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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

lexxnchloe said:
Ive been telling that to the ATL for a month now :rolleyes:



Just 2 weak lows on the EURO.
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I think what was meant is giving credence to individual deterministic model runs. Show the ensembles far out and then once there is really something to talk about then discuss the individuals. Just a guess though!
 
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Big difference from 12z which had nothing. 0Z has the beginnings of the Carolina storm amd 2 others

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GFS, ICON, CMC, AI and NAVGEM all seem to be picking up on a storm in the western gulf that eventually brings it toward the MidSouth. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Outside of any potential major impacts, we could definitely use the rain.
 
The area being highlighted by the NHC around the Yucatán, is that what most models are picking up on moving a storm toward the northern gulf coast? Seems like the GFS on the 06Z has an area of low pressure in the gulf that then dives south. Just seems a little odd to me.
 
NWMSGuy said:
The area being highlighted by the NHC around the Yucatán, is that what most models are picking up on moving a storm toward the northern gulf coast? Seems like the GFS on the 06Z has an area of low pressure in the gulf that then dives south. Just seems a little odd to me.
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Yes and there is a 90L invest thread about it.
 
60%

. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is forecast to
develop while the wave interacts with a frontal boundary during
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
slowly northwestward to northward over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

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Henry2326 said:
60%

. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is forecast to
develop while the wave interacts with a frontal boundary during
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
slowly northwestward to northward over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

View attachment 150800
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91L Thread
 
GFS has been alternating which low it develops. 6Z it developed the first 1 and the 2nd died. 12Z it killed the first one and the 2 nd was too far out to get close. 18Z its developing the first 1 again.


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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance
is forecast to drift slowly northward during the next several days
while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves
generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas
through the middle of next week. Interests along the western Gulf of
Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic has begun to show signs
of organization. Gradual additional development is possible while
the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic through
Monday and then moves generally westward at about 10 mph through the
rest of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. The disturbance is expected to move very
little during the next few days until it potentially interacts with
a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa by early Monday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle or late portions of next week.
The system is expected to begin moving slowly westward by the end
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


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92L

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