lexxnchloe
Member
TD7 is about to be upgraded to TS Gordon.
12z ICON loses the feature on the SE coast and the central Atlantic spins in place for 4 days ratcheting up to 977 pressure. I think it's TD7.....
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With the big highs that have been consistent over the north Atlantic if there was ever a year for some wonky mid latitude west turns its this yearIs it time to start a thread on TD7 which may soon become Gordon? I know it will probably become a fish storm but according to the NWS discussion there is some uncertainty about that.
Is it time to start a thread on TD7 which may soon become Gordon? I know it will probably become a fish storm but according to the NWS discussion there is some uncertainty about that.
We are wasting a perfect pattern for something to develop in the SW ATL. A seaason where nothing can do anything
Probably no need for a separate thread unless it seems it would get west of BermudaIs it time to start a thread on TD7 which may soon become Gordon? I know it will probably become a fish storm but according to the NWS discussion there is some uncertainty about that.
So 12Z offers many possibilities, lol- Uh oh!
-JMA: low moves NE to 350 miles E of NC/VA border at 1003 (ST or T); then stalls and is forced back SW to 300 miles E of Hatteras while strengthening to 998 at 192
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While it is a weak system inwonder how brisk it would really be with the tight gradient.The potential low forming off the SE might warrant its own thread soon:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
445 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2024
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST STILL DEPENDS ON
WHETHER THIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SE COAST, HIGH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALL THE MODELS ARE PLAYING OUT A
DIFFERENT SCENARIO AS TO IF AND WHEN THE LOW DEVELOPS, AND HOW
STRONG IT IS GOING TO BE. NHC HAS A 30% OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
FOR THIS LOW ON THEIR 7-DAY TROPICAL OUTLOOK. TO SAY THE LEAST,
THERE IS A LOT TO DETERMINE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND INTENSITY OF A POTENTIAL
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.
That would probably get the kids out of school for a day.
GFS has this at 06Z, the ensembles are very meh on it though. The NAM at 06Z would be what has to happen though with the low forming well south about even with Jacksonville FL then taking a solid couple of days to get to NC to get something impactful beyond just rain....I can really only think of a couple of storms that formed close to the SE coast then actually came well inland giving true TS or cane conditions to more than just the coast.
The most dramatic example was probably Diana in 1984, if she had come straight in without that loop and got inland she would probably be the benchmark for my generation. The more realistic one would be Gaston in 2004, but its pretty rare for us to get close forming storm that amounts to much wind wise etc.
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I mentioned to someone last night that we were gonna get "Nam'd" at some point and the 06z 12k didn't disappoint lol.
I don't think I've seen a more consistently overdone model whether it's winter, severe or hurricanes. It's almost useless lolView attachment 151024
GFS has this at 06Z, the ensembles are very meh on it though. The NAM at 06Z would be what has to happen though with the low forming well south about even with Jacksonville FL then taking a solid couple of days to get to NC to get something impactful beyond just rain....I can really only think of a couple of storms that formed close to the SE coast then actually came well inland giving true TS or cane conditions to more than just the coast.
The most dramatic example was probably Diana in 1984, if she had come straight in without that loop and got inland she would probably be the benchmark for my generation. The more realistic one would be Gaston in 2004, but its pretty rare for us to get close forming storm that amounts to much wind wise etc.
View attachment 151026
12Z GFS is sticking with its NC TS from the possible home brew:
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Otherwise there’s not too much from this. That includes the UKMET, CMC, and 6Z Euro (12Z Euro not out yet) though the ICON has a 1005 low 2 days later:
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