• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

GaWx said:
TD7 is about to be upgraded to TS Gordon.
Click to expand...

This had been released, which is why I said it was about to be upgraded:

AL, 07, 2024091212, , BEST, 0, 175N, 339W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 20, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GORDON, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,


But that was then replaced by this, meaning no upgrade yet (psyche):

AL, 07, 2024091212, , BEST, 0, 175N, 339W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 20, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
 
084940_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Track guidance diverges considerably
early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered
northeast of the Leeward Islands. This track forecast stays close
to the global model consensus and places less weight on the
regional hurricane models which depict a considerably weaker
and less organized system. This produces a track forecast that is
slightly faster and to the left of the previous forecast.

While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual
strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and
marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance came in lower for this
cycle. We show the system becoming a tropical storm in the next
day, followed by the intensity only slowly increasing to 45 knots in
the next five days. However, there is potential for greater
strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone
will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs
around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft.
The new forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but
above the latest model consensus.
 
12z ICON loses the feature on the SE coast and the central Atlantic spins in place for 4 days ratcheting up to 977 pressure. I think it's TD7.....

icon_mslp_wind_atl_fh180-180.gif
 
weather bubba said:
Is it time to start a thread on TD7 which may soon become Gordon? I know it will probably become a fish storm but according to the NWS discussion there is some uncertainty about that.
Click to expand...
With the big highs that have been consistent over the north Atlantic if there was ever a year for some wonky mid latitude west turns its this year
 
GaWx said:
Other 12Zs for potential low forming off SE coast:

-GFS 1003 TS that landfalls near Wilmington
-CMC/UKMET: no TC/STC
Click to expand...
The GFS is hilarious. First it has a weak storm hit SE NC.

1726161222671.png


Then it develops another low too far offshore

1726161303388.png

Then tries again


1726161405021.png
 
We are wasting a perfect pattern for something to develop in the SW ATL. A seaason where nothing can do anything. Its just about a perfect pattern for late Sept for a cane to form in the SW ATL and hit the coast but nothing can get going this season. Big high in NW ATL, trof over the central US and still nothing.


1726161686532.png
 
weather bubba said:
Is it time to start a thread on TD7 which may soon become Gordon? I know it will probably become a fish storm but according to the NWS discussion there is some uncertainty about that.
Click to expand...

My opinion is to wait as long as a fish storm remains likely and TD7/Gordon doesn’t start to dominate this thread.
 
weather bubba said:
Is it time to start a thread on TD7 which may soon become Gordon? I know it will probably become a fish storm but according to the NWS discussion there is some uncertainty about that.
Click to expand...
Probably no need for a separate thread unless it seems it would get west of Bermuda
 
The potential low forming off the SE might warrant its own thread soon:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
445 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2024

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST STILL DEPENDS ON
WHETHER THIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SE COAST, HIGH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALL THE MODELS ARE PLAYING OUT A
DIFFERENT SCENARIO AS TO IF AND WHEN THE LOW DEVELOPS, AND HOW
STRONG IT IS GOING TO BE. NHC HAS A 30% OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
FOR THIS LOW ON THEIR 7-DAY TROPICAL OUTLOOK. TO SAY THE LEAST,
THERE IS A LOT TO DETERMINE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND INTENSITY OF A POTENTIAL
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.
 
GaWx said:
The potential low forming off the SE might warrant its own thread soon:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
445 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2024

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST STILL DEPENDS ON
WHETHER THIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SE COAST, HIGH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALL THE MODELS ARE PLAYING OUT A
DIFFERENT SCENARIO AS TO IF AND WHEN THE LOW DEVELOPS, AND HOW
STRONG IT IS GOING TO BE. NHC HAS A 30% OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
FOR THIS LOW ON THEIR 7-DAY TROPICAL OUTLOOK. TO SAY THE LEAST,
THERE IS A LOT TO DETERMINE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND INTENSITY OF A POTENTIAL
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.
Click to expand...
While it is a weak system inwonder how brisk it would really be with the tight gradient.
 
9/12/24 Euro Weeklies mean ACE progs (% of climo for the week) (Euro climo based on 2004-23):

9/16-22: 6 (40%)(has been BN)

9/23-29: 14 (110%)(has been NN)

9/30-10/6: 16 (170%)(has been AN)(16 is climo of peak week of 9/9-15)

10/7-13: 10 (140%)(has been AN)

- So, the week of 9/30-10/6 is forecasted by the current Weeklies to be the busiest in terms of ACE. This run is essentially predicting peak climo ACE 3 weeks late despite 9/30-10/6 climo already being down 40% from its peak!

- As the above shows along with prior runs, the Weeklies have been consistent with a BN late Aug through mid Sept, a NN late Sept, and AN 1st 2 weeks of Oct. So, these signals are rather strong.

- This is the 4th run in a row having 9/30-10/6 the busiest week.
 
GFS has this at 06Z, the ensembles are very meh on it though. The NAM at 06Z would be what has to happen though with the low forming well south about even with Jacksonville FL then taking a solid couple of days to get to NC to get something impactful beyond just rain....I can really only think of a couple of storms that formed close to the SE coast then actually came well inland giving true TS or cane conditions to more than just the coast.

The most dramatic example was probably Diana in 1984, if she had come straight in without that loop and got inland she would probably be the benchmark for my generation. The more realistic one would be Gaston in 2004, but its pretty rare for us to get close forming storm that amounts to much wind wise etc.

1726228384354.png
 
Downeastnc said:
GFS has this at 06Z, the ensembles are very meh on it though. The NAM at 06Z would be what has to happen though with the low forming well south about even with Jacksonville FL then taking a solid couple of days to get to NC to get something impactful beyond just rain....I can really only think of a couple of storms that formed close to the SE coast then actually came well inland giving true TS or cane conditions to more than just the coast.

The most dramatic example was probably Diana in 1984, if she had come straight in without that loop and got inland she would probably be the benchmark for my generation. The more realistic one would be Gaston in 2004, but its pretty rare for us to get close forming storm that amounts to much wind wise etc.

View attachment 151026
Click to expand...

These home-brews can be tricky.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Shaggy said:
I mentioned to someone last night that we were gonna get "Nam'd" at some point and the 06z 12k didn't disappoint lol.

I don't think I've seen a more consistently overdone model whether it's winter, severe or hurricanes. It's almost useless lolView attachment 151024
Click to expand...


NHC says "Mehhhh...."

. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal
boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline
this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development
is possible during the early part of next week while the system
moves generally northwestward toward the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
 
But I'm saying hmmmmm to 94L....I think I pointed it out a couple of days ago.
NHC is at 20% right now:
Environmental conditions, including the
proximity of dry air, do not favor development of this system while
it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

94L_tracks_latest (1).png

94L_intensity_latest.png
 
00z ICON for the first time develops the southeast coast storm.
Euro is in the same spot but not developed.

icon_mslp_wind_atl_61.png

ecmwf_mslp_wind_atl_fh150-150.gif
 
12Z GFS is sticking with its NC TS from the possible home brew:

IMG_0254.png

Otherwise there’s not too much from this. That includes the UKMET, CMC, and 6Z Euro (12Z Euro not out yet) though the ICON has a 1005 low 2 days later:
IMG_0255.png
 
Downeastnc said:
GFS has this at 06Z, the ensembles are very meh on it though. The NAM at 06Z would be what has to happen though with the low forming well south about even with Jacksonville FL then taking a solid couple of days to get to NC to get something impactful beyond just rain....I can really only think of a couple of storms that formed close to the SE coast then actually came well inland giving true TS or cane conditions to more than just the coast.

The most dramatic example was probably Diana in 1984, if she had come straight in without that loop and got inland she would probably be the benchmark for my generation. The more realistic one would be Gaston in 2004, but its pretty rare for us to get close forming storm that amounts to much wind wise etc.

View attachment 151026
Click to expand...

So what you’re saying is, every 20 years…2024 being the next in the pattern.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Odds going up

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal
boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline
this weekend. Thereafter, the low may develop some subtropical or
tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression
could form early next week while the system moves generally
northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on this
system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
 


en.wikipedia.org

Hurricane Helene (1958) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Nearing the United States East Coast, the hurricane quickly attained Category 4 intensity on September 26, before it subsequently reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 930 mbar (930 hPa; 27 inHg). The intense hurricane came within 10 mi (16 km) of Cape Fear, North Carolina before recurving out to sea

. A weather station in Wilmington, North Carolina reported a wind gust of 135 mph (217 km/h), setting a new record for fastest wind gust reported there
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top