In the good news dept LC holds the line 18/10/6
Many of you may have been lulled into thinking that the 2024 hurricane season was over. A rude surprise awaits, however, since the Saharan Air Layer is diminishing, the hemispheric conjoined heat ridge complex is starting to break apart, the ITCZ in Africa is flaring big time, and the polar westerlies are starting to inject cyclonic energy and greater amounts of cooler (not cold) values into lower latitudes. The La Nina episode is likely to top off at just above the moderate designation (-1.0 deg C below normal in ENSO sector 3.4), while the Gulf of Mexico and much of the open Atlantic Ocean is very warm (at least 79 deg F with only minor areas of upwelling. This is not, and never was meant to be, a "Super La Nina with record hurricanes". One-parameter forecasting has no place in a business where fear can cause those living in the subtropical zones and affected coastlines to lose confidence in weather prediction at critical times. I will hold to my original 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major cyclones seasonal call.
