LickWx
Member
Booo I’m in Charleston sc Saturday through Monday boooooo
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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS strongest yet with the Carolina storm but now its the mid-atlantic storm
lexxnchloe
Member
First time it shows up on the JMA
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
After Francine and a possible SE coast storm the pickings are still bare.
lexxnchloe
Member
JB says the pickings will be bountiful and is also talking about the carolina storm
lexxnchloe
Member
Looks like in the battle between JB and Morris, Morris wins in a first round KO. GFS totally dead. Sept may end up 1/1/0.
lexxnchloe
Member
snowc
Member
So much for an active hurricane season...
lexxnchloe
Member
This pattern is getting weird with Francine moving north then back SE some and this second low potentially forming off of the SE coast
Yep the only outlet for Francine is one the weekend when the western trough kicks out through the northern rockies. If it doesn't exit then it's likely to start leaking SE as the SE low starts taking shape. Imo there's a high high ceiling for rain 5-8 inches for our area over the next 10 days but a floor of 0
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
The American Storm
@BigJoeBastardi
Euro showing in no uncertain terms development of our subtropical worry in the 6-10 off south Atlantic coast. Started covering this Saturday. Week 3 looks like a problem for FLA and surrounding areas as MJO swings into favored phases. Ridge over troubled water persists into Oct
lexxnchloe
Member
0z
12z
12z
I don't think your even answering what's being asked here. Is Francine your low that pops up off the Carolina Coast? Where's Francine on this model, that'll most likely have an effect of these future storms track(s) if blocking remains to the north.
Posting models run after model run is getting old (actually got old about 2months ago...)
lexxnchloe
Member
UM. well i will continue to post model runs that pertain to cane season. As far as where it comes from, why does that matter? But to answer your question i will post yet another model run
Here is francine at 72
AT 96 is where the Carolins storm shows up on the EURO and its clearly not Francine. Franny isnt flying 800 miles se in 24 hours
ITS washing out over SE ARK
What the EURO is developing is what was going to be the superstorm a week ago. Its the wave currently NE of the Antilles
lexxnchloe
Member
Hopefully that answers the question. Its not Francine but the wave interacting with the offshore trof.
NoSnowATL
Member
she wants a major hurricane over her house so bad she can see landfalls in dog ----.
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS brings it back a little
Won't happen. Hurricane season is dead right?
lexxnchloe
Member
Yes. 1 hurricane in sept is nothing especially when Sept was supposed to be hyper-active. 6/3/1 compared to a forecast of 25/12/6
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS comes in a little stronger and its less than a week
lexxnchloe
Member
Its a combo of the wave and the offshore trof
It sure does, your just the first on my ignore list!! Thanks for posting 7 things that could have been done in a single post.
Interested to see how much rain/how tight of a transition zone it'll be from 5-6inches of rain to nothing in SC/NC
Henry2326
Member
Downeastnc
Member
Scary how much the Euro and GFS agree on this and its inside of a week....
Henry2326
Member
Interesting that the ICON stays offshore but pushes part of the low back into the gulf to spin around.
From CHS NWS:
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BE
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE IS STILL UNCERTAIN, SO THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE, BUT THE LOW COULD TAKE A TRACK BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD. MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS EACH DAY, GENERALLY IN THE 30-40% RANGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BE
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE IS STILL UNCERTAIN, SO THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE, BUT THE LOW COULD TAKE A TRACK BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD. MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS EACH DAY, GENERALLY IN THE 30-40% RANGE.
Not a land threat but significant ACE possible with this:
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Updated: Recent satellite-wind data indicates that the system
located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition,
showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization,
and if these trends continue, advisories will be issued on a
tropical depression later this morning. The system is moving to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph and will be moving into the central
Tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Updated: Recent satellite-wind data indicates that the system
located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition,
showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization,
and if these trends continue, advisories will be issued on a
tropical depression later this morning. The system is moving to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph and will be moving into the central
Tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Daily sunspot levels Sept MTD: general downward trend has continued. Perhaps the increased activity in the basin is partially related. Keeping an open mind because nobody knows.
2024 09 01 2024.668 182 14.5 27 35
2024 09 02 2024.671 195 21.1 25 32
2024 09 03 2024.673 179 22.2 20 23
2024 09 04 2024.676 174 26.1 21 26
2024 09 05 2024.679 181 13.1 15 20
2024 09 06 2024.682 189 13.3 19 24
2024 09 07 2024.684 167 17.0 22 26
2024 09 08 2024.687 173 17.5 19 24
2024 09 09 2024.690 156 19.9 21 24
2024 09 10 2024.693 149 11.4 20 26
2024 09 11 2024.695 152 15.7 20 23
2024 09 01 2024.668 182 14.5 27 35
2024 09 02 2024.671 195 21.1 25 32
2024 09 03 2024.673 179 22.2 20 23
2024 09 04 2024.676 174 26.1 21 26
2024 09 05 2024.679 181 13.1 15 20
2024 09 06 2024.682 189 13.3 19 24
2024 09 07 2024.684 167 17.0 22 26
2024 09 08 2024.687 173 17.5 19 24
2024 09 09 2024.690 156 19.9 21 24
2024 09 10 2024.693 149 11.4 20 26
2024 09 11 2024.695 152 15.7 20 23
NoSnowATL
Member
Aliens
Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024
Tropical Depression Seven has formed in the eastern Atlantic
today. This formation is based on scatterometer depicting a
closed circulation center, and organized deep convection based on
TAFB/SAB satellite classifications. Satellite imagery also
indicates that the low-level circulation has consolidated beneath
the mid-level center based upon visible imagery The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt, based on the scatterometer data.
The depression is estimated to be moving 285/16 kt. The system
should move to the west or west-northwest over the next few days
with the storm being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north of
the Azores. Confidence in the depression's track gradually lessens
beyond forecast hour 72 as the synoptic scale flow becomes more
complex. The depression will probably gradually slow down between
hours 72-120 as it becomes caught between a pair of upper level
ridges; one north of the Azores and another north of the Lesser
Antilles. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper trough in the North
Atlantic will attempt to deepen far enough south to steer the
depression northward. How much the upper trough digs southward
will determine if and when the storm takes on a more northerly
track, or if it remains at a lower latitude longer. The forecast
was placed just south of consensus this forecast period.
Wind shear is not expected to be a big hindrance in its
development initially while SSTs along its forecast path will
generally be around 27C. Thus gradually intensification is shown
for the first couple of days. However, shear is forecast to
increase thereafter along with more marginal dry air conditions.
This forecast leans more heavily on the regional hurricane models
which show more modest intensification than the statistical
dynamical tools but could be conservative at the end depending on
how much latitude the system gains.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 16.0N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 16.6N 31.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.5N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 18.6N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 19.9N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 20.3N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 20.6N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 21.0N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake
The ICON (arguably as good of a global model as any recently) on the new run (12Z) continues to be far different from the model consensus that has a surface low form just off the SE US this weekend into early next week. The ICON continues to develop it well offshore the E US.
More 12Z: GFS/CMC have a TS form offshore the SE that moves back into S NC to SC/NC border, similar to 0Z Euro, but far different from ICON
UKMET has no TC identified in its textual output
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lexxnchloe
Member
ICON shows nothing anywhere and the GFS has a tropical storm hit NC but other than that the GFS is dead. 2/1/0 for Sept just continues the dead season.
