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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

From LC

But then again, most -ENSO years are going to surprise you with cases of super-intense storms and widespread/numerous output of late season tropical cyclones. I will stand by my original call of 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major storms. The current roster of developed warm-core cyclonic circulations is 6 named, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major. I emphasize a long-lasting season with clustering between now and Halloween. There is still a threat for a high-impact system affecting the entire Eastern Seaboard between September 30 and October 15. Most schemes show a broad, but negative-tilt trough complex over the eastern half of North America, with a weakness across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula. This plays into the linear wave progression that has linked with the remnants of Francine and a disturbed area below South Carolina. I also should mention that the subtropical westerlies in the Pacific Basin have only advanced to just past the International Dateline; the earliest these winds could reach the middle of the equatorial Atlantic Basin would be in about a month. Lastly, La Nina is approaching the moderate strength range in sector 3.4, while the entire field of warm waters between the Americas and the Cape Verde Islands is much warmer than normal. All of this should tell you that the useful malaprop "It ain't over 'til it's over" applies here. Give it time, folks. But next time, I would advise not throwing "record numbers" out like candy.
 
The various ensembles overall continue to look fairly active for late Sept. with FL possibly in the crosshairs from a Caribbean originating storm.
 
Note what looks like a circulation near 32N, 70W. This came from that further east convection that was separate from PTC8. It likely will never amount to much and it isn’t heading toward the SE, regardless, though it is interesting to see.

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GFS and Canadian both show the same hurricane but they go in different directions. The cat 4 at 240 on the gfs is here and heads to Mexico

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CMC at 240

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Euro is very strange. No cane in GOM but some lower pressures. What it does have is a westward moving storm and between 216 and 240 its moving west at a good pace

216

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240
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lexxnchloe said:
different view, its trucking west

216

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This is more of a fwiw/mainly for entertainment run than the late portion of the 12Z CMC imo because unlike the CMC this Euro is very different from prior Euros. Interestingly, this isn’t at all from a tropical origin and is instead related to a combo of PTC-8’s vorticity going NE and the vorticity associated with that 32N, 70W circulation that I mentioned earlier going N. They combine and get stuck near NYC under a new Rex block. Then a new surface low forms Wed night, moves S, and then turns W (as you show).
 
GaWx said:
This is more of a fwiw/mainly for entertainment run than the late portion of the 12Z CMC imo because unlike the CMC this Euro is very different from prior Euros. Interestingly, this isn’t at all from a tropical origin and is instead related to a combo of PTC-8’s vorticity going NE and the vorticity associated with that 32N, 70W circulation that I mentioned earlier going N. They combine and get stuck near NYC under a new Rex block. Then a new surface low forms Wed night, moves S, and then turns W (as you show).
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Yes, 3 very different scenarios. Cat4 into Mexico, Cat2 just off the SE coast, west moving low at 34N
 
The 0Z GFS also has a similar storm that comes in a little later. Before that interestingly enough, it does something similar to the 12Z Euro forming a weak LLC SE of NYC at least partially from the remnants of PTC-8. It similarly moves S and gets down to 1001 mb. But instead of turning W to NC, it then turns SW and goes over C FL while opening up.

Meanwhile the GFS gives lexx what she craves so badly.
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z GFS also has a similar storm that comes in a little later. Before that interestingly enough, it does something similar to the 12Z Euro forming a weak LLC SE of NYC at least partially from the remnants of PTC-8. It similarly moves S and gets down to 1001 mb. But instead of turning W to NC, it then turns SW and goes over C FL while opening up.

Meanwhile the GFS gives lexx what she craves so badly.
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There sure is unusually strong agreement on hurricane formation in the NW Carribean/GOM in the 7-10-day range with Genesis on day 5 in the Wester Carribean from the Central American gyre.
 
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