Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Brent]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Brent]

NHC getting more interested

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS says big

 

[Chazwin]

GFS says big

View attachment 150505

With the trough coming in from the west, that’s a set up that could pull lots of moisture very far north as a storm approaches the Florida Panhandle

 

[lexxnchloe]

With the trough coming in from the west, that’s a set up that could pull lots of moisture very far north as a storm approaches the Florida Panhandle

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 150506

Man, I hope not! I’m still waiting on a garage door threshold to be installed. I’m hoping they’ll be able to do so next week, but that’s far from a certainty as of now. Plus they need 72 hours of no rain beforehand. Don’t want another heavy rain event anytime soon at the very least! Fortunately that’s merely a low credibility GFS operational out at 300 hours.

Edit: Last 4 Euro-AI have this go across Yucatan, Bay of Campeche, and back into MX for final landfall.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Curve train might be warming up.

 

[weatherfide]

Curve train might be warming up.

I like to see the troughs dropping in to the Southeast going forward. The deeper the better to kick any tropical cyclones out in to the north Atlantic. Don't want any landfall's in FL or gulf coast.

Just like the cold air damning that keeps the severe storms to my west. It's a beautiful sight!

 

[GaWx]

For 40% AEW:

12Z ICON has a strengthening cat 2 H at 180 hrs 100 miles SE of D.R. moving NW toward there

 

[lexxnchloe]

At 138 its gone on the GFS. Nothing at 150. Will be interesting if the EURO also drops it. Not at all impressive on satellite

 

[lexxnchloe]

Im going with its gone on the EURO. It was a cat5 fantasy cane though. The funny thing is its gone after wxman57 said it would develop 2 hours ago.

 

[lexxnchloe]

I think what is happening is climatology kicked in on the models and they latched onto a very weak clump of clouds because SOMETHING HAD TO DEVELOP AT PEAK. GFS has ended any talk of an active Sept.. I think OCT will be quite dead. The SA heat low is a cat5 this year so it should rip up anything in the west carib. 67/72/83/92 still look good for the rest of 2024. If only we could skip to December and get rid of summer.

 

[Shaggy]

3 days ago models showed nothing at all then became very active. Some like the icon still are with this system. Relying on every model run to tell you how this will play out is a futile endeavor

Im going with its gone on the EURO. It was a cat5 fantasy cane though. The funny thing is its gone after wxman57 said it would develop 2 hours ago.


View attachment 150513

 

[lexxnchloe]

3 days ago models showed nothing at all then became very active. Some like the icon still are with this system. Relying on every model run to tell you how this will play out is a futile endeavor

I hope you are right. If this doesn't develop there is nothing else likely to for awhile.

 

[Shaggy]

I hope you are right. If this doesn't develop there is nothing else likely to for awhile.

Several gefs members are very similar to the icon so there's plenty of time to see how this works out.

 

[Brent]

I hope you are right. If this doesn't develop there is nothing else likely to for awhile.

Like that would be so awful if we just don't have a big hurricane near the US

But I don't buy the gfs off one run. Especially when its been all over the place. Watch the ensembles