Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

[GaWx]

For the 40% AEW:

12Z UKMET: still no TC on this model from this

12Z not so Crazy Uncle: coming in like Mr. Slowsky on the Comcast commercials: has a sfc low E of the Lesser Antilles at hr 99 very similar to prior runs

 

[lexxnchloe]

For the 40% AEW:

12Z UKMET: still no TC on this model from this

12Z not so Crazy Uncle: coming in like Mr. Slowsky on the Comcast commercials: has a sfc low E of the Lesser Antilles at hr 99 very similar to prior runs

Almost exactly the same as 0z

 

[lexxnchloe]

Slightly sw of 0z

 

[lexxnchloe]

Looks GOM bound

 

[Henry2326]

If ICON and CMC forecast hold up, we are looking at a cane approaching US coast around 9/12ish.

Mark this post so we can see how good the ICON is.....

 

[Avalanche]

If ICON and CMC forecast hold up, we are looking at a cane approaching US coast around 9/12ish.

Mark this post so we can see how good the ICON is.....

Rain is much needed here. Ground is dry and dusty.

 

[jrips27]

12z Euro has a weak system near the Cayman Islands at 240

 

[Brent]

EPS still pretty active. This is next Saturday

 

[lexxnchloe]

EPS still pretty active. This is next Saturday View attachment 150521

Euro still has it but it has trended to the GFS 13mb higher.

 

[lexxnchloe]

EURO 25mb higher at 168. Will be gone tonite

 

[weather bubba]

Looks GOM bound


View attachment 150519

If it stays weak, it will probably stay in the Gulf of Mexico. Earlier model runs were showing a stronger storm near the Florida panhandle that would track up the east coast. We'll have to see how strong this disturbance gets if it develops. The odds of some development have increased slightly according to the NWS.

 

[Brent]

If it stays weak, it will probably stay in the Gulf of Mexico. Earlier model runs were showing a stronger storm near the Florida panhandle that would track up the east coast. We'll have to see how strong this disturbance gets if it develops. The odds of some development have increased slightly according to the NWS.

Yeah if this gets into the Gulf it's gonna be problematic. We've already seen Beryl and Debby...

Weaker in the short term may not be a good thing

 

[lexxnchloe]

Yeah if this gets into the Gulf it's gonna be problematic. We've already seen Beryl and Debby...

Weaker in the short term may not be a good thing

CMC has it in the SE GOM moving NW in what would be a highly favorable environment if its actually there.

 

[GaWx]

12Z JMA has this at 1008 mb SE of Grand Cayman moving WNW

 

[Brent]

Well then

 

[Avalanche]

Well then View attachment 150527

She’s gotta go somewhere lol

 

[Brent]

Some huge members around Florida and the Bahamas

 

[SD]

Well then View attachment 150527

This upcoming pattern is going to be a problem if anything develops. Stronger development or a faster earlier motion could get it OTS but anything that struggles along or is slower will likely get pushed into the Carribbean then be pulled north either side of FL

 

[lexxnchloe]

Making a comeback





It tried

 

[lexxnchloe]

Better than 12z







Looks like a threat again