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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

If the MT disturbance does develop its going to be considerably further east at 12Z.



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Way East but we did get some consistency as far as strength. Keep an eye on the blob off FLA, if it could just stall south of Hatteras instead of south of Canada


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lexxnchloe said:
Well going from nothing to a major and back to nothing and back to major every 6 hours with no middle ground is baffling. Lets see if there is any consistency at 12Z


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It’s not really that baffling when the operational models will often have wild swings… especially the GFS. We see it all the time in the winter. I can tell you the experts at the NHC at giving much weight to the op models at this point. They are paying closer attention to pattern recognition and ensemble guidance.
 
Brent said:
End of the Euro has a hurricane moving into the Gulf
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I know you realize this but I still think it’s important for folks to not hang onto longer range operational solutions whether strong ( like in this case) or weak (like in most other cases). But *fwiw* the 12Z Euro has a cat 2 moving NNW in the south central GOM at 240.

More significant credibility wise for this orange AEW, I see some scary 12Z EPS members slamming FL from the Gulf. But others go into the W gulf, some stay just east offshore with some of those hitting NC, and some still don’t even have a TC. So, I’d call it a mixed bag of possibilities.

Edit: I see 10% (5) of the 12Z EPS that on recurving either hit or just miss E NC as they go up the coast.
 
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Also, the NW Gulf bears watching. The NHC now has this at 10%/20% and that could be too low. This could be one of those cases when the NHC is behind when they then up the %s quickly with each TWO and before you know it is a cherry. But it obviously still remains to be seen if this is going to develop. It wouldn’t surprise me if it did based on the near record high Gulf SSTs:


Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana. This system is expected to meander near the coast
through much of next week, and some slow development is possible if
it remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and
the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
 
Not to be ignored and thus for the record: the 12Z JMA (model did about as well as ICON with Beryl TX landfall though I still don’t consider it one of better models) has a strengthening 998 mb TS headed NW toward the Yucatan Channel at 192.

Also, don’t ignore the NW Gulf. The JMA shows increased H85/7 vorticity that’s barely onshore the next few days. There’s still no LLC but it is closer to one. Bears watching.
 
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