Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

[lexxnchloe]

Gone on the CMC and a weak low that buries itself in the YUC on GFS. Basically nothing for peak season

 

[lexxnchloe]

There is a 1007 frontal low off NC.

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: another run with no TC (goes out to 168)

 

[lexxnchloe]

0Z UKMET: another run with no TC (goes out to 168)

Pretty much te same with the gfs euro and cmc. Its dead, Jim. One of the all time great fantasy canes though.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Euro has a weak low that dies in the Yuc.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Peak and the ATL looks like February. There is another wave coming off at 25N

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Shawn]

Living and dying by models is futile.

Models are guidance, not actual forecast.

It's obvious we will have a storm creeping around, of some sort.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Back again

 

[Chazwin]

Back again

View attachment 150556

Imagine that. Seriously you gotta stop making comments like “it’s dead” over one set of operational model runs.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Imagine that. Seriously you gotta stop making comments like “it’s dead” over one set of operational model runs.

Well going from nothing to a major and back to nothing and back to major every 6 hours with no middle ground is baffling. Lets see if there is any consistency at 12Z

 

[Shawn]

The reason why it is "baffling" is because you're anxiously looking at every model run this far out.

The guidance is more than obviously telling us there will be a storm to keep tabs on in the future.

Using the modeling as guidance, we should logically decide if whatever reason it's not developing it is plausible or not. The modeling is obviously struggling with something that we, as humans, should look into.

The discussion here should be: why are the same models trying to lose the storm. What is the difference vs the stronger solutions. What is the most likely outcome?

 

[BHS1975]

Looking at the latest satellite loop in the eastern Atlantic makes me feel like business is about to pick up.


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[NoSnowATL]

Looking at the latest satellite loop in the eastern Atlantic makes me feel like business is about to pick up.


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Lex says it’s over. Sorry

 

[lexxnchloe]

Lex says it’s over. Sorry

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[NoSnowATL]

View attachment 150558

Yep its over. No point to stay up all night and post every model run that the world has. Sept 2 map says the season is over. Nothing ever develops after Sept 2.

 

[Shaggy]

Back again

View attachment 150556

It never went away if you focus on the ensembles instead of every op run

 

[snowc]

A double whammy for Texas?!

 

[snowc]

View attachment 150548

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms that have become a
little more concentrated near its axis. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph, approaching the Lesser Antilles. The
system is then forecast to continue moving westward to
west-northwestward across portions of the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave just emerging off the coast of Africa is
currently associated with an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
through the middle portion of next week as it moves slowly to the
west-northwest or northwest over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percen

And it begins... Hurricane Season is now waking up.