think of a lot of examples of late October and November landfalls in the US.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
Usually if there’s a land falling hurricane in October it’s in the first half of October correct ? I can’t think of a lot of examples of late October and November landfalls in the US.
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Wilma seemed somewhat late in October from what I remember going through it.

I think it hit right when we went from DST to Standard time. So we were without power and in the dark earlier.


Just googled and saw that it hit Florida on October 24.
 
BeachDMD said:
Wilma seemed somewhat late in October from what I remember going through it.

I think it hit right when we went from DST to Standard time. So we were without power and in the dark earlier.

Just googled and saw that it hit Florida on October 24.
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Yeah they happen but most of them have been the first half of the month

Sandy is about the only other one I remember(2 days before Halloween) and it wasn't technically tropical then
 
Today’s Euro Weeklies added a new week, Sep 30-Oct 6, and that week is quite active vs climo. In addition the week before is also progged to be active as has been the case on many runs.

So this run suggests that activity will pick up markedly next week though would still be below avg. After a similar subsequent week, activity is suggested to pick up substantially in late Sep and continue into early Oct vs climo.
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9/3/24 Euro Weeklies (EW) mean ACE projections as % of climo:

9/2-8: 20% per yest.’s run (meaning ACE of 3)
9/9-15: 60% (meaning ACE of 10)(climo peak week)
9/16-22: 70% (meaning ACE of 11)
9/23-29: 130% (meaning ACE of 17)(vs peak wk climo of 16)
9/30-10/6: 140% (new week)(meaning ACE of 13)

So, today’s EW progs by week are 3-10-11-17-13 meaning two most active weeks are at the end despite climo having dropped off substantially from peak by then. That would get 2024 to ~110 ACE as of Oct 6.
 
Same on 12Z EURO. Lots of weak lows forming in the offshore trof. Would be a nice winter pattern for eastern NC but of course by then the bermuda high will dominate.
 
Euro has what in a normal year like 1971 might be another Doria. The low off the SE coast comes from the wave east of the islands now. But it just washes out this year.












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Beast in the WPAC.

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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
12z ICON liking the bounce back toward Central gulf as a cane in the 9/11ish time period.
BTW, this is the same storm that the ICON had in the gulf in the 9/11-9/12 period about a week ago.

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Euro AI does the same thing, a bit faster.

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I think the Icon has been given way too much credit this year. It's the only model that is consistently developing some of these waves, but so far has been wrong. It was way out of touch trying to over develop Debby. I am sure the Icon will eventually sniff out a threat before the other models but only because it has a tendency to develop everything.
 
thunderwolf said:
I think the Icon has been given way too much credit this year. It's the only model that is consistently developing some of these waves, but so far has been wrong. It was way out of touch trying to over develop Debby. I am sure the Icon will eventually sniff out a threat before the other models but only because it has a tendency to develop everything.
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Frankly, they all suck at predicting a storm from start to finish.....but ICON has been much better than the rest in the 7 to 10 day period.
 
GFS best start showing something if 10/6/3 will even be close

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With a nontropical low sitting in the central ATL the CV season is over so all 10/6/3 is going to hae to come from old stall fronts. 3 majors? I think JB is going to bust by alot. My upper end would be 4/2/1 for the rest of the season


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Also the huge low over Canada will sweep the GOM and west carib clean and dry. 10/6/3 is going to take a miracle

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At this point I start going with the mindset of "seasonal trends". Caring less and less about what any model shows as they have been struggling. I'll do the same in the winter when models show a good pattern constantly 10 days away that never arrives. Same here, the models can show better conditions but it will probably always remain in fantasy range.

Last week the ops runs showed nothing with the wave but ensembles still kept it alive. Going with the ensembles like I try to do proved futile as that wave is dead. Now we have had an active few runs on the gfs op but the ensembles aren't overly active.

What does the season say so far? Suppressed development for whatever dominoes lined up to squash the season so far.
 
We got our first invest in weeks.
AL, 99, 2024090512, , BEST, 0, 336N, 695W, 30, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 130, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al712024 to al992024,
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2. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the northeast and east of its center. This system
could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next couple
of days while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining
offshore of the northeastern United States. Once the low moves
over cooler waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development
is not expected. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
 
Maybe we can use Invests to pad this seasons numbers 😂
 
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