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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

GaWx said:
1. So, the ICON is still developing the current NHC MDR lemon.

2. The 12Z Crazy Uncle has a H from this after having nothing the prior two runs and a TS in the SE Bahamas three runs ago:

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The gfs does its best to get something going but its not quite there

240

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282 just cant organize in a super favorable spot. Will the EURO go toward the GFS or CMC?



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From the lemon, here’s some more 12Z:
1. 20% (6) of GEFS members have a H with 3 of those hitting or threatening the NE Caribbean.

2. UKMET: no TC

3. Euro: actually has something from this but not obvious. It has a weak sfc low in W Car at 240. So, well south due to staying weak til then.
Edit: The Control then goes from there into the NC Gulf as a strengthening TS that recurves.
Edit: EPS has a good number of members that are similar to the Control implying there could be a threat to the US gulf coast ~9/9-11.
 
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GaWx said:
From the lemon, here’s some more 12Z:
1. 20% (6) of GEFS members have a H with 3 of those hitting or threatening the NE Caribbean.

2. UKMET: no TC

3. Euro: actually has something from this but not obvious. It has a weak sfc low in W Car at 240. So, well south due to staying weak til then.
Edit: The Control then goes from there into the NC Gulf as a strengthening TS that recurves.
Edit: EPS has a good number of members that are similar to the Control implying there could be a threat to the US gulf coast ~9/9-11.
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1724871493703.png
 
Shaggy said:
Nobody mentioning the 18z gefs? This is a 3 run trend. @GaHow many members jumped on board at 18z?

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Per my eyeballs, I count at least 13 of the 31 GEFS members on TT with a TC. And based on more eyeballing, this looks like the most active from the current lemon since the 18Z two days ago. I wouldn’t read too much into this though as it could just be a one off run. Let’s see what 0Z shows.
 
Wow, this is bizarre! To review, 23 straight EC-AIFS runs from 6Z 8/19 through 18Z 8/24 had TCG ~9/2 near the Leewards. Then the next 15 had nothing (not even a weak sfc low) anywhere around there. Now all of the sudden, the 18Z 8/28 EC-AIFS has a weak sfc low (though not a TC) that forms on 9/2 near the central Lesser Antilles (so a little S of those 23 runs).
 
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